Imperial College scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK adjusts figure to 20K or fewer

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A scientist who warned that the coronavirus would kill 500,000 people in the United Kingdom has presented evidence that if current measures work as expected, the death toll would drop to roughly 20,000 people or fewer.

 

Scientist and Imperial College author Neil Ferguson said Wednesday the coronavirus death toll is unlikely to exceed 20,000 and could be much lower if lockdown measures continue, according to New Scientist. He added that he is “reasonably confident” that Britain’s health system can handle the burden of treating coronavirus patients.

 

“There will be some areas that are extremely stressed, but we are reasonably confident — which is all we can be at the current time — that at the national level we will be within capacity,” Ferguson said.

 

The Imperial College had previously warned of modeling that suggested over 500,000 would die from the virus.

 

“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson wrote on Twitter.

 

1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID; https://t.co/AfEeePbZL1

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) March 26, 2020

 

Ferguson credited the U.K.’s lockdown for stopping the spread of the virus, but as Berenson points out, the country “only began its lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.” New data shows that the transmission rate of the virus, the measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects, is up from 2.5 to just over three, Ferguson said.

 

“That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures," he said.

 

Fox News host Laura Ingraham said on Twitter following the revised projections, "Now that we are seeing that the ICU bed & vent projections from orig Imperial College study are almost certainly WRONG, it is critical that we think immed about staggered, gradual opening of our country with new protocols."

 

Now that we are seeing that the ICU bed & vent projections from orig Imperial College study are almost certainly WRONG, it is critical that we think immed about staggered, gradual opening of our country with new protocols.

— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) March 26, 2020

 

"The guy behind the doomsday Imperial College model now says he expects UK not to run out of ICU beds and UK deaths 'unlikely to exceed 20,000 and could be much lower,'" American Commitment President Phil Kerpen tweeted.

 

The guy behind the doomsday Imperial College model now says he expects UK not to run out of ICU beds and UK deaths "unlikely to exceed 20,000 and could be much lower." https://t.co/MgwGthcNNT

— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) March 26, 2020

 

Stanford scientists recently wrote an opinion article suggesting that more information is needed before settling on a coronavirus mortality rate and posited that mass quarantines aren’t necessarily the most logical answer to combating the virus.

 

Almost 500,000 coronavirus cases have been confirmed across the globe, and more than 22,000 people have died, while almost 120,000 have recovered.

 

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Ministers are accused of treating Doomsday scientist like demigod: Number 10 has failed to properly challenge the word of coronavirus professor Neil Ferguson whose study sent Britain into lockdown, critics say

 

 

Status of COVID-19

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.

Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios.

gov.uk

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Gates Foundation Funding Imperial is playing a leading role in the fight against life-threatening diseases in developing countries, thanks to funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The Foundation's award of £20 million ... Professor Neil Ferguson, Division of Epidemiology, Public Health and Primary Care. Using computer modelling ...

Imperial College

 

Neil Ferguson (epidemiologist)