5 reasons why Linux will overtake Windows and MacOS on the desktop - eventually

Although Linux still only commands single digits in market share, I expect that to rise exponentially over the coming years. Here's why.

I've been using Linux as my go-to operating system for decades, and I've never regretted it for a second. Why? The list is long but includes things like security, reliability, and flexibility, all three of which have been constants from day one.

In all the years I've used Linux, I've watched the market share for the open-source operating system linger in the single digits, rarely reaching the 5% range. I expect we'll see a significant shift in that number over the coming years, until Linux finally overtakes both Windows and MacOS.

That's crazy talk, right?

Maybe, but consider these three significant points:

•     The majority of people use a phone.

•     Android and ChromeOS run the Linux kernel.

•     Almost everything is done via a web browser or web app.

Because of these three factors, the traditional OS isn't nearly as necessary as it once was. This also means that Linux has made serious inroads in expanding its market share. But how? What about this current moment makes it a viable launching pad for that coveted number one spot we Linux fans have been waiting for since the late 90s?

Let me offer five reasons why this could become reality.

1. Growing frustration with Windows

On a daily basis, I hear (or read) about more users growing frustrated with Windows, and rightfully so.

Windows 11 suffers from intrusive ads, that annoying "Let's finish setting up your PC" screen prompt, taskbar widgets, search highlights, web results in the Windows search function, the TPM 2.0 check, the missing Windows 10 context menu, slow network speeds, insane hardware requirements, difficulty in changing default apps, the Microsoft account sign-in requirement, and much more.

The list of annoyances and issues is quite long and probably won't go away until the next release of Windows (which will most likely either neglect to address these issues or add even more). For me, however, it's the ads that really churn my butter. The amount of ads thrown at us on websites is bad enough, but desktop ads only add insult to that injury.

2. The rising cost of Apple hardware

While I do love my MacBook Pro, I'll admit upgrading from the original M1 device has not been feasible, mostly because of the cost. The low-end MacBook Pro now starts at $1,599 and the high starts at $3,199. To get an M3 Pro with 36GB of RAM, we're talking nearly $2,800.

That's a lot of scratch for a laptop.

The only saving grace is that Apple hardware does tend to outlast the competition. Even so, dropping nearly $3,000 every two or three years is a bit much, and that cost is only going to continue to rise. At some point, consumers are going to look for more cost-effective alternatives. Apple users aren't going to want to hop over to an OS that is constantly under the threat of viruses, malware, and ransomware, which means one thing… using Linux.

3. The lack of built-in AI

Windows already has Copilot baked in and Apple will soon be adding its own flavor of AI into MacOS. Android has Gemini and iOS will soon follow in the footsteps of its sibling. That leaves Linux as the AI holdout, and I see that as a bright spot.

I use AI for one thing… research. Even then, it's rare that I make use of either Aria (Opera) or Gemini. AI has its role in an OS, but I do not believe it should be so tightly embedded. There is no guarantee that the OS's AI isn't using everything we type or view to either create a profile on us or train its LLM. If I want to use AI, it should be my choice, not forced on me by the operating system I use. I believe this will be a growing concern amongst consumers and eventually, they will start turning to the only OS that doesn't force AI on them. That's Linux.

4. Privacy and freedom

In the same vein, privacy and freedom are two important tenets of the Linux operating system. You can even download and install Linux distributions geared specifically toward privacy, such as Kodachi, Qubes OS, Tails, and Septor. If you're serious about your privacy (and you should be), it's getting harder and harder to trust the likes of Windows (especially as AI continues to take on an increasingly essential role in the OS).

And then you add a cookie-collecting web browser into the mix, and your privacy is in no way guaranteed. In the coming years, more and more consumers are going to place a premium on their privacy and will eventually turn to the only OS they know they can trust. Again… that's Linux.

5. Performance

The Linux kernel is under constant and heavy development. With each new release, the performance of the open-source operating system improves greatly. With the combination of newer Linux kernels and lightweight desktop environments, Linux almost has an unfair advantage over Windows.

My current Linux desktop runs circles around my MacOS machines and the lone Windows machine I have in the house (and it's not even close). As Linux continues to improve performance (on both Intel and AMD CPUs) at an exponential rate, Windows can't keep up.

I predict that within the next five years, Linux will far outpace Windows in the performance category. Not only that, but Linux on older hardware will outperform Windows on new hardware. That's a big selling point because it means consumers can use their computers for considerably longer periods without having to upgrade. That's a substantive, cost-effective benefit you cannot deny.

Mark my words: Linux will eventually surpass both Windows and MacOS. It won't happen overnight, but it's coming, thanks to the above reasons (and more).

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