The final shift: Which manual transmission will be the last?

Despite car enthusiasts' best efforts, the manual transmission’s days are numbered. Blame it on electrification, future autonomous technologies, or the fact that kids these days just don’t care about driving. Whatever helps you cope with this inevitability, the demise of the stick shift is not an "if," it’s a "when."

That’s not to say the manual’s death will be quick; plenty of companies continue to offer three-pedal setups. But who will be the final holdout, the last bastion of the DIY gearbox? Will it be a sports car or an out-of-left-field contender? Put on your speculation cap as we explore some potential scenarios.

Option 1: Porsche

Arguably no car company is as committed to stick shifts as Porsche. The German automaker offers six- and seven-speed gearboxes in multiple models across its 718 and 911 car lines and continues to do so despite competitors discontinuing their manual options.

Customers definitely appreciate this commitment. Porsche says that when it decided to offer a six-speed manual in the previous 991-generation 911 GT3, the take rate for this transmission was nearly 80 percent. This vested interest is why Porsche decided to keep the manual alive from the get-go with the 992 GT3. Sure, the manual GT3 is a lot slower in the all-important 0-to-60-mph dash than a model equipped with the company’s PDK dual-clutch automatic, but it’s also not nearly as fun.

"The number of cars industry-wide with a manual transmission is declining, yet a significant number of Porsche customers are opting for a manual on models where we offer it," Kjell Gruner, president and CEO of Porsche Cars North America, told Ars. "One in three 911 customers choose a manual where it’s an option, and the numbers are even higher for 718. For those drivers, there’s nothing quite like the physical feeling of a perfect three-two downshift heading into a corner. It just feels good."

Option 2: Cheap and cheerful

Porsche is certainly more dedicated to its enthusiast customer base than most companies, but it’s not the only automaker that trumpets the glory of manual driving. From hot hatches to sedans to coupes and roadsters, a number of less-expensive cars could be a final source of salvation for manual holdouts.

The Subaru BRZ and Toyota GR86 twins are prime examples. According to Subaru, 71 percent of current BRZ customers opt for the coupe's six-speed manual transmission. "Overall, the take rate has been around 70 percent for most of BRZ’s life," a Subaru spokesperson told Ars.

Then there’s the all-time icon of fun, the Mazda MX-5 Miata. The Japanese automaker has long said the Miata will always be a core part of its lineup, and come on, can you imagine a world where a Miata doesn’t offer a stick? Even now, in the roadster’s fourth generation, manual models account for roughly half of all Miata sales.

Other small performance cars offer additional possibilities. The Honda Civic Si sedan and Type R hatchback are only offered with a six-speed manual gearbox, and this transmission comes with an automatic rev-matching function to make shifting for yourself slightly easier, too.