China’s Covid outbreak could kill a million: study

HK researchers put grim figure on projected fatalities while predicting local health systems won’t be able to cope with coming viral wave

Covid-related deaths could reach one million in the current epidemic wave as the hospital system struggles to keep pace with and treat runaway infections since the country eased its “zero-Covid” rules a week ago.

An estimated 684 people per million would die from Covid-19 as the Chinese government relaxes its epidemic rules without an accompanying mass vaccination booster campaign, according to a research report co-authored by Gabriel Leung, the former dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong.

The report was not released publicly but was obtained and reviewed by Bloomberg, which estimated about 964,400 people could die from the coronavirus in China.

“Our results suggest that local health systems across all provinces would be unable to cope with the surge of Covid-19 cases posed by reopening in December 2022–January 2023,” the researchers wrote, according to the report.

Meanwhile, the official number of reported Covid infections keeps declining as PCR tests are no longer compulsory. The Chinese government also stopped announcing the daily number of identified asymptomatic cases from Tuesday.

Chinese netizens are now using other measures, such as the number of keyword searches for “fever” on the internet and the number of people who seek help from clinics, to monitor the epidemic’s trajectory. Figures showed that Beijing and nearby cities including Baoding and Shijiazhuang now face large-scale virus outbreaks.

Since the Chinese government announced on December 7 a 10-point notice that Covid patients could choose to quarantine at home while cities should avoid lockdowns and reduce PCR tests, the number of people with fever in key cities has surged.

On Monday, Li Ang, a spokesperson of the Beijing Municipal Health Commission, said the number of people who sought medical treatment at fever clinics in the capital city was 22,000 on December 11, about 16 times higher than the level a week earlier.

Li said about 19,000 people were found to have seasonal flu symptoms in the week ended December 11, about six times higher than the level recorded the previous week.

He said more than 30,000 people now called the emergency hotline “120” each day, which is also about six times higher than the normal level. He said these figures showed that the quick and wide spread of the coronavirus would likely continue in Beijing.

The National Health Commission announced that a total of 6,197 new Covid cases were recorded on Monday, down from 8,838 on Sunday. On Tuesday, the number dropped to 2,291 as all asymptomatic cases were excluded.

Covid patients try to get admitted to a hospital in Beijing. Photo: Screenshot, Weibo

The Commission said it could not get the accurate number of all asymptomatic cases as PCR tests were no longer compulsory.

Hu Xijin, former editor in chief of the Communist Party mouthpiece the Global Times, said last week that the declining number of officially announced positive cases did not reflect the true epidemic situation in China.

Jiang Debin, a Guangdong-based columnist, said the government’s decision to exclude asymptomatic cases was reasonable as it could help ease public panic about the disease’s fast spread. He said many people had been hoarding medicine and queuing up at hospitals and clinics over the past week but actually most of them could just stay home.

During the pandemic, many countries launched mobile apps for those who tested positive at home to voluntarily report their cases, helping infectious disease experts monitor the Rt value, an effective reproduction number of the virus. An Rt of less than 1.0 means the infection is not spreading.

A new study by researchers at the University of Hong Kong, who traveled to Beijing in November, estimated that 684 people per million would die in China’s reopening as many people have not received a booster shot. The researchers said if China had delayed the reopening to January 2023 and boosted its vaccination rates, the number of deaths could fall by 26%.

The team also suggested that the fast growth of infections in China could lead to mutations of the virus.

In Beijing, funeral and cremation service providers said they were now serving a lot more customers this week. Video footage showed cars queuing up in front of the Babao Mountain Funeral House. But the National Health Commission did not report any Covid death cases.

A nurse in China prepares to administer the Sinovac vaccine. Photo: AFP / George Calvelo / NurPhoto

A writer called City Data Group wrote in an article that Beijing, Baoding and Shijiazhuang were now facing serious virus outbreaks as the online search for the keyword “fever” had increased to a high level. The writer said a “fever index” could be used to monitor the virus transmission.
 
He said the index rose to 1.57 in Shanghai in April and 2.6 in Urumqi in October due to virus outbreaks, up from the normal level of 1. He said the index had now reached 3.98 in Beijing, 4.98 in Baoding and 4 in Shijiazhuang. He also estimated that at least 1.7 million people would die in the current epidemic wave. 

On Wednesday, the China National Pharmaceutical Group Corp said it had signed an agreement with Pfizer to import the American firm’s oral Covid treatment pill Paxlovid. The medicine is now priced at 2,980 yuan (US$426.80) per box on the Internet. 

Source