Robots will eliminate 6% of all US jobs by 2021, report says

[rasbridge]

By 2021, robots will have eliminated 6% of all jobs in the US, starting with customer service representatives and eventually truck and taxi drivers. That’s just one cheery takeaway from a report released by market research company Forrester this week.

 

These robots, or intelligent agents, represent a set of AI-powered systems that can understand human behavior and make decisions on our behalf. Current technologies in this field include virtual assistants like Alexa, Cortana, Siri and Google Now as well as chatbots and automated robotic systems. For now, they are quite simple, but over the next five years they will become much better at making decisions on our behalf in more complex scenarios, which will enable mass adoption of breakthroughs like self-driving cars.

 

These robots can be helpful for companies looking to cut costs, but not so good if you’re an employee working in a simple-to-automate field.

 

“By 2021 a disruptive tidal wave will begin. Solutions powered by AI/cognitive technology will displace jobs, with the biggest impact felt in transportation, logistics, customer service and consumer services,” said Forrester’s Brian Hopkins in the report.

 

The Inevitable Robot Uprising has already started, with at least 45% of US online adults saying they use at least one of the aforementioned digital concierges. Intelligent agents can access calendars, email accounts, browsing history, playlists, purchases and media viewing history to create a detailed view of any given individual. With this knowledge, virtual agents can provide highly customized assistance, which is valuable to shops or banks trying to deliver better customer service.

 

Forrester paints a picture of the not-too-distant future.

 

“The doorbell rings, and it’s the delivery of a new pair of running shoes, in the right style, color and size, just as you needed to replace your old ones. And here’s the kicker: you didn’t order them. Your intelligent agent did.”

 

In the transportation industry, Uber, Google and Tesla are working on driverless cars, while similar technology is creeping its way into trucking to replace expensive human drivers.

 

It’s easy to get dazzled by such innovations, but what happens to the 6%? The call center staff, the taxi drivers and the truckers. There may be new jobs created to oversee and maintain these automated systems, but they will require an entirely different skillset.

 

“Six percent is huge. In an economy that’s really not creating regular full-time jobs, the ability of people to easily find new employment is going to diminish. So we will have people wanting to work and struggling to find jobs because the same trends are beginning to occur in other historically richer job creation areas like banking, retail and healthcare,” said Andy Stern, the former president of the Service Employees International Union.

 

 

“It’s an early warning sign and I think it just portends a massive wind of change in the future.”

 

Studies have shown that higher rates of unemployment are linked to less volunteerism and higher crime. Taxi drivers around the world have already reacted with violent protest to the arrival of ride-hailing app Uber. Imagine how people react when Uber eliminates drivers from its fleet.

 

“There is a lot of correlation between unemployment and drug use,” said Stern. “Clearly over time, particularly in urban settings, the lack of employment is tinder for lighting a fire of social unrest.”

 

The challenge posed by automation is not being taken seriously enough at a policy level, Stern added. “Politicians would rather talk about getting a college degree and technical skill training, things that are probably five to 10 years too late. We don’t really have a plan and we don’t appreciate how quickly the future is arriving.”

 

Does this mean we’re all doomed? “No. But what level of pain do people have to experience and what level of social unrest has to be created before the government acts?

 

Workers, many of whom don’t have technical skills, are competing for less and less jobs. If the market works without intervention we’re going to have no way to mediate the displacement.”

 

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/sep/13/artificial-intelligence-robots-threat-jobs-forrester-report

[flash48]

We cannot stop progress. The Target store in my area recently went to self checkout. There is only one or two check out registers open at a time for the customers who cannot cope with a machine.

 

One day someone will invent a WiFi brain implant and our way of living will change in a major way.  All a person has to do is think of a question and the answer will just pop into your head.  Imagine, you will be able to communicate with anyone in the world without talking.  This may put the phone companies out of business.  Hopefully we all do not become Borgs!

[pc71520]

https://www.cnet.com/news/robots-could-make-half-the-world-unemployed-in-30-years-says-prof/

[truemate]

war against robots.... 

no skynet

[luisam]

On 25/1/2017 at 3:44 PM, rasbridge said:

“The doorbell rings, and it’s the delivery of a new pair of running shoes, in the right style, color and size, just as you needed to replace your old ones. And here’s the kicker: you didn’t order them. Your intelligent agent did.”

 

This is a rather simplist affirmation and actually it makes no sense. Your "intelligent agent" simply never will guess the style of shoes you might like next year! FASHION is a really strange issue. Believe it or not, some people even might continue using last year's shoes! Of course, "shoe" is a generic term; might apply to any "fashionable" stuff.

So, the same way, "intelligent agent" won't guess the music you'll like, the books you want to read or the new gadget you might or not buy; not even sure if you want to renew your Credit Card! Probably the rejection rate of choices made by an "intelligent agent" might be too high to be commercially feasible.

Drivers can't be replaced. Probably not even in passanger cars, though there are some experiments; less in trucking.  Even in 100% computer-managed Metro trains with no aleatory surface transit, there is a DRIVER!

Of course, near future will be hard for unskilled workers, some skills might be useless and some new skils might arise

Computers making decisions in "our behalf"? No way!

 

 

[Fallon]

On 1/25/2017 at 8:44 PM, rasbridge said:

In an economy that’s really not creating regular full-time jobs, the ability of people to easily find new employment is going to diminish. So we will have people wanting to work and struggling to find jobs because the same trends are beginning to occur in other historically richer job creation areas like banking, retail and healthcare,” said Andy Stern, the former president of the Service Employees International Union.

 

There will be regular full-time jobs, but more will likely disappear.

 

On 1/26/2017 at 1:56 PM, flash48 said:

One day someone will invent a WiFi brain implant and our way of living will change in a major way.  All a person has to do is think of a question and the answer will just pop into your head.  Imagine, you will be able to communicate with anyone in the world without talking.

 

There is research being done about the signals of thinking. These signals can also be translated when the words are not uttered. Different from WiFi, it is not out of reach and could become a reality one day.

 

On 1/27/2017 at 4:32 PM, luisam said:

  Even in 100% computer-managed Metro trains with no aleatory surface transit, there is a DRIVER!

List of automated urban metro subway systems