Rocket Report: Norway’s nuclear rocket concerns; Ariane 6 delayed again

"When the briefing ended, I was baffled and, if I’m honest, angry."

Welcome to Edition 5.15 of the Rocket Report! We're back with the usual rocket news about launch delays and companies fundraising on the way to orbit. Speaking of raises, is it really possible that Vector Launch is raised from the dead? Read on to find out.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Terran 1 launch may slip into 2023. Relativity Space recently completed first-stage hot-fire testing of the Terran 1 rocket, and engineers and technicians are now attaching the second stage to the rocket. In a few weeks, the completed vehicle will roll back out to Launch Complex-16 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida for a static fire test and, assuming that goes well, a launch attempt, Ars reports. "We are confident in our tech readiness to launch this year, and we’re still marching toward that," Tim Ellis, co-founder and chief executive of Relativity Space, said in an interview with Ars.

There's always a but ... Ellis continued, "But there are a few external factors as we're getting close to the end of the year that could impact the timeline for us. It’s not a guarantee, but it could." Those external factors include other spaceport users in Florida, including uncertainty around the mid-November launch of NASA's Space Launch System rocket and blackout periods as part of the military's Holiday Airspace Release Plan. This effectively precludes launches around Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's Day due to the high volume of airline flights.

Tracking the Canadian rocket race. Much, and more, has been written in this newsletter about commercial launch development in the United States, China, Europe, and India. But what about Canada? It turns out there are at least five Canada-based companies working to develop a native commercial launch capability. These companies are summarized in a new article in SpaceQ, which is (unfortunately) behind a paywall. Most of the companies are working toward the goal of launching from Spaceport Nova Scotia, which remains under development.

Big ideas, small payloads ... The five companies are based in Calgary (AVRO Aerospace), Toronto (C6 Launch Systems, Nordspace, and SpaceRyde), and Montreal (Reaction Dynamics). All are planning some variation on a small-satellite launch vehicle, with some ideas more radical than others—SpaceRyde's balloon-based launch concept, for example. I'm not well enough informed to comment on the viability of any of these companies, but small launch is a difficult business. However, if the Canadian Space Agency were to start offering and awarding contracts, that would help us discern who is legitimate, and who is not.

Orbex raises $45.8 million in new funding. Scotland-based Orbex announced earlier this month that it raised 40.4 million pounds ($45.8 million) in a Series C round led by the Scottish National Investment Bank, a new investor in the company, Space News reports. Orbex is developing Prime, a small launch vehicle designed to place up to 180 kilograms into low-Earth orbit. The vehicle, built by the company at a factory in Forres, Scotland, will launch initially from Space Hub Sutherland, a new launch site under development in Northern Scotland.

Prime time in 2023? ... Orbex previously raised $24 million in December 2020 and $39 million in July 2018. The company also won 7.45 million euros from the European Space Agency in March 2021 as part of the agency’s Boost! program to support new launch vehicle development. The company says it is targeting the first launch of its Prime rocket next year and working toward its "long-term goal of establishing a reliable, economically successful and environmentally sustainable European space launch business." (submitted by Ken the Bin and EllPeaTea)

Norway has nuclear concerns about rocket launches? In what can charitably be described as an "odd take" on its local spaceport, the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation has published an article asking whether the Andøya spaceport could trigger a nuclear war. The concern appears to be that the launch of Isar Aerospace's new Spectrum rocket, probably next year, will trigger Russia into believing it is about to be attacked by nuclear warheads.

There is some historical precedent ... In January 1995, Norwegian and US scientists launched a Black Brant-sounding rocket from Andøya. This alarmed Russian observers, who feared a high-altitude nuclear attack that could blind Russian radar, and accordingly the "nuclear briefcase" was brought to Russian President Boris Yeltsin. Fortunately, before he had to decide whether to order a retaliatory strike, Russian observers determined that there was no nuclear attack. Presumably, communications about forthcoming rocket launches will be better a quarter of a century later. (submitted by SvenErik1968)

Vector Launch appears to be back, sort of. When we last checked in on Vector Launch, the company's CEO, Jim Cantrell, had departed the firm, and it was pausing its operations. That was three years ago, and pretty much everyone had written off the company as a cautionary tale on the perils of the small launch business. But now, according to a news release from the company, Vector is back in business. And just what is that business, you may ask?

Well, you asked for it ... "Vector Launch announces today the acceleration of its focus on US government and national security-related missions," the company said in a news release that said nothing about rockets. This appears to involve resilient space technology, and I really have no idea what else. Look, I've been burned by writing about Vector before. And until I see some actual hardware, this is probably the last time the company will appear in the Rocket Report. If that sounds harsh, well, fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

India's first OneWeb launch is a success. Three dozen OneWeb satellites lifted off from the Satish Dhawan Space Center on India’s east coast Saturday on top of a Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle Mk.3 rocket, Spaceflight Now reports. The GSLV Mk.3 is India’s most powerful launch vehicle, and the OneWeb flight was the first commercial mission to use it. The mission Saturday was one of five rocket launches OneWeb needs to complete the first-generation constellation. OneWeb contracted SpaceX for three of the remaining missions and inked a deal with NewSpace India Limited, the commercial arm of India’s space agency, for two flights.

Costly break with Russia ... Through contracts with Arianespace, OneWeb previously intended to conduct these missions on Soyuz rockets. But those plans were halted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. OneWeb reported a loss of $229.2 million on its financial statements as a result of the termination of the planned Soyuz launch in March. The financial charge also covers losses associated with the postponement of subsequent Soyuz missions, and the loss of 36 satellites stranded in Kazakhstan and not returned to OneWeb by Russia, which runs the Baikonur Cosmodrome. (submitted by Rob O'Rawe, Ken the Bin, nrl103, and EllPeaTea)

European missions move to Falcon 9. The European Space Agency now plans to launch a space telescope and an asteroid mission on Falcon 9 rockets because of its loss of access to Soyuz vehicles and delays in the introduction of the Ariane 6, Space News reports. ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher said the agency had decided to launch the Euclid astrophysics mission on a Falcon 9 in 2023 and Hera, an asteroid mission, in 2024.

Two interesting science missions ... Euclid, a cosmology mission featuring a space telescope operating at the Earth-Sun L-2 Lagrange point, was originally scheduled to launch on Soyuz but needed a new launch vehicle after Russia halted Soyuz launch operations from French Guiana after the onset of the war in Ukraine. Hera is a mission that will fly to the near-Earth asteroid Didymos and its moon Dimorphos, the target of NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

SpaceX becomes NASA's largest hardware contractor. NASA obligated $2.04 billion to SpaceX in fiscal year 2022, which ended last month, according to new federal procurement data. For the first time, the amount paid by the space agency to SpaceX exceeds that paid to Boeing, which has long been the leading hardware provider to NASA, Ars reports. Boeing received $1.72 billion during the most recent fiscal year. The California Institute of Technology, which manages the Jet Propulsion Laboratory field center for NASA, remains the agency's No. 1 contractor, with $2.68 billion in funding.

Crew Dragon, Starship lead funding ... On the one hand, the ascension of SpaceX to the No. 2 spot on NASA's contractor list represents a major shakeup in the order of things. For a long time, NASA's human spaceflight and exploration programs were dominated by Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Aerojet, Northrop Grumman, and a handful of other traditional defense aerospace contractors. However, it should come as no surprise that a company that has recently delivered the most services—and, arguably, value—to NASA should start to receive a large share of its contract awards.

Amazon "open" to launching on SpaceX. In an interview with Chris Davenport of The Washington Post, Amazon Senior Vice President of Devices and Services Dave Limp said the company would be open to launching on SpaceX's rockets. "Yes, we are open to talking to SpaceX," Limp said. "We’d be crazy not to, given their track record." As it seeks to launch half of its Project Kuiper satellite Internet constellation by 2026, Amazon has, to date, signed large contracts with United Launch Alliance (Vulcan), Arianespace (Ariane 6), and Blue Origin (New Glenn). However, none of those rockets is yet launching.

Still a bit skeptical about this ... Limp added that Amazon would be most interested in SpaceX's larger offerings. "I would say that Falcon 9 is probably at the low end of the capacity that we need," he said. "But as you think about them getting more Falcon Heavy, but more importantly as they think about Starship and getting that into production readiness, those become very viable candidates for us." I think it's highly unlikely that Amazon buys launches from a direct competitor to Project Kuiper (SpaceX owns and operates the Starlink internet constellation). If it wanted Falcon Heavies, it could have already bought them. Still, if the other rockets fail to reach the market, Amazon may be forced to fly SpaceX. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

Ariane 6 is delayed again—who's to blame? Once again, the Ariane 6 rocket has been delayed, now with the debut flight pushed to the fourth quarter of 2023. (And with such a date, I feel comfortable invoking Berger's Law and would expect the launch to slip into 2024.) This project to develop a next-generation European rocket has now cost $4 billion and is going to be years late. The delay was announced during a news briefing last week, and the best overview of the delay and its causes came from Andrew Parsonson's "Europe in Space" newsletter. Oh, and he mad.

Preach on, brother ... "When the briefing ended, I was baffled and, if I’m honest, angry," Parsonson wrote. "There was no recognition of how historic the delay was or an admission that some if not all present had let Europe down. And yes, that may be somewhat hyperbolic of me to say, but considering much of this project is taxpayer-funded, I don’t see why we can’t expect more from the people we’ve entrusted billions of euros to." Yeah, if I were a European taxpayer I'd be upset, too. Just like I am with the delays, costs, and questionable necessity of NASA's Space Launch System rocket. (submitted by EllPeaTea, Ken the Bin, and Rob O'Rawe)

ULA shares some information on Vulcan engine reuse. In advance of the JPSS-2 mission launching from Vandenberg Space Force Base next Tuesday on an Atlas V rocket, United Launch Alliance posted about a secondary payload riding aboard the vehicle, the Low Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator or LOFTID. This LOFTID mission will demonstrate that a large aeroshell, 6 meters in diameter, can protect a payload during entry through low Earth orbit. ULA, which is not paying for this demonstration, intends to use a similar technology to return the two BE-4 engines that will power the Vulcan rocket.

Get smart about reuse ... The BE-4 engines are a quarter of a Vulcan first stage's mass and 65 percent of its cost, according to a ULA blog post. (I have no firm information on the cost of a BE-4 engine to ULA, but I would guess it is in the vicinity of $10 million each). ULA says of its SMART reuse plan: "SMART will see the first stage engine section separate from Vulcan, (an aeroshell) then inflates to protect the engines during atmospheric re-entry and a parachute slowing the descent to a safe water landing for retrieval by a pre-positioned ship. The engines are brought back to port for re-certification and plugged in to another first stage from the factory." ULA is still conducting "trade studies" on reusing its BE-4 engines, so I'd expect that we are multiple years away from flight tests. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

Aerojet considering a sale, again. After a sale of Aerojet Rocketdyne to Lockheed Martin was blocked in February by regulators, the engine maker is considering other alternatives. Reuters reports that Aerojet is now soliciting offers from potential suitors, including private equity firms. Lockheed valued the company at $4.4 billion at the time of the transaction, but Aerojet's current market value is $3.6 billion.

Competing in a crowded marketplace ... Liquid engines are an important part of Aerojet's business, providing the venerable RL-10 upper-stage engines to United Launch Alliance, and RS-25 engines to NASA for the Space Launch System. However, Aerojet has mothballed work on its new AR1 engine. Beyond that, there does not appear to be a whole lot of innovative new liquid engine projects in the works, even as a raft of US competitors, including SpaceX, Blue Origin, Relativity Space, Rocket Lab, and Firefly develop large new engines. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Next three launches

Oct. 28: Falcon 9 | Starlink 4-31 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif. | 01:14 UTC

Oct. 31: Long March 5B | Mengtian space station module | Wenchang Satellite Launch Center, China | 07:35 UTC

Nov. 1: Atlas V | JPSS-2 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif. | 09:25 UTC

Rocket Report: Norway’s nuclear rocket concerns; Ariane 6 delayed again

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Rocket Report: Norway’s nuclear rocket concerns; Ariane 6 delayed again

"When the briefing ended, I was baffled and, if I’m honest, angry."

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