72% of CFOs believe the economy will improve in 2025

In an about-face shift of sentiment, finance chiefs are suddenly optimistic about the near future.

How are CFOs feeling heading into 2025? The latest look at the topic, a Deloitte poll taken days after Donald Trump’s presidential election victory, suggests that most are now brimming with confidence.

Among 200 large-company finance chiefs participating in Deloitte’s fourth quarter CFO Signals survey, 72% said the North American economy will have improved by late 2025.

Two-thirds (67%) of those polled, all at companies with annual revenue of at least $1 billion, said now is a time to take greater risks, and 55% indicated greater interest in M&A transactions in the coming year.

Deloitte noted the sentiment is “a major reversal from the cautious mood seen in recent quarters.” In its third-quarter survey, a mere 19% were optimistic about the economic picture 12 months out.

The Q4 CFO confidence score, which measures sentiment across five categories relating to future economic and business conditions, climbed to 5.8, the highest reading in 10 quarters. (The typical range of the metric, based on tracking over the past 20 quarters, is between 4 and 7, according to Deloitte.)

As to whether the November election result influenced survey participants, “It’s possible that finance chiefs are relieved that the U.S. election is settled, which may provide a degree of certainty about what’s ahead,” Deloitte wrote in its survey report. “Moreover, with the Republican party now holding a majority in Congress, expiring tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) might be amended or made permanent.”

Included in those is the law’s bonus depreciation provision, which allows organizations to write off a percentage of an investment cost in the first year of purchase. The allowable deduction — currently 60% — is slated to decrease over the next two years, eventually sunsetting in 2027.

The sunset has worried many CFOs. In Deloitte’s third-quarter 2024 Signals survey, 50% of participants cited the provision as a key concern.

Other TCJA provisions with scheduled sunsets include those related to the deduction for qualified business income; carried interest; expensing of R&D expenditures; the corporate tax rate; and interest deductibility, among others.

Also suggesting that Trump’s election may have affected CFOs’ outlook is that participants in the Q4 survey were much less optimistic about economic health in regions outside North America.

Whereas 50% of the CFOs characterized North America’s economy as “good” presently, no other region registered higher than 35% for China. And while 72% of the survey-takers judged that the continent’s economy will be better in a year, the next-greatest optimism was registered for Asia excluding China, at 37%.

Still, Deloitte noted, import tariffs that the Trump Administration might impose on international trading partners “could put a dent in [CFOs’] lofty expectations” for North America.

Other selected survey results:

Respondents said that on average they’re expecting 10.8% revenue growth over the next 12 months.

Employee compensation looks set for a big jump. On average, surveyed finance chiefs said they expected their organization to see a 7.3% increase in domestic wages and salaries over the next 12 months.

CFOs remain skeptical about stock valuations, with 58% considering U.S. equity markets overvalued and 30% viewing them as undervalued.

The top external concern for CFOs was the economy, cited as a concern by 55% of respondents. Next came geopolitics, interest rates, cybersecurity, regulations, inflation and taxes.

A push to rein in finance-department spending can be seen in the finance transformations that surveyed CFOs said they intend to focus on in 2025. The most-cited such transformation priority (21%) among a list of options was a focus on developing self-service for business users requesting financial information.

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