Jump to content

Research Warns Against Overestimated Movie Piracy Losses


shamu726

Recommended Posts

New research published by the independent research outfit APAS Laboratory reveals that downloading of movie CAM copies is mostly discovery based. There is no link between the number of illegal downloads and box office revenues. Instead, pirates appear to consume the camcorded movies that are most visible on torrent sites.

pixel-pirate.jpg

When it comes to movie piracy Hollywood tends to be most concerned about unauthorized copies that appear online when a film is still paying in theaters.

These are often CAM releases, which are copies of the movie recorded in a theater. Despite their low quality, these CAMs are often downloaded hundreds of thousands if not millions of times.

To find out what effect these downloads have on box office revenues APAS Laboratory researcher Marc Milot conducted a thorough field study. By using download statistics from the torrent site Demonoid, in combination with movie ratings and pre-release buzz, the research estimates the effect of CAM piracy on box office sales.

The findings, published this week in a paper titled “Testing the lost sale concept in the context of unauthorized BitTorrent downloads of CAM copies of theatrical releases”, reveal an intriguing pattern.

Based on a sample of 32 widely released movies, the results show that box office revenue could be best predicted by pre-release buzz and to a lesser extent by the rating of the movies, which were both taken from Rotten Tomatoes. Interestingly, the amount of times a movie was pirated had no effect on its box office sales.

Instead of a link with sales, the amount of unauthorized downloads was affected by how visible these titles were on Demonoid. TorrentFreak contacted Milot, who believes that these results support the notion that many pirates download movies to discover new content.

“The research findings are the first to support with concrete behavioral evidence what BitTorrent file-sharers have been saying all along: that they don’t always download movies – in this case CAM versions of theatrical releases – they would have paid to view if they were not available on sites like Demonoid,” Milot told us.

This notion is supported by the fact that, unlike at the box office, the rating of a movie doesn’t affect the piracy volume. This finding is based on ratings by both Pirate Bay and Rotten Tomatoes users, to control for the possibility that pirates simply have a different movie taste.

Downloads/sales by movie rating

ratingdownloads.png

According to the researcher, these results should caution the movie industry not to overestimate the effect of CAM piracy on box office sales.

“BitTorrent site users appear to be exploring and downloading the most visible movies, without caring how good or bad they are. It is in this way that BitTorrent sites and the box office are completely different systems in which people behave uniquely and with different motivations,” Milot explains.

“These findings should caution against the use of download statistics alone in calculations of losses – in this case lost ticket sales – to avoid overestimation,” he adds.

Whether the above will be a reassurance for Hollywood has yet to be seen. There have been several studies on the impact of movie piracy in recent years, often with conflicting results. The current research helps to add yet another piece to the puzzle.

Source: TorrentFreak

Link to comment
Share on other sites


  • Replies 3
  • Views 984
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2Old2Remember

what i think the pirate community should do is, choose a blockbuster movie and don't make a pirate copy, don,t upload it anywhere online and see how well it does compared to other pirated movies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


what i think the pirate community should do is, choose a blockbuster movie and don't make a pirate copy, don,t upload it anywhere online and see how well it does compared to other pirated movies.

it wouldn't make any difference. it never has, wether people download it or not, those who WISH to go to a theater to watch a movie do so, and those who don't...well, don't!

movie sharing was not born with the internet or with torrents. this is just another attempt to control and silence, because in their eyes the internet belongs to them. everything else is just "pirate sites"

Link to comment
Share on other sites


Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...