XP decline stalls as users hold onto aged OS despite 2014 deadline

[nsane.forums]

A third of all Windows users could still be running XP when Microsoft pulls patch plug in 53 weeks

The decline in usage share of Windows XP, which is slated for retirement in 53 weeks, has slowed significantly, hinting that millions of its users will hold onto the operating system much longer than some, including Microsoft, expect.

Data published monthly by California-based Web analytics company Net Applications indicates that XP's long-running slide has virtually stalled since Jan. 1.

In the past three months, Windows XP's monthly drop in share has averaged just 0.12 of a percentage point. That's less than a fifth as much as the 12-month average of 0.68 percentage points.

Windows XP's decline in the last six months (blue line) has slowed significantly from the prior period (red), as its flatter trend line (black) shows.

Other averages point to a major deceleration in declining usage share: XP's most recent six-month average decrease of 0.42 percentage points was less than half the 0.94 point average for the prior six months.

Likewise for longer timespans. In the last 12 months, Windows XP has dropped an average of 0.68 percentage points, while in the 12 months prior it fell by 0.83 percentage points.

In other words, in the second half of a 12-month stretch, XP's decline slowed by 55%; in the second year of a two-year span, it slowed 18%.

The slowdown paints a picture that must depress Microsoft, which has been banging the upgrade drum at Windows XP users for nearly two years, and has repeatedly warned them that free security updates will stop after April 8, 2014.

Net Applications' data can also be used to roughly plot XP's future usage share.

If the average decline of the last 12 months holds, XP will still account for 30% of all personal computers at the end of April 2014, or 33% of all systems expected to be running Windows at that time.

Recent estimates of XP's future by analysts, however, have been more conservative, with experts from Gartner and Forrester Research predicting that 10% to 20% of enterprise systems will still be on the aged OS when support stops.

Microsoft has not pegged XP's current corporate share, but the Redmond, Wash., software developer clearly knows it's large: In January, during the company's last quarterly earnings call, CFO Peter Klein said 60% of all enterprise PCs were running Windows 7.

Since few businesses adopted Windows Vista -- and with Vista's usage share now under 5%, some that did likely ditched it -- the remaining 40% must, by default, largely be Windows XP.

Windows XP will not suddenly stop working 53 weeks from now; it will boot, run applications and connect to the Internet as it did before. But it will not be served with security updates. Minus patches, and knowing how frequently cyber criminals uncover vulnerabilities, security experts expect hackers to exploit XP bugs that users will have no way of quashing.

Those same experts have split on whether Microsoft will extend Windows XP's support to protect what increasingly looks to be a major chunk of Windows users. But Microsoft has not signaled any desire to do so.

Granted, Microsoft will have supported XP for 12 years and 5 months, or about two-and-a-half years longer than its usual decade. That will be a record, as XP this month tied the previous Methuselah, Windows NT, which received 11 years and five months of support.

But Microsoft could still rethink its XP policy, and mimic rival Apple, which has continued to support OS X Snow Leopard, an operating system that, like XP, maintains a robust usage share.

Apple, which has never spelled out its security update policies, typically has stopped supporting "n-2," where "n" is the most current edition of OS X, around the time it releases "n."

Snow Leopard -- "n-2" in that formula, having been superseded by Lion and Mountain Lion, the latter representing "n" -- has continued to receive security updates, most recently on March 14, or about eight months after Mountain Lion's launch.

By continuing to update Snow Leopard, which powered 27% of all Macs last month, Apple patched 91% of all Macs last month.

Microsoft could do even better -- cover 96% of all current Windows PCs -- by continuing to support XP after April 2014.

But one expert thought that very unlikely. "I think they have to draw a line in the sand," said John Pescatore, then an analyst with Gartner, now with the SANS Institute, in an interview last December. "They've supported XP longer than anything else, so they'd be pretty clean from the moral end."

To track how long XP has before retirement, users can browse to an online countdown clock maintained by Camwood, a U.K. firm that specializes in helping businesses migrate to newer operating systems.

View: Original Article

[smallhagrid]

Indeed, and EXACTLY what it will be doing here too, either directly or via a VM under Linux:

Windows XP will not suddenly stop working 53 weeks from now; it will boot, run applications and connect to the Internet as it did before.

What a great idea:

Microsoft could do even better -- cover 96% of all current Windows PCs -- by continuing to support XP after April 2014.

Too bad for them that they'll never do it though - they'll just lose users instead.

[LiLmEgZ]

Time to move on, upgrade and get with the times.... all the newer stuff requires Windows 7 at the minimum now anyways ;)

[DKT27]

A good Windows 8 might have inspired XP users to upgrade. However, when future looks shady, I doubt people out there will like to take a step forward. And yes, I do get angry every time I see XP.

[Gamkutopolowk]

Windows XP always error blue screen of death :pos:

i love next generation Windows 7-8-9-10-11........ :wub:

[smallhagrid]

I was just waiting for the 'out with the OLD, in with the NEW' folks to jump right in, and behold, no disappointment here !!!

Related:

I am lucky to have a great friend who lives even further in the boonies than I do, and his PC has only 28.8 modem access on the BEST days (usually only 14.4 though) and what does his PC run on ??

Win2kPro.

Broadband has come to his remote location now, and his GF wants it, but he is probably going to keep his ancient desktop PC as it is.

It's not even about $$ because I've already offered him one of mine for free with Linux all ready to use on it.

Here's what it's about:

Change.

Some folks don't see it as MANDATORY - or even good just because something is NEW.

As for anything that REQUIRES a 'newer' OS than XP in a M$ OS, I'll pass, thanks - and instead use whatever Linux equivalent there is for it.

I'm keeping XP alive within a VM because there are some few things that have no Linux replacement - but I am not married to M$ so whatever they offer, unless it suits me, is of no interest to me.

[Gabben]

all the newer stuff requires Windows 7 at the minimum now anyways ;)

or Linux. ;)

[dMog]

not everyone that uses or has an actual need to use a computer is as hard core as the people that only want XP or linux...the average user requires and needs a simple OS that just works for their needs and... us win8 users are not two headed monsters that know nothing about computers or need to be slayed just because we use the new stuff norare we stupid not to think the way the hard core does... my newest computer came with win 8 and i have no issues... my next one uses win 7 and my oldest is going to run Linux (uses XP now)as soon as i get around to loading that OS just to see what and how it works..i also have an ipod touch and an ipad2 and have no problems with them not being jail broken either..does this make me inferior, to some it does but then i do not do any of the stuff they do on line or off either nor do i have a need to run linux or wish to stay with xp as the newer OS seems to be just a bit easier each time a new OS comes out or the average user

[Ambrocious]

Windows XP always error blue screen of death :pos:

i love next generation Windows 7-8-9-10-11........ :wub:

Not everything is better when newer. Windows 7 is good and in my opinion, windows 8 and possibly windows 9 is trash, assuming that they do away with the task manager in Windows 9.

[dcs18]

Windows XP will not suddenly stop working 53 weeks from now; it will boot, run applications and connect to the Internet as it did before. But it will not be served with security updates. Minus patches, and knowing how frequently cyber criminals uncover vulnerabilities, security experts expect hackers to exploit XP bugs that users will have no way of quashing.

Once any OS is detached from Windows updates, it's time for the Hackers to hoist that OS up onto the wall and hump it royally.

[smallhagrid]

OK:

Once any OS is detached from Windows updates, it's time for the Hackers to hoist that OS up onto the wall and hump it royally.

No biggie.

Running it under a Linux host, as a VM, with zero online usage - let the cybercriminals have their parties & pee themselves laughing too.

My life is headed AWAY from the m$ domination - so let it continue to take all the attention AND the hits.

That is just a fine idea which I support fully.

[dcs18]

OK:

Once any OS is detached from Windows updates, it's time for the Hackers to hoist that OS up onto the wall and hump it royally.

No biggie.

Running it under a Linux host, as a VM, with zero online usage - let the cybercriminals have their parties & pee themselves laughing too.

My life is headed AWAY from the m$ domination - so let it continue to take all the attention AND the hits.

That is just a fine idea which I support fully.

Glad to see good sense prevail - BTW, the online invasion is just one of many other methods of an invasion.

It would be senseless to lament about the Microsoft dominion and the gang-rape by Hackers - in the same breath.

[MidnightDistortions]

Time to move on, upgrade and get with the times.... all the newer stuff requires Windows 7 at the minimum now anyways ;)

I don't really see the whole point of being worked up about people using an older OS, especially those that don't want to be bothered by Win 8's UI. I recommend upgrading from XP to Win 7 & the only major issue I have with XP is the Ethernet support on it. I installed XP on several machines that have networking problems, including on one that doesn't work at all with a wireless card (which was previously working before a reinstallation). Other then that I don't really have any issues with the OS. I need XP for my printer to work (it's not Win 7 supported), otherwise Win 7 is my main OS. In 5 years or so people will probably start looking at me funny for staying with Win 7. I do have other options but for now I don't need any other OS right now. Doesn't matter unless I run into new software problems that requires me to upgrade to a newer OS. I only got the blue screen on a laptop running XP. Otherwise I think if your getting blue screen errors it could be hardware related or that the OS isn't communicating properly with the hardware. I only got blue screens from a faulty hard drive and later on the motherboard which died anyway.