Rocket Report: “Crisis” for European launch industry; Japan’s H3 rocket nears debut

"Why not send one person a year to space and raise that awareness?"

The Falcon 9 rocket first stage that launched the Transporter-6 mission returns to Earth on January 3, 2023.

Trevor Mahlmann

Welcome to Edition 5.22 of the Rocket Report, the first of the new year! I'm excited for what will happen in the world of launch in 2023, and expect that we will see the debut of a lot of big new rockets this year, including Japan's H3, SpaceX's Starship, and United Launch Alliance's Vulcan. And there will be many small rockets. We'll be here all year to follow it with you.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Vega rocket fails again. For the third time in its last eight flights, Europe's Vega rocket failed a launch attempt in late December. The Vega vehicle was lost 150 seconds into its latest mission from the Kourou spaceport in French Guiana, the BBC reports, as it was carrying two French-built, high-resolution Earth imaging spacecraft into low Earth orbit. The failure puts further pressure on the European satellite sector, which no longer has use of Russian rockets and will see the retirement of the heavy-lift Ariane-5 launcher later this year.

An unprecedented crisis ... The anomaly occurred in the rocket's second-stage, the Zefiro 40, and an immediate analysis pointed to a drop in pressure in the combustion chamber of the segment. This was just the second launch of the upgraded version of the Vega rocket, known as Vega-C, and European officials said a commission would look into the mishap. This means it will be another year with relatively few launches by Arianespace, which operates the Vega and Ariane launch vehicles. Just two Ariane 5 rockets remain before the vehicle's end, and the Ariane 6 vehicle will probably not debut until 2024. The Paris-based Space Intel Report characterized the situation as an "unprecedented crisis" for Europe's launch sector, and it is difficult to disagree. (submitted by Tfargo04 and Ken the Bin)

Virgin Orbit nears launch date. Space-tracker Marco Langbroek noted on Twitter that navigational warnings have been posted for the LauncherOne "Start Me Up" mission from Cornwall, England, for January 9, with a backup date on January 18. The flight is intended to carry its payload into a 555 km Sun-synchronous orbit. After the warnings were posted, Virgin Orbit said it was not ready to announce an official launch date yet for the mission.

Hey-ho, let's go! ... The much-anticipated launch—the first orbital launch to ever originate from British soil—was held up for months during 2022 due to regulatory issues. However, it looks like those concerns have been addressed, as the company has secured a launch license. Therefore, the final launch date is likely to be mostly affected by technical issues and weather off the southwestern coast of the United Kingdom. (submitted by Ken the Bin and EllPeaTea)

Lawmaker wants to buy a New Shepard seat. In one of the more bizarre pieces of legislation that I've seen, South Carolina State Rep. Neal Collins (R-Pickens) wants the state to purchase a seat on Blue Origin's New Shepard vehicle and give it away to a resident. "A few companies have made it to where it’s possible for normal people to go to space, and I want to raise awareness of that,” Collins told The State. “Why not send one person a year to space and raise that awareness?"

Taxpayer-funded private spaceflight? ... Under Collins’ plan, the state would convene a commission responsible for selecting space travelers. The seven-member commission, composed of representatives from the aerospace industry, academia, and government, would establish selection criteria and choose applicants best able to promote the program’s goal of encouraging careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. Collins said he wants to pay for the program out of South Carolina’s general fund budget. Props to whichever Blue Origin lobbyist works South Carolina. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Second SSLV launch possible in February. Following a failure of the debut launch of India's Small Satellite Launch Vehicle in August 2022, a second flight of the vehicle is now planned for February 2023, Mint reports. The domestically developed Small Satellite Launch Vehicle is designed to launch up to 500 kg of satellites in low Earth orbit. Indian Space Research Organization Chairman Sreedhara Somanath said this week that a specific date has not been set for the second attempt.

Unintentional suborbital launch ... Last August, the 34-meter-tall rocket made a smooth launch until the failure of its kick stage. As a result, the payloads on board were ejected into an elliptical orbit of 76 by 356 kilometers instead of the intended circular orbit of 356 kilometers. Indian officials are confident they have addressed the upper stage issue ahead of the rocket's second launch attempt.

Thailand mulls spaceport creation. Thailand's House Committee on Communications, Telecommunications and Digital Economy and Society will soon release a feasibility study on space launch services and infrastructure, as well as potential economic benefits, the Bangkok Post reports. The first step toward these economic gains is building a domestic spaceport, the study found.

Seeking to foster innovation ... Among the advantages of a "Spaceport Thailand" project would be the country's proximity to the equator, advocates believe. It is worth noting that such projects are always promoted as engines of economic activity, but they can also be financial drains. If a country like Thailand lacks a significant aerospace base, it is not clear whether there would be any near-term users of such a spaceport. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Ranking the top US launch companies. For the first time, at the end of 2022, Ars Technica ranked the top 10 US launch companies in terms of performance during the calendar year. This was a subjective list, although hard metrics such as total launches, tonnage to orbit, success rate, and more were all important factors in the decision. My goal is to continue to do this on an annual basis, and it should be fun to track changes as they evolve over time.

Performance vs potential ... The top three companies were easy to rank: SpaceX was the clear leader, and United Launch Alliance and Rocket Lab both had great years in 2022. But after that? The list is much more difficult to parse. The fact is, 99 percent of this country's launch capacity is controlled by just those three companies, and after that we are talking more about potential than performance. In next year's list we'll see who stepped up.

Ranking the European launch companies, too. After seeing the Ars Technica list, the European Spaceflight newsletter decided to rank European rocket companies. This list is even more speculative, as only the top two companies, ArianeGroup and Avio, have any kind of launch history. But there are lots of contenders. "There are more than a dozen launch startups in Europe alone hoping to hobble the giants and claim a piece of the market for themselves," the newsletter states.

Lots of work to do ... I was surprised to see Skyrora in the third spot, especially after the pretty dramatic failure of its suborbital Skylark L vehicle in October after just a 500-meter flight. However, in looking over the remainder of the list, it is clear that there just is not much real-world hardware or accomplishments upon which to base the rankings. Nevertheless, the list of companies provides a great overview of what each accomplished, and did not, in 2022.

2022 sets record for orbital launches. Led by a banner year for SpaceX, the world’s space launch companies racked up a record 186 flights in 2022, all but six of which reached orbit, Aviation Week reports. Launches from the US jumped to 78 for the year, driven by SpaceX, which successfully flew its Falcon rocket fleet 61 times.

Smashing the previous record set last year ... Second to the US in orbital launch activity last year was China, which staged 64 missions by a mix of government and commercial providers, a 15 percent increase over the 56 launches that China conducted in 2021. The worldwide orbital launch rate in 2022 topped the previous record, set in 2021, of 146 flights, 10 of which were unsuccessful.

H3 rocket gets a launch date. Japan's long-awaited replacement for the H2 rocket finally has a debut launch date. The Japanese space agency, JAXA, has announced that "Test Flight No. 1" for the H3 rocket will take place during a launch window running from February 13 through February 28 from the Tanegashima Space Center.

A more cost-conscious rocket? ... Developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, the H3 rocket is intended to be a more cost-competitive version of the H2 rocket, which performs medium-lift services for Japanese satellites and commercial payloads. The rocket has been delayed for several years due to engine issues, and it is not clear how commercially competitive it can be in the era of a reusable Falcon 9. Still, it will be great to see this large new rocket finally take flight. (submitted by EllPeaTea and Ken the Bin)

SpaceX doubled its launch cadence in 2022. On the penultimate day of 2022, SpaceX completed its final launch of the year, boosting an Israeli optical satellite into low Earth orbit, Ars reports. This was the company's seventh launch in December and capped a year in which the Falcon family of rockets launched 61 times, all successful. All but one of these missions flew on the Falcon 9 rocket, and more than 90 percent of these flights were on a previously used booster. The other launch took place on a Falcon Heavy. SpaceX tied a record set by the Soviet R-7 rocket, which in 1980 flew a combined 61 missions across its Soyuz, Molniya, and Vostok variants.

Bigger goals for the new year ... The Soviets accomplished this amid the Cold War, of course, with a large budget devoted to space surveillance and a massive government space program with tens of thousands of workers. SpaceX performed the same feat as a private company, flying its Starlink satellites and a mix of missions for satellite companies and governmental space agencies. SpaceX also landed every first stage that attempted to return on a drone ship or landing site in 2022, for a total of 60 rockets. For 2023, the company aspires to launch as many as 100 rockets. Related: Check out the on-board video of the first Falcon 9 launch of 2023.

NASA awards science mission to Falcon 9. In late December NASA announced its selection of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket to provide launch services for the Sentinel-6B mission, a partnership between NOAA, the European Space Agency, and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. Set for launch in November 2025, the fixed-price contract has a value of approximately $94 million, which includes launch services and other mission related costs.

There were no other bidders ... It should come as no surprise that NASA selected SpaceX for this contract. As Ars has previously reported, there are currently no other bidders for NASA's medium and large science missions beyond SpaceX and its fleet of Falcon rockets. Until United Launch Alliance's Vulcan rocket becomes eligible to bid on launch contracts, after its first successful launch, all of NASA's major science missions for the next few years, including the Europa Clipper and Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, among many other missions, will be flying on Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

The SLS senator has retired. After nearly four decades as a US senator from Alabama, Richard Shelby retired on Tuesday. Ars has a report on the sizable role Shelby played in setting space policy for NASA, and supporting the Space Launch System rocket, during his tenure in office. As chair of the powerful Appropriations Committee in the US Senate, Shelby's voice was that of God when it came to funding US defense and civil space contracts.

Washington is the new Alabama? ... Over the years, Shelby brought home the bacon to Alabama, delivering large contracts to NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, the Army's Redstone Arsenal, and large companies that agreed to do business in Alabama. The new chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee will be Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash). Murray's position and the experience held by Washington's other senator—Maria Cantwell, who chairs the Senate Commerce Committee—suggest that some of the political power on US space policy will shift from Alabama to the state of Washington. This may benefit the aerospace industry there, including Boeing and Blue Origin.

China expanding Wenchang spaceport. China plans to expand the use of its coastal Wenchang spaceport to both allow a greater overall launch rate and establish new facilities needed for crewed lunar missions, Space News reports. Since construction of the Wenchang Satellite Launch Center was completed in 2014, China has launched a new generation of kerolox and cryogenic rockets carrying interplanetary missions. The planned expansion will facilitate commercial launches, a new-generational crew launch vehicle, and the super heavy-lift Long March 9 rocket.

Putting the Moon into focus ... "In the near future, Wenchang will see its launch frequency go from between six to eight times a year, to 20 or 30 times a year," Zhong Wen’an, chief engineer of the Xichang Satellite Launch Center that oversees Wenchang Satellite Launch Center, told CCTV. The Long March 9 is planned for use in construction of China’s lunar base and other space infrastructure projects, including space-based solar power plants. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Next three launches

Jan. 8: Long March 7A | Shijian 23 | Wenchang Satellite Launch Center, China | 23:00 UTC

Jan. 9: Falcon 9 | OneWeb-16 | Cape Canveral, Fla. | 04:55 UTC

Jan. 9: Ceres-1 | Give Me Five | Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center | 05:15 UTC

Rocket Report: “Crisis” for European launch industry; Japan’s H3 rocket nears debut

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Rocket Report: “Crisis” for European launch industry; Japan’s H3 rocket nears debut

"Why not send one person a year to space and raise that awareness?"

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