Should Win9 be Free? Win9, Price and Microsoft's Dilemma

[Turk]

By Larry Dignan January 13, 2014 11:00 GMT

Summary: Microsoft will soon be talking Windows 9--partially to put Windows 8 in the rear view mirror--but the real action may be revolve around pricing. Should Windows be free?

——The details around Windows 9---code named "Threshold"---are beginning to emerge, but the real action will go well beyond features and whether Microsoft can put Windows 8 in the rear view mirror. Microsoft's real challenge with Windows will be navigating a classic innovator's dilemma and how it can thread a needle between preserving a cash cow and ultimately give Windows away to hardware makers.

Give Windows away for free? What? How?

That place is where Microsoft is going to have to go if it wants to preserve its Windows ecosystem and market share. And how Microsoft navigate that business model change is going to be telling. The folks in Redmond may laugh off the idea of giving Windows away for free to original equipment manufacturers, but the writing is on the wall. Consider:
•Apple doesn't charge for its Mac OS anymore.
•Google Chromebooks have become more popular.
•PC makers are now adding Android desktop systems because they can customize and probably get better margins.
•Price will be king in the PC market and Android and Chromebooks could be counterweight to Microsoft.
•Mobile operating systems are driving computing.
•Windows 8 was a black eye for Microsoft and it's going to be a challenge to come back from a Vista-ish flop twice.
•The PC market is being splintered into multiple operating systems.

When I consider those moving parts, it's not that surprising that Microsoft is having trouble naming a new CEO. It's going to suck to be the new CEO. For starters, Microsoft isn't that screwed up so a new leader can't be a hero. Think John Chen at BlackBerry. Chen has little downside. If he turns around BlackBerry he's a legend. If BlackBerry fails Chen carries none of the blame.

Microsoft's new CEO will have to preserve two cash cows---Windows and Office---be saddled with low-margin Nokia and most likely keep the company together when a breakup may make more sense. With Microsoft more can go wrong on the new CEO's watch than go right
Speaking at the Gartner Symposium and ITXpo in 2011, Christensen noted:

"If you're worried about what may kill you, look down."

Down to Microsoft's Windows is Android and Google's Chromebook franchise. Chromebooks have become more popular and functional. Android is emerging as a PC option. Both of Google's computing operating systems are free to hardware makers. Microsoft can pitch Windows as a premium OS, but the margins will be increasingly difficult to defend.

The move for Microsoft will be to off Windows free to hardware makers and profit from the ecosystem---subscriptions, apps and other revenue streams. Here's the problem: Windows is a huge business. Microsoft will have to preserve and navigate a move to free with precision timing.

In a research note a week ago, Stifel Nicolaus analyst Brad Reback made the case the Windows will eventually be free.

Today, when looking at the aggregate OS market (phone/tablet/PC), Microsoft is the only vendor that explicitly charges for the OS software. We believe this could prove untenable in coming years, forcing Microsoft to give away the OS and attempt to monetize Windows usage/support via various methods depending on the end-customer. We believe this is the single biggest challenge Microsoft's new CEO will face in coming years.

At the very least, Windows average selling prices will tank. There's no other outcome. To fend off Chromebooks and now Android, Microsoft will have to give concessions to hardware makers so they can offer sub $300 devices. Reback argued that Microsoft's OS license fees will fall to $10 to $30 for each device down from $40 today. Those concessions, however, are just the beginning.

Reback continued:
Over the medium to longer term, we believe Microsoft will be forced to follow Apple and Google and give away the OS, especially in the consumer market, and use services like Bing, Skype, Office 365, etc. as its primary monetization engine. That said, we expect Enterprises to continue to pay for support via various enterprise agreements.

The good news for Microsoft is that it'll be able to milk Windows on the enterprise side for the foreseeable future.

Frankly, I don't see many holes in Reback's case. The only debatable point about Windows going free for the consumer market is timing. This chart tells the tale:

http://www.zdnet.com/windows-9-price-and-microsofts-innovators-dilemma-7000025053

[calguyhunk]

Should Win9 be Free? Win9, Price and Microsoft's Dilemma

It should be, but knowing MS, it most probably won't! :mad2:

If Microsoft really wants people to ditch XP and and also to soothe the nerves of Win8/8.1 users, then it should be free for 8.x users and cost very little for Win 7/Vista and XP users if only as a promo offer. Once MS gets every body onto the same platform, it will also be easier for them more than anything else. It will be an all round win-win situation for all :)

Tell you what, if that is indeed the case, it might just be my first legit Windows purchase. :yes:

[Nastrahl]

I'd rather pay for Windows as I always did than beeing overwhelmed by ads and beeing tracked.

[kn_andre]

Knowing Microsoft for who they are, I think they will Only make up their Mind After releasing the Preview/Beta version of Windows 9 for for Public Testing ... Depending on the Feedback of the Public and its Acceptance Rate, then and Only then will they make up their Mind as to either Give it Free or if to Sell it ( at what rate ) .. Cheers for Sharing ...

[mosaji]

I can pay 10 USD per license for windows 9 if they bring the start button back otherwise it's november_rain's membership

[CODYQX4]

.

Edited April 28, 2019 by CODYQX4

[calguyhunk]

I can pay 10 USD per license for windows 9 if they bring the start button back otherwise it's november_rain's membership

Duuude! :thumbsup:

Edited January 14, 2014 by calguyhunk

[calguyhunk]

Double Post :P :chair:

Edited January 14, 2014 by calguyhunk

[edwardecl]

Well what Microsoft should do is instead of buying a license to a version of Windows, they should sell a license for a number of years of support with a clear schedule of releases. So buy a 3 - 5 year license that would obviously covers two or more versions of Windows for reasonable price (£100?). Hell they could even make it more like Ubuntu and have 6 month/yearly releases with long time support versions, with a system as easy as Ubuntu/Debian to upgrade via the internet.

People should be able to comment on features and bugs they want fixed, and as long as they have over so many registered comments they should do what the people want within reason. This is what the in between versions should be for, testing things out and fixing things they have overlooked. It would focus the team more on what people want rather than going off on a tangent making things just for the sake of it.

If they want to build mobile or tablet versions they should clearly be separate or an addon.

[MidnightDistortions]

Well it would be smart for MS to release W9 for free, but i highly doubt that the developers would go along for it. Maybe have it on sale or something for ridiculously cheap or something. Just that i wouldn't give away free dvds as those cost money to build and MS would just still be losing some money in case W9 doesn't go right. However there should be free upgrades from W7 or W8 as an apology.

There are so many problems with W8 right now and Windows update is so annoying that i have to do it manually or else my computer will restart if i am away doing something else or watching movies/tv shows on it. In the end though, I will take W9 for free because i already made my mind up on moving to Linux. Not spending money on a new Windows system if i don't have to.

[demoneye]

windows 20 maybe will be free , until that forget about it :)

Hey , you can always try LinuX ... i am actually using Ubuntu 12.04 dual boot with win XP (yes win XP :D )

peace :wub:

Edited January 14, 2014 by demoneye

[spudboy]

I'd rather pay for Windows as I always did than beeing overwhelmed by ads and beeing tracked.

If you're concerned with being tracked, you should probably not use the internet. ;)

[Alanon]

It Windows is free then they will find other ways of bilking money out of users. I don't like that idea. Huge :shit: potential

Edited January 14, 2014 by Alanon

[Airstream_Bill]

I can pay 10 USD per license for windows 9 if they bring the start button back otherwise it's november_rain's membership

I love your statement.

[Whoopenstein]

Should be 45-50 bucks. Something most people could afford. That would reduce piracy quite a bit.

[Ashish]

Well, if any product is free then the consumer itself is the product

[Nastrahl]

I'd rather pay for Windows as I always did than beeing overwhelmed by ads and beeing tracked.

If you're concerned with being tracked, you should probably not use the internet. ;)

An extreme anwser for a legitimate issue solves nothing.

[Turk]

Could Microsoft's Windows 9 be free? By Christopher Morris Yahoo Contributor Network – 16 hours ago

After the disaster that was Windows: Millennium Edition, you would have thought that Microsoft would have learned their lesson. It would seem essential for the software giant to ensure that no more critically panned versions of Windows were released given that it's their flagship product, at least in software terms.

Unfortunately, they seem to have dropped the ball somewhat with regard to their most recent operating system, with Windows 8 not very well received at all. Abandoning the start menu in Windows appears to have been a particularly dire decision, and even Frank Shaw, a Microsoft corporate vice president, has acknowledged that the software has been very poorly received.

This would have been bad news for Microsoft in any climate. However, back in the latter part of the last century, they unquestionably ruled the software roost. Even though there are many advocates of Linux, Windows really had no realistic competitors at that time. Today, the situation is very different, with Apple's iMac becoming an ever more mainstream platform, and all sorts of competitors in the tablet and laptop market, Google's Chromebooks in particular gaining ground in the last couple of years.

Thus, Microsoft have engaged in a policy of damage limitation, given the fact that competitors of the likes of Apple and Google cannot be dismissed lightly. In the last 48 hours, Microsoft have announced that they are essentially ditching Windows 8, and releasing a brand new version of Windows next year, which they are labelling Windows 9, even though it will in fact be a modified version of Windows 8.

It hasn't been the best of years for Microsoft in many ways, as their Xbox One console appears to be decisively second in the two-horse race with the Playstation 4. So the corporation needs some good news pretty rapidly in the increasingly competitive tech sector, they need Windows 9 to be enthusiastically received and to be a big hit.

One of the most interesting suggestions which has thus been made with regard to this new Windows release is that it will be free of charge. This may seem unfathomable given that Microsoft have previously expected to collect circa £100 per copy of Windows sold, but it may be that they have to develop a new business model in this highly competitive culture. Apple now offer their Lion operating system completely free, and given that the experience of using a Mac is often favourably compared to a PC, it is clear that Microsoft cannot take their hegemony for granted any longer. The threat posed by a company the size of Google hardly needs to be outlined.

It was unthinkable not that long ago that there would even be a new version of Windows, let alone that Microsoft might change their entire ethos and offer it for free. But desperate times call for desperate measures and by essentially scrapping the piece of software that they released to fanfares less than 18 months ago, Microsoft have acknowledged that drastic action is required. Don't bet against it being the last surprise regarding Windows 9.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/could-microsoft-39-windows-9-free-102500073.html#pGAhbpg

[zonar2]

Should be 45-50 bucks. Something most people could afford. That would reduce piracy quite a bit.

I agree with that, let us say (in euros) 29.99 !