Zeus_Hunt Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Another milder-than-normal season takes shape... Part 1During the active 2005 hurricane season, the usual doom-and-gloom prophets blamed the storms on global warming. "Nature's wrath," we were told, "hath been unleashed". Aided by a complaisant media, we were told this was our wakeup call, come to punish us for our SUV-driving ways. Then disaster struck. The 2006 season not only didn't live up to predictions, it wound up being one of the quietest seasons of the past century. No matter. We were told to ignore this year-long blip, told that 2007 would come roaring back with a vengeance. And yet, here we are, two full months into the season, and not a single hurricane has formed. Not one. Just two mild tropical storms, one of which didn't even strike land, and a third storm which never went above subtropical status. Hurricane forecasters are busily downgrading their predictions for the rest of the season.And so it goes. The sky isn't falling yet. But what about the future? Will global warming wreck all our beach-going vacations?There are two schools of thought regarding the effects of climate change on hurricane science. The first begins with the fact that hurricanes require warm water to form. Global warming means warmer water, leading to the naive conclusion is that more hurricanes will form. The second school realizes that hurricanes are heat engines -- driven not by raw temperature, but by temperature differentials between regions. Global warming warms the arctic and temperate belts, but not the tropics. This reduces the total energy available for major storm formation. It also increases upper-level wind shear, which tends to tear apart storms before they grow too strong. This school believes the long term effects of global warming will be fewer, milder storms. Dr. Gray's comments on the CO2-tropical storm link:The hypothesis that increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases the number of hurricanes fails by an even wider margin when we compare two other multi-decade periods: 1925-1965 and 1966-2006. In the 41 years from 1925-1965, there were 39 U.S. land-falling major hurricanes. In the 1966-2006 period there were 22 such storms -- only 56% as many. Even though global mean temperatures have risen by an estimated 0.4 Celsius and CO2 by 20%, the number of major hurricanes hitting the U.S. declined .Climate change aside, hurricanes come and go in cycles. Professor William Gray, one of the nation's most respected hurricane forecasters, believes storm activity will remain high for the next several years, due simply to a long-term cycle of changing Atlantic currents. A team of researchers led by Dr. Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center goes further. In a paper published last year, they claim storm rates have not risen over the past 100 years, but only that improved monitoring technology results in registering storms which would have previously been missed. And professors Vecchi and Soden's research on wind shear suggests no long-term storm activity increase should be expected.Doom-and-gloomers are silent as another historically low year comes to a close... Part 2Back in July, I predicted 2007 would be a very mild hurricane season. Many called the claim premature, and even irresponsible, despite the fact that other media sources had months earlier predicted far more dire events.Its now three months later and, with the season in the final month, my crystal ball seems vindicated. COAPS, the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, has just released data showing 2007 activity to be nearly 50% below average. In their own words, unless we experience a dramatic flurry in activity, 2007 will rank as historically inactive. Just as the year before was. That's right -- two years in a row of historically low hurricane activity. Yet one of the primary fright-factor tenets of global warming is that it will increase hurricane activity. The real world contradicts the fright-factor predictions of computer models. Once again.Is two years a trend? Not much ... but data shows landfalling hurricanes (the only kind accurately measured before satellite data) have trended downward the last half of the century. This is in line with the research mentioned in Part I of this blog, which predicts warming will lead to a more mild climate with fewer storms, not more.There are, of course, computer models that claim the opposite. But like many other doom and gloom predictions, these aren't being born out by real-world data. And so it goes.In 2005, a single hurricane season was used to justify all sorts of media scare stories about the effects of global warming. Now, with two very low years behind us -- and a century of gradual declines -- the media is suspiciously silent. Obviously bad news sells better than good ... but doesn't the public deserve some truth?View : Original Article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dock98 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 i dont know z you might ask New Orleans and gulf coast folks if they had a hurricane.Katrina..i think this global warming is a natural phenomena anyway.i do think we are not helping the earth with all our shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus_Hunt Posted October 30, 2007 Author Share Posted October 30, 2007 Few Quotes from the site...Makes me sick to no end to hear those idiots at CNN and NOAA harp on and on about how bad the next season will be.I must agree with you that the media does harp on all the bad; nary the good.If you think CNN is bad now...wait till they release the new movie "Planet In Peril" that claims the fires WERE contributed by global warming!CNN = Corrupt News NetworkWhere are all the Gore Kool-aid drinkers?They are too busy trying to save the 4 drowning polar bears....Like the last one ;)Should watch less television... just want to sell stories. Local news/National news would be better I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dock98 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Few Quotes from the site...Makes me sick to no end to hear those idiots at CNN and NOAA harp on and on about how bad the next season will be.I must agree with you that the media does harp on all the bad; nary the good.If you think CNN is bad now...wait till they release the new movie "Planet In Peril" that claims the fires WERE contributed by global warming!CNN = Corrupt News NetworkWhere are all the Gore Kool-aid drinkers?They are too busy trying to save the 4 drowning polar bears....Like the last one ;)Should watch less television... just want to sell stories. Local news/National news would be better I guess.i quite watching cnn and all the other bullshit networks for that reason.do u get fox news channel there.mostly facts,less bullshit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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