humble3d Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Technological singularity... The technological singularity is a hypothetical event in which an upgradable intelligent agent (such as a computer running software-based artificial general intelligence) enters a 'runaway reaction' of self-improvement cycles, with each new and more intelligent generation appearing more and more rapidly, causing an intelligence explosion and resulting in a powerful superintelligence whose cognitive abilities could be, qualitatively, as far above humans' as human intelligence is above ape intelligence. More broadly, the term has historically been used for any form of accelerating or exponential technological progress hypothesized to result in a discontinuity, beyond which events may become unpredictable or even unfathomable to human intelligence. Historically, the first documented use of the term "singularity" in a technological context was by Stanislaw Ulam in his 1958 obituary for John von Neumann, in which he mentioned a conversation with von Neumann about the "ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue". The term "technological singularity" was popularized by mathematician, computer scientist and science fiction author Vernor Vinge, who argues that artificial intelligence, human biological enhancement, or brain–computer interfaces could be possible causes of the singularity. While some futurists such as Ray Kurzweil maintain that human-computer fusion, or "cyborgization", is a plausible path to the singularity, most academic scholarship focuses on software-only intelligence as a more likely path. In 2012, a study of artificial general intelligence (AGI) predictions by both experts and non-experts found a wide range of predicted dates, with a median value of 2040... Discussing the level of uncertainty in AGI estimates, study co-author Stuart Armstrong stated: "my current 80% estimate is something like five to 100 years." Kurzweil predicts the singularity to occur around 2045 whereas Vinge has predicted some time before 2030. Strong AI might bring about an intelligence explosion, a term coined in 1965 by I. J. Good.[11] Although technological progress has been accelerating, it has been limited by the basic intelligence of the human brain, which has not, according to Paul R. Ehrlich, changed significantly for millennia. However, with the increasing power of computers and other technologies, it might eventually be possible to build a machine that is more intelligent than humanity. If a superhuman intelligence were to be invented—either through the amplification of human intelligence or through artificial intelligence—it might be able to bring to bear greater problem-solving and inventive skills than current humans are capable of. It might then design an even more capable machine, or re-write its own software to become even more intelligent. This more capable machine could then go on to design a machine of yet greater capability. These iterations of recursive self-improvement could accelerate, potentially allowing enormous qualitative change before any upper limits imposed by the laws of physics or theoretical computation set in. Emergence of superintelligence Many of the most recognized writers on the singularity, such as Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil, define the concept in terms of the technological creation of superintelligence. They argue that it is difficult or impossible for present-day humans to predict what human beings' lives will be like in a post-singularity world.[9][10][17] Vernor Vinge made an analogy between the breakdown in our ability to predict what would happen after the development of superintelligence and the breakdown of the predictive ability of modern physics at the space-time singularity beyond the event horizon of a black hole. Non-AI singularity Some writers use "the singularity" in a broader way to refer to any radical changes in our society brought about by new technologies such as molecular nanotechnology, although Vinge and other prominent writers specifically state that without superintelligence, such changes would not qualify as a true singularity. Many writers also tie the singularity to observations of exponential growth in various technologies (with Moore's Law being the most prominent example), using such observations as a basis for predicting that the singularity is likely to happen sometime within the 21st century. Plausibility Further information: Intelligence explosion § Plausibility READ MORE ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html http://www.singularitysymposium.com/definition-of-singularity.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemonforest Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 I read part Kurzwell's book a few months back for an essay I had to write. Interesting topic but, with present technology understanding, the idea of infusing a rationalizing consciousness into an individual subatomic particle feels a little bit out there. Can't think of the name of it and have long since tossed the article, but another source I'd used made the speculation that consciousness, at its base, is already in everything and radioactive decay, by its random nature, was one of the focal points which I can somehow be totally on board this rationalization. Brains are so weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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