Rocket Report: China launches 3-man crew; SpaceX adds to busy manifest

Welcome to Edition 6.17 of the Rocket Report! Two Asian powers notched achievements in their human spaceflight programs this week. In China, three astronauts launched to begin a six-month expedition on the Tiangong space station. With this mission, China is settling into a routine of operations on the Tiangong complex. Elsewhere in Asia, India took strides toward launching its own astronauts with a successful test of a launch abort system for the country's Gaganyaan spacecraft, which could fly people into low-Earth orbit in 2025. This is welcome news for US officials because India could help offer a counterweight to China's dominance (among Asian countries) in spaceflight.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets, as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

India tests escape system for human-rated crew capsule. India aced the first in-flight test of the crew escape system for the country's Gaganyaan spacecraft Saturday, Ars reports. With this flight, India tested the set of rocket motors and parachutes that would propel the spacecraft away from a failing launch vehicle, a dramatic maneuver that would save the lives of everyone on board. An unpressurized version of the Gaganyaan capsule launched, without anyone aboard, on top of a single-stage liquid-fueled rocket. About a minute later, soon after the rocket surpassed the speed of sound, the vehicle triggered the abort maneuver, and the capsule separated from the booster to parachute into the sea. By all accounts, Indian officials were thrilled with the outcome of the test flight.

The first major milestone ... "We have started the journey of Gaganyaan with this maiden launch of the test vehicle abort sequence, and this will be repeated multiple times under different conditions," said Sreedhara Somanath, chairman of the Indian Space Research Organization. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the Gaganyaan program in 2018, and the Gaganyaan mission director hailed Saturday's test as "the first major milestone" of the $1.1 billion program. Indian officials plan more tests of the launch abort system next year, along with an unpiloted Gaganyaan mission into orbit. The target for flying astronauts into low-Earth orbit on the Gaganyaan spacecraft is 2025.

Avio wants to sell Vega rockets on its own. Avio, the Italian company that builds the solid-fueled Vega rocket, wants permission from the European Space Agency to split from the French launch provider Arianespace and market Vega launch services on its own, according to the French newspaper La Tribune and European Spaceflight. Arianespace is currently charged with selling Ariane 6 and Vega launch services on the global marketplace. Avio is now asking ESA, in a request backed by the Italian government, to separate from Arianespace in an apparent bid to build its launch business outside the confines of Europe's traditional launch arrangements.

Time for Vexit ... Avio's request to independently market its Vega rockets—a prospect La Tribune referred to as "Vexit"— will be a topic of discussion at an ESA Space Summit next week in Spain. During this meeting, representatives of ESA's member states will gather to decide on future funding levels and priorities for the space agency. European Spaceflight reported a final decision on Avio's proposal likely won't be taken until sometime after the space summit, but Avio has positioned itself to take a more independent role in the European launch market. Last year, the Italian government agreed to provide 340 million euros to Avio for the development of a new methane-fueled first-stage engine and a demonstrator for a new partially reusable rocket. Given the beleaguered state of Europe's traditional rocket programs, it's no surprise Avio wants to go its own way. (submitted by Ken the Bin, EllPeaTea, and Ildatch)

ABL is taking steps toward another launch. In a richly detailed update, the founder and CEO of ABL Space Systems wrote this week that the company will introduce an upgraded rocket design and a larger launch mount for its next test flight. This follows the failed test flight of ABL's small 1-ton class RS1 orbital launcher in January, which ended with the cutoff of its engines seconds after liftoff, causing the vehicle to crash back onto its launch pad in Alaska. An investigation revealed a fire in the aft end of the RS1 booster burned through wiring harnesses, causing the rocket to lose power and shut off its engines.

Version 2 ... Harry O'Hanley, ABL's chief executive, wrote that the company believes the rocket's mobile launch mount—designed to fit fully assembled inside a shipping container—was too small, placing the rocket too close to the ground when it ignited its engines. This caused the hot engine exhaust to recirculate under the rocket and led to a fire in the engine compartment as it took off. To address this problem, ABL designed and built a taller launch mount this year, which will ship to the launch site in three major pieces rather than as a single unit. The second test flight of the RS1 rocket will also debut a "Block 2" version, with additional thrust and propellant. ABL recently completed a "dock dress" test in California, where technicians integrated the rocket with its new launch mount for checkouts. Soon, O'Hanley wrote, the mount and rocket will be shipped to Kodiak Island, Alaska, for the launch campaign. (submitted by Ken the Bin and EllPeaTea)

Rocket Lab aims to return to flight this year. Rocket Lab is preparing to return its Electron rocket to flight before the end of the year as it completes an investigation into a launch failure in September, Space News reports. Rocket Lab said Wednesday it received authorization from the Federal Aviation Administration to resume launches under its existing launch license, but the investigation continues into the failure of Rocket Lab's Electron launch vehicle on September 19. The company added that it is finalizing a "meticulous review" of the root cause of the launch failure, which occurred just after stage separation and destroyed a Capella Space radar imaging satellite. The review should be complete in the "coming weeks," and Rocket Lab anticipates a return to flight before the end of the year with corrective measures in place.

Stiff competition ... Peter Beck, Rocket Lab's founder and CEO, also recently talked to the New Zealand Herald, where he described the competitive landscape in the spaceflight market in stark terms. “The best way I can describe it is like running through a maze at night and at every dead end, there’s literally a cliff to fall off. If you just run flat out and you fall off that cliff, then you’re dead,” the Rocket Lab founder said. Rocket Lab is developing a medium-lift rocket called Neutron to follow its light-class Electron launch vehicle. This is an expensive effort, one that shows up in the form of losses on Rocket Lab's financial statements, despite the company's overall success in launch services and spacecraft manufacturing. “My two competitors are the two richest people on the planet," Beck said, referring to Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. "It’s do or die. You have to build a profitable company to survive ... There’s no room for error.” (submitted by David Ai)

ArianeGroup outlines progress in reusable rocket efforts. The methane-fueled Prometheus engine, seen in Europe as a starting point for a future reusable rocket, has undergone regular test-firings at ArianeGroup's facility in Vernon, France, since its first hot-fire test in June, the company reported this week. Most recently, ArianeGroup accomplished a 30-second Prometheus firing, followed shortly by a reignition. The Prometheus engine will be the means of propulsion for a test rocket hopper vehicle called Themis, developed with European Space Agency funding to demonstrate suborbital vertical takeoff and vertical landing technologies. "The aim now is to test operation of the engine throughout its thrust envelope during the coming months," ArianeGroup said. "The engine’s ability to vary its thrust is essential for the Themis stage to be able to return to Earth."

OK, but when will it be ready to fly? ... The answer to this question: It depends. If you're talking about low-altitude hop tests, analogous to what SpaceX did with its Grasshopper testbed a decade ago, then the answer is next year. Maybe? Major parts of the first Themis vehicle have arrived at ArianeGroup's Vernon plant for integration, and landing legs have undergone their first deployment tests. The initial low-altitude hop tests will be based out of Kiruna, Sweden. Higher-altitude demonstrations will follow later at the Guiana Space Center in South America. Lessons from the Themis program will, theoretically, help inform designs for the replacement for Europe's Ariane 6 rocket, which is still awaiting its first flight. ArianeGroup plans to market the Prometheus engine for use on other commercial rockets. (submitted by EllPeaTea and Ken the Bin)

China has launched three astronauts. China launched a fresh three-man crew to the Tiangong space station Thursday morning to replace three other astronauts who are wrapping up a six-month stay in orbit, CBS News reports. Chinese commander Tang Hongbo, alongside crewmates Tang Shengjie and Jiang Xinlin, launched inside their Shenzhou 17 spacecraft atop a Long March 2F rocket from the Jiuquan space base in northwestern China. The spacecraft docked at the Tiangong space station about 6.5 hours later, where Tang's crew—all former Chinese military pilots—was greeted by three astronauts who have lived on the orbiting lab since late May.

Settling into a routine ... Shenzhou 17 is the sixth long-duration crew mission to the Tiangong space station since the core of the complex launched in April 2021. Since then, China has added two more modules to the Tiangong space station to expand its living volume and capacity for research experiments. Tiangong crews spend about a half-year in orbit, similar to six-month mission increments on the International Space Station. On this mission, the Chinese astronauts will perform at least one spacewalk to inspect and potentially repair damage to the station's solar arrays caused by space debris. The Tiangong station is designed to operate for at least 10 years and will be augmented next year with a free-flying space telescope that will periodically dock at the complex for servicing. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Next year, SpaceX aims to average one launch every 2.5 days. SpaceX has launched more than 75 times this year, continuing a flight cadence that should see the company come close to 100 missions by the end of December. SpaceX plans to kick its launch rate into a higher gear in 2024. This will be largely driven by launches of upgraded Starlink satellites that can connect directly with consumer cell phones, a service SpaceX calls "Starlink Direct to Cell," Ars reports. Next year's goal is 12 monthly launches for a total of 144 Falcon rocket flights. Like this year, most of those missions will be primarily devoted to launching Starlink broadband satellites. So far in 2023, more than 60 percent of SpaceX's launches have delivered the company's own Starlink satellites into orbit.

20 flights? Why not more? ... SpaceX's success in recovering and reusing Falcon 9 boosters and payload fairings has been vital to making this possible. SpaceX has exceeded the original goal of launching each Falcon 9 booster 10 times before a major overhaul, first to 15 flights, and then recently certifying boosters for up to 20 missions. Technicians can swap out parts like engines, fins, landing legs, and valves that malfunction in flight or show signs of wear. With so many launches planned next year, 20 flights is probably not a stopping point. "We might go a little higher," the SpaceX official said.

SpaceX adds to its busy launch schedule. The European Space Agency has signed an agreement with SpaceX for two launches using Falcon 9 rockets next year, each lofting a pair of Galileo navigation satellites for the European Commission, The Wall Street Journal reports. These satellites were originally supposed to launch on Russian Soyuz rockets from French Guiana, an overseas department of France, or on Europe's own Ariane 6 rocket. But the war in Ukraine left Europe without access to Russian rockets, and the Ariane 6 has been delayed repeatedly, leaving European space officials nowhere to turn besides SpaceX. The European Commission, the European Union's executive arm, must still sign off on the agreement because it would be the first time a European security payload has launched on a SpaceX rocket.

The only game in town ... For customers with big satellites seeking a ride to space soon, SpaceX is the only option. That's one of the reasons SpaceX plans as many as 144 launches next year. ESA launched the Euclid space telescope on a Falcon 9 rocket in July after it lost its ride on a Russian rocket. Next year, ESA plans to launch an asteroid probe and an Earth science satellite on SpaceX rockets. The Canadian company MDA also announced this week it will launch its next-generation CHORUS Earth-imaging constellation, a follow-up to Canada's long-running line of Radarsat satellites, on a Falcon 9 rocket in late 2025. (submitted by Ken the Bin and Tfargo04)

Ariane 6 fueled up again for nighttime dress rehearsal. Teams at the Guiana Space Center on Tuesday completed a full-scale wet rehearsal of the new Ariane 6 rocket that was filled and then drained of its fuel, the European Space Agency said. The test lasted over 30 hours, with three teams working in shifts of 10 hours each, serving as an opportunity to refine countdown procedures and test the team's response to simulated emergencies that might interrupt a countdown. ESA, the French space agency ArianeGroup, and Arianespace ran this test overnight to practice loading the rocket with super-cold liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen propellants when the outside temperature is lower at the launch base in French Guiana. "Without the tropical sunlight shining on the Ariane 6 tanks, the fuel inside behaves noticeably different, and we need to consider and accommodate for condensation and ice formation," said Tony dos Santos, ESA’s Ariane 6 ground systems operations manager.

Third time running ... This was the third time the Ariane 6 rocket had been loaded with propellant on its launch pad in French Guiana. In July, teams loaded the rocket with propellant for a planned engine hot-fire test but called off the engine ignition. Then, on September 5, another countdown and dress rehearsal culminated in a brief firing of the Ariane 6's main engine on the pad. Next will be another countdown rehearsal, tentatively targeted for November 23, that will see the Ariane 6's main engine light for nearly eight minutes, the same duration it will fire during a launch. After that test, ESA plans to finally announce a timetable for the Ariane 6's maiden flight, now expected sometime next year. (submitted by Ken the Bin and EllPeaTea)

Tory Bruno, ULA's CEO, talked a lot this week. First, United Launch Alliance's chief executive revealed Tuesday that the company has scheduled the first launch of its new Vulcan rocket for December 24, Ars reports. There are two more backup dates available in December; otherwise, the debut of Vulcan will have to wait until January because of the stringent orbital mechanics required for the Vulcan rocket to send its payload—a commercial lunar lander owned by Astrobotic—on a course toward the Moon. ULA stacked the first stage of the Vulcan rocket on its mobile launch platform Thursday at Cape Canaveral, Florida, and plans to ship a Centaur upper stage from its factory in Alabama to the Florida launch site next month. This upper stage has received modifications to address structural weaknesses discovered during a ground test earlier this year.

Buy me! ... Bruno also appeared to lend credibility to reports that ULA is up for sale. In an interview with Bloomberg News, Bruno said that anyone who purchased ULA would reap the rewards of the company's "transformation" over the last few years, a course change primarily driven by geopolitics and the competitive threat of SpaceX. “If I were buying a space business, I’d go look at ULA,” Bruno said. “It’s already had all the hard work done through the transformation. You’re not buying a Victorian with bad plumbing. It’s all been done. You’re coming in at the end of the remodel, so you can focus on your future."

SpaceX performs another Starship wet dress rehearsal. SpaceX is not wasting its time while waiting for regulatory approval for its next Starship test flight. At the Starship launch complex in Texas this week, SpaceX loaded the Starship rocket and Super Heavy booster with more than 10 million pounds of propellant in what it called "flight-like rehearsal ahead of launch." SpaceX officials have said the rocket has been ready to fly since September, but the company is waiting for a launch license from the Federal Aviation Administration.

November could be the month…  Signs are pointing toward November for the second full-scale Starship test flight. A notice to mariners published by the US Coast Guard this week suggested November 6 as a possible launch date, but you should take this with caution. This is likely the very earliest the test flight could occur. Similar notices previously pointed to potential launch dates in September, which didn't happen. Nevertheless, sources said SpaceX has a good shot of obtaining regulatory approval for a test flight next month. NASA plans to use a vehicle derived from Starship to land humans on the Moon on the agency's Artemis program, and a successful test flight this year would allow SpaceX to move forward with additional tests, such as in-space refueling, needed to make the Artemis landing possible. "I hope everybody in this room is cheering on IFT-2 (Integrated Flight Test-2) when it's time to go because we need that to be successful to get us that much further down the road," said Jim Free, the NASA manager who oversees the Artemis program.

Next three launches

October 28: Falcon 9 | Starlink 7-6 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, California | 06:49 UTC

October 28: Falcon 9 | Starlink 6-25 | Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida | 23:20 UTC

November 6: Falcon 9 | CRS-29 | Kennedy Space Center, Florida | 03:01 UTC

Oct. 27, 2023: The list of the next three launches was updated following the liftoff of a Soyuz rocket Friday.