China’s demographic timebomb starts ticking down

China recorded first population decline in over six decades in 2022 despite recent allowances for families to have more than one child

China lost its title of the world’s largest population last year to India, marking the first decline in its population in 61 years.

China’s population decreased by 850,000, or 0.06%, to 1.412 billion at the end of last year from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. India’s population grew 9.6 million, or 0.68%, to 1.417 billion for the same period.

NBS officials said the bureau did not have the number of deaths for December as most samples that were used to compile the 2022 population figure were taken in November. Health officials said last Saturday about 60,000 Covid patients, mostly elderly, had died in hospitals after the country relaxed its epidemic rules early last month.

Demographers said that in view of the likelihood the decline in numbers and the rise in the average age of China’s population will continue for decades, the county must upgrade its industry to maintain economic growth.

When China started opening up its economy in the late 1970s, it also implemented a one-child policy to control its population by forbidding families to give birth to second children. A couple could have a second child only if the first child was a girl or died. Those who violated the rule either were levied heavy fines or faced forced abortion.

In 2011, China started allowing more people to have second children as the growth of the country’s population was slowing. In 2015, the one-child policy was officially scrapped. Between 1980 and 2015, China’s population had increased 41% from 981 million to 1.38 billion.

In 2021, the Chinese government unveiled a three-child policy to try to boost the birth rate as many young families tended to have fewer children amid high living costs. Last year the government offered incentives such as easier housing purchases and better educational services. It’s too early to say what effect those measures will have.

The NBS said Tuesday that 10.41 million people died and 9.56 million babies were born in mainland China last year, resulting in a net loss of 850,000 people. In 2021, about 10.14 million died and 10.62 million babies were born.

NBS Director Kang Yi said China’s population declined for the first time since 1961 as many young people were having late marriages and becoming less willing to have children while the population has also aged. Kang said the declining trend has just begun.

Women contribute some 41% to China’s GDP, the largest proportion of any country in the world. Get married and have kids? What for? Photo: Pixabay

The public should not be over-worried, Kang said, as long as the country’s workforce and demographic can match with the economic structure.

Population loss is a matter of been there, done that for China. The country lost 35 million people during the Great Chinese Famine between 1959 and 1961, according to former Xinhua reporter Yang Jisheng, who has researched the topic for more than a decade.

In the mid-1950s, China had about 20 million newborns annually. But in 1961, the number of newborns fell to 9.49 million due to a shortage of food. Since then, about 20 million to 29 million babies were born each year. After 2000, the number stayed at around 15 million to 17 million per year. But it has kept falling since 2016.

Song Jian, a professor at the Population Development Studies Center, the Renmin University, noted that the Chinese population declined in the past due to the rise in deaths. This time, she said, the drop was mainly caused by a low birth rate.

She said the number of births per woman, or fertility rate, had already fallen to 1.93 in 1992, below the threshold of 2.1 required for an expansion.

Since then, she said, China’s population kept growing due to momentum – but such a driving force had been exhausted after three decades.

She said governments should launch more policies to reduce the burdens of young families, so they will be more willing to give birth.

According to official data, the number of reproductive-aged women in China fell by 46 million from 380 million in 2010 to 334 million in 2020.

He Yafu, a Chinese demographer, said that between 2016 and last year, the population of reproductive-aged women in China dropped by about 5 million annually. He said young people prefer to get married later and have fewer children.

Besides, He said, the zero-Covid policy in mainland China negatively impacted people’s willingness to give birth. He said China’s population could continue to decline in the next few decades.

He said it was unlikely that China could turn the situation around in the short run, given that Japan and South Korea have so far failed to boost their birth rates despite many supportive policies.

Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management Ltd, said the declining Chinese population could mean a potential slowdown in domestic demand and economic growth in China. Zhang said China must boost its production efficiency as it can no longer rely on its population growth to drive economic growth.

Unleashed pent-up Chinese demand could drive the global economy in 2023. Image: Screengrab / NDTV

Meanwhile, some economists said India and Vietnam, with their growing populations, will diminish China’s current role as the global manufacturing hub.

An S&P report said India will surpass Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030. Last year, India ranked the fifth largest economy in the world, following the United States, China, Japan and Germany.

Vietnam’s population increased 0.74% to 98.19 million at the end of last year from 97.47 million a year earlier.

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