US lightning carriers may or may not save Taiwan

New US defense concept a nod to China’s rising military capabilities but smaller, faster boats may ultmately be just as vulnerable as supercarriers

The US is considering the deployment of so-called “lightning carriers” to defend Taiwan, a clear departure from its use of supercarriers to signal intent to protect the self-governing island from Chinese threats during previous Taiwan Strait crises.

Last week, Business Insider reported that the US is experimenting with a new lightning carrier concept. The relatively smaller carrier will be able to hold around 20 combat jets, compared to the 50 carried by supercarriers, and is reportedly more versatile and cost-effective.

The US is building the lightning carrier concept on its amphibious assault ships designed to carry Marines, helicopters, amphibious assault vehicles and vertical takeoff aircraft. The lightning carrier concept will reportedly help the US Navy and Marines spread out their forces, increasing their survivability and enabling them to simultaneously confront multiple Chinese threats.

In any Taiwan Strait conflict scenario, the US believes that its lightning carriers will be far more capable than China’s first two aircraft carriers. Vice Admiral Karl Thomas, commander of the US 7th Fleet, has claimed that the US lightning carrier with 14 F-35Bs is superior to China’s Liaoning and Shandong, both built off the Soviet-era Varyag class.

Thomas has also touted the lightning carriers’ operational flexibility. “One day you can have F-35Bs on the flight deck. The next day you can have MV-22s and you can be putting Marines at the shore, and so it just is a very versatile instrument,” he said, according to Business Insider.

China’s rapid military modernization and fast improving anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities have likely forced the US to rethink its supercarrier-centered naval strategy in favor of more but less-capable lightning carriers.

In a June 2020 article for Proceedings, J P Bunyard discusses the rationale for lightning carriers. In particular, he notes the need to match China’s massive shipbuilding program and increase survivability by dispersing capability over more naval assets as drivers for the lightning carrier concept.

The military value of lightning carriers is still being debated in military circles, with analysts arguing for and against the utility of the warships. For example, in an October 2021 article in War on the Rocks, John Bradford and Olli Suorsa argue against the utility of lightning carriers, claiming that the ships will not affect the military balance in potential US conflicts in the Korean peninsula, Senkaku Islands and Taiwan Strait.

USS America amphibious assault ship, one of the ships envisioned to operate as a lightning carrier. Photo: US Navy

Bradford and Suorsa mention that lightning carriers offer marginal value at a high cost compared to what can be achieved with more flexible and resilient land-based options. They also note that these carriers would have to run the gauntlet of China’s A2/AD defenses, making them just as vulnerable as the supercarriers they aim to supplant.

Ben Ho, in a January 2022 article in Proceedings, presents the counterpoint. While Ho acknowledges that lightning carriers have a limited air wing compared to supercarriers, he points out that the ships will be deployed to operate with their larger cousins in a coalition setting.

He also mentions that comparing lightning carriers to supercarriers is spurious, describing the former as a multirole vessel that can perform all military operations below the threshold of conventional warfare.  

Ho points out limitations that may restrict the use of lightning carriers in conventional warfare, noting that they suffer from an offensive-defense dilemma due to their limited air wing since allocating more aircraft to an attack means fewer aircraft for defense and vice versa.

Ho also notes that lightning carriers lack early warning aircraft, such as the E-2 Hawkeye, potentially limiting its small air wing’s situational awareness and command and control.

However, developing a major surface combatant that cannot perform effectively in conventional warfare, especially when the premise of operating under a coalition framework still needs to be strengthened and improved, could be flawed strategic logic.

US allies Japan and South Korea may be unwilling to commit to the defense of Taiwan for various reasons. Asia Times has previously noted Japan’s reluctance to be involved in a Taiwan Strait conflict with the Japanese government issuing ambiguous statements and polls indicating that a military intervention over Taiwan would be a hard sell to the Japanese public.

Moreover, South Korea’s naval capabilities are tailored for the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula. Seoul handles its differences with China in a more muted manner due to the two sides’ extensive economic ties and China’s strong influence at the negotiating table with nuclear North Korea.

In addition, deploying more lightning carriers means more targets for China’s growing arsenal of anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons.

As such, the lightning carrier may eventually be replaced with drone carriers, which can launch drone swarms that some simulations show could prove decisive in a Taiwan Strait conflict. In that direction,  Asia Times has reported on Turkey’s TCG Anadolu light carrier, which may be repurposed into a drone carrier following Turkey’s removal from America’s F-35 program in 2019.

As a drone carrier, the TCG Anadolu is envisioned to carry 30 to 50 drones, with Turkey planning to operate its new stealth Kizilelma drone from the ship. However, although the drone is touted to conduct missions typically assigned to manned fighters, it may need help to carry out air-to-air missions as advances in software, AI, command, control and processing power are still beyond Turkey’s technological reach.

The TCG Anadolu light carrier in port. Photo: Turkish Defense Ministry

Unmanned drone motherships may supersede the lightning carrier altogether. For example, Asia Times has reported on China’s unmanned AI-powered drone mothership, which is equipped with an AI system that allows it to carry 50 flying, surface and submersible drones that can be launched and recovered autonomously.

In addition, China last year tested a catamaran drone carrier that can launch and recover small swarms of aerial drones designed to unleash electronic attacks on enemy ships. While still in the experimental stage, the catamaran drone carrier can be scaled up to enable attacks on onshore targets and air defenses and possibly even conduct air-to-air operations, given advances in drone AI and sensor technology.

Ultimately, enabling Taiwan to build a small fleet of networked, unmanned drone carriers may be more effective in mounting an asymmetric defense of the island, as Taiwan has the semiconductor industry and shipbuilding capabilities to build such combatants. Moreover, these unmanned combatants avoid the high cost and vulnerability pitfalls of lightning carriers and their supercarrier counterparts.

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