There’s something fishy about those Windows 10 market-share numbers

[steven36]

The real question to ask, though, is why this figure is so important to Microsoft

 

 

 

It seems pathetic, but Windows 10 fans are celebrating that, by NetMarketShare’s count, Windows 10’s market share has finally surpassed XP’s numbers.

Yes, that’s right, we’re talking about a shiny, much-hyped operating system that, after some six months out of the gate, has finally beaten a 15-year-old OS that hasn’t been supported in years.

Sadly, I don’t even trust NetMarketShare’s numbers as far as I can throw them. It’s not just that NetMarketShare is a Microsoft partner; this is the market research firm that still has Internet Explorer beating all the other web browsers handily. I don’t think so.

And if you look closely at those numbers, you’ll see that XP use actually increased in January 2016! Windows 10’s growth came at the expense not of XP, but of Windows 7. I don’t buy it.

 

The only numbers I really trust on OS and web browser market-share come from the U.S. government, of all places. The federal government’s Digital Analytics Program (DAP) tracks the web visitors to more than 37 government agencies and tallies their operating systems and web browsers.

If you buy NetMarketShare’s numbers, Windows 7 has 52.5% of the desktop market, with Windows 10 in second place at 11.5%, and XP in third place at 11.4%.

Windows 8.x, the Microsoft operating system I love to hate? I wasn’t the only one. It was the last-place Windows OS, with 10.4% of users.

By DAP’s count, though, Windows 7 has 33.9%, and Windows 10 came in second with 8.8%. The Windows 8.x family took third with 7.7%. And way in the back of the Windows crew, XP came in with a much more believable 1.8%.

 

Why are DAP’s numbers lower than NetMarketShare’s? Because DAP doesn’t break down desktop and mobile platforms into separate counts. Apple iOS, with 18.3%, is the real overall second-place operating system, followed by Android at 17.2%.

Once you dice the numbers, here’s what I see: Windows 7 is still the top operating system. XP, thank God, really is getting tossed into history’s trash can, no matter what NetMarketShare might say. And, yes, Windows 10’s market share really is growing.

But is it growing because people really want it, or because Microsoft is shoving Windows 10 down our throats? I think it’s the latter.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: I actually like Windows 10. I just don’t love it. My Windows of choice remains Windows 7. Why? It just works.

I am hardly alone, judging from the hundreds of thousands of people who have read this story.Clearly, people still want Windows 7. And that’s not just because they don’t want to upgrade their old machines. They want it on their new machines as well.

Microsoft wants you to stop Windows 7. It’s not even fully supporting Windows 7, or 8.1 for that matter, on Intel’s hot new SkyLake CPUs.

XP? It’s a zombie operating system. Who cares when Windows 10 beat XP? The only news here would be if Windows 10 hadn’t caught up with XP.

To me, the more interesting question is “How is Windows 10 doing compared to Windows 7?” What I see is that Windows 10 “seems” to be catching up.

Why is that happening? I don’t think it’s because people are eager to move to Windows 10. Everything I’ve seen indicates that Windows 10 has gained traction not because it’s a major improvement over Windows 7 — it’s not — but because Microsoft has been pushing Windows 10 on users.

I’m asked all the time why Microsoft is doing this. Easy.

Microsoft wants to move once and for all from an upgrade system, where it must support multiple Windows versions for years, to an automatically updated, cloud-based Windows subscription model.

This will save Microsoft billions in support costs. In theory, it will also make Windows more stable and secure. Well, that’s the idea anyway.

With Windows 10, Automatic Updates must be enabled. Fair enough, you might say, except that I predict that sometime after Microsoft has pasted Windows 10, like it or not, into our systems, we’ll see millions of Windows 10 PCs fail because of a bad update. Then, and only then, will Microsoft reconsider fast-tracking everyone to Windows 10.

Me? I still rely on Linux — Mint 17.3 to be exact — for my main desktop. With it, I, and not some company, get to decide when to update and when to patch. I like having control over my desktop. If you don’t care, go and follow the Windows 10 lemmings. I’ll go my own way.

The Source

[luisam]

I don't have numbers or statistics, just some personal experience. There are still many "old" computers around, sold more than 6 - 7 years ago. Probably they make up more then that 10% showed by statistics. Most of these computers are running XP and will continue running XP because owners are stuck with it. They can't update to Win7 because don't have or can't find support, drivers are not available for those computers. People don't throw away old computers as long as they continue working. They may keep them as 2nd or 3rd unit at home or they sell them, so all these old computers are still around and they'll be around for a long time, because are used for work, Internet, watch videos, listen music and home network, not for gaming and XP works. As simple as that.

[davmil]

1 hour ago, luisam said:

I don't have numbers or statistics, just some personal experience. There are still many "old" computers around, sold more than 6 - 7 years ago. Probably they make up more then that 10% showed by statistics. Most of these computers are running XP and will continue running XP because owners are stuck with it. They can't update to Win7 because don't have or can't find support, drivers are not available for those computers. People don't throw away old computers as long as they continue working. They may keep them as 2nd or 3rd unit at home or they sell them, so all these old computers are still around and they'll be around for a long time, because are used for work, Internet, watch videos, listen music and home network, not for gaming and XP works. As simple as that.

Your commonsense logic is right in my opinion too.  XP's more like 33% of what's out there - it's mostly being replaced by natural attrition as machines die.  I can only imagine it's even more prevalent in less affluent places.  I know I've sent my Filipino relatives 3-4 machines & older laptops and they use them happy to have a computer at all.

[steven36]

3 hours ago, davmil said:

Your commonsense logic is right in my opinion too.  XP's more like 33% of what's out there - it's mostly being replaced by natural attrition as machines die.  I can only imagine it's even more prevalent in less affluent places.  I know I've sent my Filipino relatives 3-4 machines & older laptops and they use them happy to have a computer at all.

What i read about most places that cant afford computers have phones the real number 2 and 3 o/s (s)  in the world.  I know were I live  you can go to the hood in the real world were many people dont have computers  and most have phones that access the internet.

 

Saying 33% of the world uses XP is stretching it  there's no actual statistics that shows this . Back around April 2014  there was  but last i checked its 2016 .

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2496089/microsoft-windows/windows-xp-decline-stalls-as-users-hold-onto-aged-os--flout-2014-deadline.html

 

If a person never used a PC before you could put Anti X or some other Linux O/S  on a old XP box that still gets updates on it and  they would never know the difference because they never been depended  on windows.

 

The problem I had with my old XP box in the basement  was it worked fine back when i was on dial up   but I never could  get it to work with my DSL  even with the drivers  that were said to work  and  Ive not had this problem with any computers i bought  in the 2nd decade of  the 21st century.

 

The guy who wrote this article is one the few bloggers i really like he worked for NASA and the Military  he has been a wittering IT news  since 1982 when people used CP/M-86 PCs instead  of windows.

 

[luisam]

10 hours ago, davmil said:

Your commonsense logic is right in my opinion too.  XP's more like 33% of what's out there - it's mostly being replaced by natural attrition as machines die.  I can only imagine it's even more prevalent in less affluent places.  I know I've sent my Filipino relatives 3-4 machines & older laptops and they use them happy to have a computer at all.

 

I guess there is no way to find out how many computers are still there around the world with XP. Probably the most approximate number might be the number of PC computers sold around the world between 2000 and 2009, which can't be upgraded to Vista or W7 because drivers are not available or were sold for Vista and "downgraded" to XP. I just guess that the 10% mentioned is a number based on XPs sold legally but for each legal XP there must be HUNDREDS of pirated copies. You can make 100% legal an XP with a "one liner" registry key.

As for Windows 10 "sales", I don't know if Microsoft counts SOLD for each download or for each activated copy. A lot of Windows users downloaded W10, thanks to Windows Update activated... but never installed it! (i.e. in my case, 3 family members) May I say that many W7 and w8 users were not happy with 10 or even had very serious issues after installing it, so downgraded. Again, I don't know if there is any serious statistics about % of downgrades and % of downloads that never were installed!

[steven36]

I have a copy of XP  Pro  i sometimes use in VM its already activated  when i install it. The thing is most all windows 7 or 8.1  windows users incl  myself were the very same people who swore we never upgrade past  XP   but  i upgraded to Windows 7 years ago after being a XP user for like 10 years  . They are a few who dont care about security or  they really  dont know much about pcs are there too poor to buy a newer one  but since 2011  more people have used newer windows  than they  did XP  .  It held  the marketshare  for almost a decade so  it was good  back when it was supported  .