The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) quietly revised its national crime data for 2022, showing that violent crime actually increased instead of the decrease initially reported, according to RealClearInvestigations (RCI).
The FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR) initially showed a slight 2.1% decrease in violent crime from 2021 to 2022, however the revision, which was only briefly mentioned on its website, shows an increase in violent crime of 4.5%, according to RCI. The revision comes after the release of the 2023 UCR data in September, which showed a 3% decrease in national violent crime, according to an FBI press release.
“I have checked the data on total violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” Carl Moody, professor at the College of William & Mary who specializes in crime, told RCI. “There were no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there were small changes of less than one percentage point. The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data.”
The change is only discoverable when downloading the new set of data now and comparing it to the old, with the FBI issuing no statement reflecting the change, RCI reported.
The post-release change is similar to the revisions the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does for its jobs numbers, which overestimated the amount of jobs in America in 2023 by an average of 105,000 a month.
Law enforcement officials put up police tape at the Perry Middle School and High School complex in response to a school shooting on January 04, 2024 in Perry, Iowa. Students were returning to classes today following the holiday break.
“The [FBI’s] processes, such as how it tries to ‘estimate’ unreported figures, has long been a black box, even to the Bureau of Justice Statistics – the Department of Justice’s actual statistical agency,” Jeffrey Anderson, who headed the Bureau of Justice Statistics from 2017 to 2021, told RCI. “We definitely would have highlighted in a press release or a report the 6.6% change recorded for 2022, which moved the numbers from a drop to a rise in violent crime.”
The BJS releases its own measure of crime called the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which reported a rise in violent crime victimizations in 2022, according to the report summary. The NCVS is a national survey that also accounts for unreported crimes, unlike the FBI UCR data, which relies on reported crimes to police departments around the nation.
“With the media using the 2022 FBI data to tell us for a year that crime was falling, it is disappointing that there are no news articles correcting that misimpression,” Moody told RCI. “We will have to see whether the FBI later also revises the 2023 numbers.”
The FBI did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
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