Rocket Report: Europe has a rocket problem, FAA testing safety of methane

SpaceX launches tenth crew mission. SpaceX on Sunday evening launched a commercial mission to the International Space Station carrying four people, including former NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson, Ars reports. This Axiom-2 mission was commanded by Whitson and carried a paying customer named John Shoffner, who served as pilot, as well as two Saudi Arabian mission specialists, Ali al-Qarni and Rayyanah Barnawi. Shoffner and the government of Saudi Arabia procured the seats on Crew Dragon from Axiom, a Houston-based spaceflight company that brokered the mission to the space station. Whitson is an employee of Axiom.

Dragon's ascendancy ... For SpaceX, this was its 10th human space mission since the Demo-2 flight for NASA that launched in May 2020. In less than three years, the company has now put 38 people into orbit. Of these, 26 were professional astronauts from NASA and its international partners, including Russia; eight were on Axiom missions, and four on Jared Isaacman's Inspiration4 orbital free-flyer mission. Isaacman is due to make a second private flight on board Dragon, Polaris Dawn, later this year. In just three years, SpaceX has become the world's most prolific provider of orbital human spaceflight. The company now flies more people into orbit annually than the rest of the world combined. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Europe has a rocket problem. In a remarkably candid and accurate assessment, European Space Agency Director General Josef Aschbacher writes about how Europe used to dominate the commercial launch market. But no longer: "SpaceX has undeniably changed the launcher market paradigm as we know it," Aschbacher wrote. "With the dependable reliability of Falcon 9 and the captivating prospects of Starship, SpaceX continues to totally redefine the world’s access to space, pushing the boundaries of possibility as they go along. Once successful, Starship will carry payloads of around 100 tonnes into low-Earth orbit while reducing the launch cost by a factor of 10. Falcon 9 aims to launch 100 times in 2023."

Aschbacher then says Europe has fallen behind ... "Europe, on the other hand, finds itself today in an acute launcher crisis with a (albeit temporary) gap in its own access to space and no real launcher vision beyond 2030," Aschbacher wrote. "My hope, quite possibly my biggest aspiration for Europe, is that this temporary lack of access to space, combined with this moment of novel opportunities in exploration and a rapidly evolving space economy, will be the impetus for a deep reflection of Europe’s modus operandi, leading to a transformation of our overall space ecosystem." My hope is that Aschbacher gets his way.

Canadian spaceport says manifest is growing. Maritime Launch Services, which is developing a spaceport in Nova Scotia, said this week it signed a contract with an undisclosed European company that "if fully realized," would be valued at over $1 billion. The agreement would fill up the spaceport's medium-class launch vehicle manifest through 2027, spaceQ reports. The publication speculates that the space logistics provider is probably D-Orbit or Exolaunch.

A fairly speculative venture ... Maritime Launch Services says it has "Canadian and international clients lined up to launch using small-class vehicles starting as early as 2024" and is planning on having the Ukrainian-built Cyclone 4M medium-class launch vehicle ready and launching by 2025. Earlier this spring, work began in earnest on a small launch vehicle launch pad, which will be ready for use shortly. However, more funding is needed before construction can begin on other facilities at the spaceport. (submitted by JoeyS-IVB)

NASA supporting depots, distributed launch. In a feature article, Ars explores the bold new future that NASA is charting with its Human Landing System contracts. In its new iteration, the Blue Moon lander is now completely reusable; it will remain in lunar orbit, going up and down to the surface. It will be serviced by a transport vehicle that will be fueled in low-Earth orbit and then deliver propellant to the Moon. This transporter, in turn, will be refilled by multiple launches of the reusable New Glenn rocket. To be sure, that is a lot of hardware that has yet to be built and tested.

This is the way ... But when we step back, there is one inescapable fact. With SpaceX's fully reusable Starship, and now Blue Moon, NASA has selected two vehicles based around the concept of many launches and the capability to store and transfer propellant in space. This is a remarkable transformation in the way humans will explore outer space—potentially the biggest change in spaceflight since the Soviet Union launched the Sputnik satellite in 1957. It has been a long time coming. This is a future of propellant depots, in-space refueling, and distributed launch.

Vulcan test firing delayed. United Launch Alliance said Thursday morning that it was preparing for a "Flight Readiness Firing" of the Vulcan rocket as early as 5 pm ET that day. This hot-fire test, during which the rocket's two BE-4 engines will ignite for burn for about six seconds, will take place at Space Launch Complex-41 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida. However, a few hours before the test was to be conducted, the company announced that it had canceled the test.

Last major test ...  "During the countdown, the team observed a delayed response from the booster engine ignition system that needs further review prior to proceeding with the flight readiness firing," United Launch Alliance said in an emailed statement. "We will be rolling the rocket back to the Vertical Integration Facility to gain access to the booster ignition system." This likely delays the debut flight of Vulcan until August at the earliest.

FAA, other agencies testing methane safety. Three US government agencies are undertaking studies to examine the safety issues associated with a new generation of launch vehicles that use liquid oxygen and methane propellants, Space News reports. These efforts are underway, officials said, to understand the explosive effects of that propellant combination in the event of a launch accident. The regulatory agencies are concerned that both LOX and methane are miscible, meaning that they readily mix together, increasing their explosive potential.

Lots of methane vehicles coming ... Understanding that explosive potential will support FAA work on public safety, such as establishing hazard areas and refining calculations of the maximum probable loss that launch providers need to insure against. Relativity Space and SpaceX have launched vehicles with methane-burning engines to date, and it will also be used on engines that will power Relativity’s larger Terran R as well as Blue Origin’s New Glenn, Rocket Lab’s Neutron, and United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan Centaur. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Second Mobile Launcher finally making progress. The first components for a new mobile launch platform for NASA’s Space Launch System, which has suffered extensive cost and schedule overruns, have arrived at the Kennedy Space Center, Space News reports. Bechtel, the prime contractor for the Mobile Launcher 2, said Thursday that the first steel components for the structure arrived at KSC earlier this month. The steel trusses, manufactured for Bechtel by Paxton & Vierling Steel in Iowa, will be part of the foundation of the structure's base.

That's a big cost overrun ... NASA awarded a contract to Bechtel in 2019 to design and build the mobile launcher, which will be used by the larger Block 1B version of the SLS. That cost-plus contract was originally valued at $383 million, with delivery of ML-2 scheduled for March 2023. However, the development of the structure has suffered serious delays and cost overruns. An audit by NASA’s Office of Inspector General in June 2022 concluded that the structure would cost up to $1.5 billion and not be completed until late 2027. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Next three launches

May 26: Electron | TROPICS 3 | Māhia Peninsula, New Zealand | 03:30 UTC

May 26: Soyuz 2.1a | Kondor-FKA no. 1 | Vostochny Cosmodrome, Russia | 21:14 UTC

May 27: Falcon 9 | Arabsat 7B | Kennedy Space Center, Fla. | 03:25 UTC