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November 12, 2015

AT&T Mobility CEO is right: Let's chill out about 5G

 

While the World Radiocommunication Conference 2015 (WRC-15) is underway in Geneva this month, it's paramount that the world's spectrum leaders agree on some common spectrum allocated for 5G. Meanwhile, it's worth noting some of the work that's occurring here in the U.S.

 

In announcing its 5G Innovation Forum in September, Verizon (NYSE: VZ) set a stake in the ground and positioned itself as a leader in 5G. Verizon led in LTE and it wants to lead in 5G. Its biggest rival, AT&T (NYSE: T), isn't following fast, however, insisting that it doesn't want to over-hype the technology before the standard is even written.

 

Of course, there's some irony in that, given that AT&T has been a big leader in the Internet of Things (IoT), which is going to be part of 5G, and it has been more outspoken about its aggressive moves to SDN and NFV, which, again, are expected to play a role in 5G.

 

Surely, both companies are thinking about 5G behind the scenes. But AT&T Mobility CEO Glenn Lurie had a point when he said there's going to be a lot of PR out of Asia regarding 5G, and the U.S. should just chill out about it because we'll get there in due time.

 

The rhetoric coming out of South Korea and Japan is often unsettling because it sounds like they're going to get to 5G before anyone else, with trials tied to the Olympics as early as 2018. Korean mobile operator KT is aiming to launch a live service for the 2018 Winter Olympic Games being hosted in Pyeongchang, while Japan's NTT DoCoMo is gearing up to showcase 5G at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

 

Mike Thelander, founder and CEO of Signals Research Group, told FierceWirelessTech earlier this year that he went to Korea to conduct network tests after hearing an operator and vendor talk about how great their network was. Turns out, the operators in Korea have "phenomenal networks" that are so dense, it's highly unlikely that the U.S. would ever see anything like what Korean consumers are seeing -- and the transition to 5G isn't going to change that, according to Thelander.

 

That's something to keep in mind as we hear the PR campaign ramp up. "You've got to realize that North America has a different set of needs than Korea or Japan," which are small island nations that are highly dense and urban, said Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) CEO Scott Belcher in a recent conversation with FierceWirelessTech.

 

What works there doesn't necessary work in Wyoming or Colorado.

 

"I think the concern over Japan and Korea is a little bit of hype," Belcher said. "I think we'll be fine, largely because we can't afford not to be. Our market and our needs are so important and they are so much different that we can't allow for 5G standards to be developed based on the regional needs of China or Korea or Europe, for that matter. They're just too different, and I think necessity will ensure that we'll take care of it. The operators just simply can't allow for that not to happen."

 

The decisions made at WRC-15 will set the framework for decisions in the next three to five years as it relates to 5G. It's going to be extremely important to keep the various countries motivated toward harmonization. Fortunately, the U.S. is keenly aware of the importance of continuing to push for global harmonization because so many U.S. companies are multinational and they don't want to be manufacturing products for multiple standards, Belcher noted.

 

FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler recently said he would like world leaders to come to an agreement on which bands to study for future identification for 5G use. Likewise, the chairman would like the other countries to identify for study the bands the U.S. is considering -- among other bands that other counties would like to include in the studies. To be clear, he's not insisting that only the U.S. bands be studied for identification, according to an FCC source.

 

That sounds fair. In the meantime, we should keep in mind that 5G trials and demonstrations in places like South Korea and Japan are just that -- and they're not necessarily going to be carbon copy harbingers of what's to come in the United States. A lot of U.S. companies are involved in writing the standards for 5G, and we can rest assured that the U.S. isn't going to sit this one out.

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What a 5G Network Can Do For You

 

Mobile and cellular networks have undergone a series of technology shifts in their history. The industry calls their latest wave of development 5G – the fifth generation of standardized mobile telecommunications. 5G networks build upon the technology currently being used in the world’s 3G and 4G networks but also promise some significant improvements.

 

What’s Different about 5G Compared to 4G?

Older cell networks were notorious for their slow connection speeds, but 4G focused on and largely fixed that. 5G technology looks to improve on 4G in several ways:

  • Even higher bandwidth connections. 4G still can’t compete with the highest-speed home Internet services. 5G should provide multi-gigabit links to consumers, making streaming video, app downloads and sharing data on social networks a breeze.
  • Better support for timing-sensitive connections. Mobile and embedded devices such as Internet of Things (IoT) gadgets don’t need high-bandwidth connections but rather ones that are optimized for low network latency and also low power (think battery life) to maintain.
  • Wider reach.  4G cell networks still do not cover many geographic areas due in part to the cost of infrastructure.

 

Who is Developing 5G Networks?

Telecommunications companies in Japan, South Korea, Europe and the U.S., hardware makers, technology researchers, and others all plan to be involved in building 5G networks.

The International Telecommunications Union (ITU), a United Nations agency with members across many of these organizations worldwide, ultimately organizes and ratifies the 5G technology specification.

 

When Will 5G Be Available?

The ITU named its development effort on 5G “IMT-2020”, indicating the year 2020 as the target for standard ratification.  The first verifiably standard-compliant 5G commercial network may roll out in Tokyo, Japan as part of the 2020 Summer Olympics.

Other forms of 5G based on draft versions of the standard are likely to appear earlier.  South Korea, for example, may build such a network for their 2018 Winter Olympics, and another may be built for the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Elements of 5G technology will also be integrated into existing 4G networks even earlier and dubbed 4.5G, similar to how so-called 3.5G and 3.75G networks evolved previously.

Telecommunications companies have already started conducting lab tests and some field experiments with 5G related technologies. Field trials generate significant attention but should not be taken too seriously as indications of what future 5G commercial services will offer.

Expect the worldwide rollout of 5G to occur over a period of many years. Just as some parts of the world continued to rely on 3G networks long after 4G was deployed in other areas, the same can happen again in transitioning from 4G to 5G. Only relatively few consumers will be able to enjoy 5G by 2020.

Some Issues with 5G Networks

Big technology rollouts take a long time and can be difficult for any number of reasons. 5G in particular faces multiple key challenges:

  • Use of wireless spectrum.  5G requires expanding into new parts of the radio spectrum in order to achieve its performance goals. Government agencies carefully regulate radio usage on different frequencies to avoid business conflicts and safety issues, but regulations vary by country and can be time-consuming to negotiate.
  • Competing corporate interests. Mobile networks require a huge financial investment from the industry. Companies involved look to gain an edge over their competition to improve their business position and minimize their risk. In the worst case, standards disputes arise that delay the development process and compromise the final product.
  • Uncertain future usage. It’s difficult to predict how consumers will be using mobile networks in 2020 and beyond. The industry is banking on emerging areas like IoT, driverless cars, and ultra high-definition video, but these may not materialize to the extent anticipated, while other disruptive needs might emerge instead.

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5G wirelesss technology

 

AT&T to run field trials of 5G wireless in Austin this year

Feb 12, 2016

Move is well ahead of industry standard for faster 5G

 

AT&T announced today it will begin field trials of faster 5G wireless technology this summer in Austin, Texas.

The 3GPP industry standard for 5G, also known as Fifth Generation wireless, is not expected to be completed until 2020, with the earliest phase completed in 2018.

 

Wireless speeds with 5G could be 10 to 100 times faster than with 4G LTE, which generally averages in the 10 Mbps to 20 Mbps range for users downloading data.

 

Both AT&T and Verizon have ambitious 5G rollout plans, prompted by the recent explosion of wireless video and Internet of Things connectivity. AT&T estimates that its wireless network grew 150,000% from 2007 to 2015, largely because of video traffic; more than 60% of its wireless traffic in 2015 was video.

 

Self-driving cars, robots, smart cities and other technologies are expected to test networks like never before, and "5G will help make them a reality," said John Donovan, chief strategy officer at AT&T Technology and Operations.

 

AT&T said it is working with Ericsson and Intel on laboratory tests of 5G in the second quarter, with the outdoor tests and trials starting in the summer. By the end of the year, AT&T expects to make 5G connections to fixed locations, such as buildings and homes, while wireless connections to moving objects, like cars and devices used by passengers aboard trains, are harder to achieve.

 

AT&T's trials are intended to precede full 5G standard adoption so that the carrier can "pivot to compliant commercial deployments once 5G technology standards are set," AT&T said in a statement.

 

The advent of 5G will be more efficient and cost-effective for carriers. AT&T plans to build its version of 5G on a software-centric architecture that adapts quickly to new demands, Donovan said. That means AT&T will deliver 5G in connection with software defined networks (SDN), big data, new security tools and open source software, he added.

 

SDN is expected to allow AT&T to virtualize 75% of its network by 2020. In 2015, about 6% was virtualized, a number that should reach 30% in 2016. About 14 million wireless customers use the virtualized network already. SDN that uses open source software will save costs, as well.

 

With a virtualized network, AT&T can turn routers, firewalls and other network equipment into virtual functions that run on commodity hardware, primarily servers.

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5G visions in Barcelona: Cars, robots and VR games

Carriers and network builders plan next-generation teasers at Mobile World Congress

 

Robots, cars and virtual-reality headsets will turn heads at Mobile World Congress later this month, but the real star of these shows will be the still-nascent 5G standard.

 

Practically every mobile vendor and service provider will have demonstrations -- or at least visions -- of what they think the next generation of mobile will be able to do. Showing off hoped-for features this year is part of the long run-up to the commercial launch of 5G in 2020, with a few people getting pre-standard forms of the technology just two years from now.

 

Carriers planning those early deployments, like SK Telecom and NTT DoCoMo, will have a lot to say about them at MWC. Chip makers like Intel and Qualcomm, naturally, will also get in on the game. Network vendor Ericsson has already given glimpses of a 2018 rollout it's planning with TeliaSonera, and this week, rival Nokia previewed demonstrations it'll run on the show floor.

 

The new standard will be faster than 4G: Nokia, for example, says it can hit a peak of 30Gbps (bits per second). But there's a lot more in the works for 5G, including shorter delays, which could account for some of its coolest capabilities. 

 

1. Cars

Network delay is a common refrain in discussions of 5G. Executives from some of the major infrastructure vendors say they expect fundamental changes from 4G to allow for lower latency.

 

This is something LTE just can't do, they say. It's less about pushing lots of data over the air and more about making sure the bits arrive at the right time. The goal is 1 millisecond of latency, which would require networks to do some things as much as 10x faster than they do with 4G.

 

One reason to have lower latency is for smarter cars, because auto accidents can happen in a flash. The hope is for vehicles to share real-time location data over a 5G network so they won't run into each other. Though self-driving cars can already see the traffic around them using sensors, 5G might give them better information so they can travel closer together and still be safe.

 

At MWC, Nokia will demonstrate cars that communicate where they are and where they're headed using potential 5G features. Sending cars hurtling toward each other with only an experimental network to prevent crashes sounds exciting, but they'll only be model cars, at least this year.

 

2. Virtual Reality

In a demo that could combine the high speed and the low latency being sought for 5G, Nokia plans to let attendees play catch using only VR to watch each other and the ball. A VR system will track the positions and movements of two players and of the ball they're tossing back and forth. When you're counting on a wireless network to tell you where a ball is so you can catch it, low latency is critical. Nokia will be betting its 5G prototype has what it takes.

 

3. Industrial robots

Another key role for 5G will be to link the Internet of Things, letting cells communicate with thousands of sensors and machines instead of just a few hundred phones. This could help to connect lights and parking meters in smart cities but may also have implications for enterprises. At MWC, Nokia will demonstrate industrial robots staying in sync using potential 5G technologies. They'll each do the exact same thing at the same time, another demonstration of 5G low latency. No word on whether the robots will make anything. Maybe they'll just dance.

 

4. Stadium video

Another high-speed, just-in-time demonstration will simulate a video multicast to thousands of mobile device users in a sports venue. Nokia says 5G will allow fans to see camera feeds from vantage points all around a stadium or racetrack with virtually no delay thanks to its low latency. The company will demonstrate this on the show floor instead of, say, taking over a stadium and pitting engineers from Nokia's Ozo VR camera team against its new Bell Labs research division in soccer. But there will be multiple cameras, views and phones involved in the show-floor demo.

 

5. Remote medicine

This is one of the marquee applications Ericsson is promoting in connection with its limited 5G rollout with TeliaSonera, planned for 2018. Its vision is to eventually use low-latency 5G networks for surgery when a doctor can't be in the same place as the patient. The movement of the doctor's hands will control instruments in the body. "The surgeon should really feel like he's holding the real stuff," said Erik Dahlman, a senior expert in radio access technologies at Ericsson. By the time this is possible, there may be operating rooms on the MWC show floor, but it won't happen this year.

 

With the 5G standard still at least four years off, users will be relying on it far into the future. So even these ambitious applications are just the beginning of what the new technology will need to handle, Dahlman said.

"We want to be better than the applications we can see now, because there may be new applications that we don't even know about yet."

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