People are often quite selective about the information they'll accept, seeking out sources that will confirm their biases, while discounting those that will challenge their beliefs. In theory, search engines can potentially change that. By prioritizing results from high-quality, credible sources, a search engine could ensure that people found accurate information more frequently, potentially opening them to the possibility of updating their beliefs.

Obviously, that hasn't worked out on the technology side, as people quickly learned how to game the algorithms used by search engines, meaning that the webpages that get returned have been created by people with no interest in quality or credibility. But a new study is suggesting that the concept fails on the human side, too, as people tend to devise search terms that are specific enough to ensure that the results of the search will end up reinforcing their existing beliefs.

The study showed that invisibly swapping search terms to something more general can go a long way toward enabling people to change their mind.

Searching for affirmation

The new work was done by two researchers, Eugina Leung at Tulane University and Oleg Urminsky at the University of Chicago. Much of their study focuses on a simple question that people might turn to a search engine to answer: Is caffeine good or bad for you? If you wanted to search for that, you could potentially ask "what are the health effects of caffeine?" which should get you a mixture of the pros and cons. But people could also ask it in less neutral terms, such as, "Is caffeine bad for you?" These more specific searches are likely to pull up a more biased selection of results than the general, neutral terms.

Leung and Urminsky did some tests that suggested this was likely to be a real-world problem. Using a Google Adwords planner, they pulled out some of the most common searches that included the word "caffeine" and found that over a quarter of them were narrowly focused and not likely to return a representative spectrum of information on the molecule's effects.

Google data also suggests that people do tend to craft search terms that reflect their cognitive biases. "Google Trends data show that the higher the Republican vote share in a state," Leung and Urminsky write, "the more likely Google users in that state were to search 'Trump win' or 'Trump won' compared to searching 'Biden win' or 'Biden won.'"

With that in mind, they designed a large series of experiments that looked into how these biases play out within controlled experiments. We won't go into all the details, but the general format of the work was to ask the participants their thoughts on an issue, such as whether caffeine was good or bad for you. The participants were then told to go search for more information, after which their opinions on the topic were checked again.

The results, while not always dramatic, consistently pointed in the same direction: If a participant crafted narrow search terms, they were more likely to structure them in a way that should return information that confirms their biases. Or, as the researchers put it, "Experimental participants tended to devise questions that, if answered correctly, would corroborate rather than invalidate their hypothesis." And, not surprisingly, they were more likely to hang onto their original opinion after having been given the chance to look over the results of that search, whether it was provided by Google or GPT 3.5.

The topic really didn't matter that much. Leung and Urminsky tested a list that included things like the societal impact of bitcoin to whether gas prices are likely to go up in the future. All of them displayed the same pattern. Again, it was never absolute—narrow searches tended to be 10 to 25 percent more common than general ones. There was simply a tendency to focus searches in a way that would likely reinforce existing beliefs. But that tendency was remarkably consistent.

So, the researchers decided to see if they could upend it.

Keeping it general

The simplest way to change the dynamics of this was simply to change the results returned by the search. So, the researchers did a number of experiments where they gave all of the participants the same results, regardless of the search terms they had used. When everybody gets the same results, their opinions after reading them tend to move in the same direction, suggesting that search results can help change people's opinions.

The researchers also tried giving everyone the results of a broad, neutral search, regardless of the terms they'd entered. This weakened the probability that beliefs would last through the process of formulating and executing a search. In other words, avoiding the sorts of focused, biased search terms allowed some participants to see information that could change their minds.

Despite all the swapping, participants continued to rate the search results relevant. So, providing more general search results even when people were looking for more focused information doesn't seem to harm people's perception of the service. In fact, Leung and Urminsky found that the AI version of Bing search would reformulate narrow questions into more general ones.

That said, making this sort of change wouldn't be without risks. There are a lot of subject areas where a search shouldn't return a broad range of information—where grabbing a range of ideas would expose people to fringe and false information.

Nevertheless, it can't hurt to be aware of how we can use search services to reinforce our biases. So, in the words of Leung and Urminsky, "When search engines provide directionally narrow search results in response to users’ directionally narrow search terms, the results will reflect the users’ existing beliefs, instead of promoting belief updating by providing a broad spectrum of related information."

PNAS, 2025. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2408175122  (About DOIs).

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The H5N1 bird flu has spilled over to a sheep for the first time, infecting a domesticated ruminant in the United Kingdom much like it has in US dairy cows, according to UK officials.

The single sheep—a ewe—in Yorkshire, England, was confirmed infected after captive birds on the same property had tested positive for the virus, according to an announcement Monday. The ewe's milk was found to be positive for the virus through a PCR test, which detected genetic signatures of the virus. The ewe also had H5 antibodies in its blood. At the time of the confirmation, the ewe had symptoms of the infection in the way of mastitis, inflammation of the mammary glands.

This mirrors what US dairy farmers have been seeing in cows. An outbreak of H5N1 in dairy cows erupted a year ago, on March 25, 2024. Since then, at least 989 herds across 17 states have been infected with bird flu. In previous reports, farmers and researchers have noted that the virus appears to attack the animal's mammary glands and their milk is teeming with the virus.

In the US, at least 70 people have been infected with the virus, 41 of whom were dairy workers. In some cases, workers reported having milk splashed on their faces before developing an infection. While nearly all of the cases have been relatively mild so far—some only with eye inflammation (conjunctivitis)—one person in the US has died from the infection after being exposed via wild or backyard birds.

In the UK, officials said further testing of the rest of the sheep's flock has found no other infections. The one infected ewe has been humanely culled to mitigate further risk and to "enable extensive testing."

"Strict biosecurity measures have been implemented to prevent the further spread of disease," UK Chief Veterinary Officer Christine Middlemiss said in a statement. "While the risk to livestock remains low, I urge all animal owners to ensure scrupulous cleanliness is in place and to report any signs of infection to the Animal Plant Health Agency immediately."

While UK officials believe that the spillover has been contained and there's no onward transmission among sheep, the latest spillover to a new mammalian species is a reminder of the virus's looming threat.

"Globally, we continue to see that mammals can be infected with avian influenza A(H5N1)," Meera Chand, Emerging Infection Lead at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), said in a statement. In the US, the Department of Agriculture has documented hundreds of infections in wild and captive mammals, from cats to bears, raccoons, and harbor seals.

Chand noted that, so far, the spillovers into animals have not easily transmitted to humans. For instance, in the US, despite extensive spread through the dairy industry, no human-to-human transmission has yet been documented. But, experts fear that with more spillovers and exposure to humans, the virus will gain more opportunities to adapt to be more infectious in humans.

Chand says that UKHSA and other agencies are monitoring the situation closely in the event the situation takes a turn. "UKHSA has established preparations in place for detections of human cases of avian flu and will respond rapidly with NHS and other partners if needed."

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Late Saturday night, technicians at Kennedy Space Center in Florida moved the core stage for NASA's second Space Launch System rocket into position between the vehicle's two solid-fueled boosters.

Working inside the iconic 52-story-tall Vehicle Assembly Building, ground teams used heavy-duty cranes to first lift the butterscotch orange core stage from its cradle in the VAB's cavernous transfer aisle, the central passageway between the building's four rocket assembly bays. The cranes then rotated the structure vertically, allowing workers to disconnect one of the cranes from the bottom of the rocket.

That left the rocket hanging on a 325-ton overhead crane, which would lift it over the transom into the building's northeast high bay. The Boeing-built core stage weighs about 94 tons (85 metric tons), measures about 212 feet (65 meters) tall, and will contain 730,000 gallons of cryogenic propellant at liftoff. It is the single largest element for NASA's Artemis II mission, slated to ferry a crew of astronauts around the far side of the Moon as soon as next year.

Finally, ground crews lowered the rocket between the Space Launch System's twin solid rocket boosters already stacked on a mobile launch platform inside High Bay 3, where NASA assembled Space Shuttles and Saturn V rockets for Apollo lunar missions.

On Sunday, teams inside the VAB connected the core stage to each booster at forward and aft load-bearing attach points. After completing electrical and data connections, engineers will stack a cone-shaped adapter on top of the core stage, followed by the rocket's upper stage, another adapter ring, and finally the Orion spacecraft that will be home to the four-person Artemis II crew for their 10-day journey through deep space.

Through the motions

This will be the first crewed flight of NASA's Artemis program, which aims to land astronauts on the lunar south pole and eventually build a sustainable human presence on the Moon, with an eye toward future expeditions to Mars. The program's first crewed lunar landing is penciled in for the Artemis III mission, again using SLS and Orion, but adding a new piece: SpaceX's enormous Starship rocket will be used as a human-rated lunar lander. Artemis II won't land, but it will carry people to the vicinity of the Moon for the first time since 1972.

The core stage for Artemis II arrived from its factory in Louisiana last year, and NASA started stacking the SLS solid rocket boosters in November. Other recent accomplishments on the path toward Artemis II include the installation of the Orion spacecraft's solar panels, and closeouts of the craft's service module at Kennedy Space Center with aerodynamic panels that will jettison during launch.

As soon as next month, the Orion spacecraft will travel to a different facility at Kennedy for fueling, then to another building to meet its Launch Abort System before moving to the VAB for stacking atop the Space Launch System. Ahead of the uncrewed Artemis I mission in 2022, it took around eight months to complete these activities before delivering Orion to the VAB, so it's fair to be skeptical of NASA's target launch date for Artemis II in April 2026, which is already running years behind schedule.

However, the slow march toward launch continues. A few months ago, some well-informed people in the space community thought there was a real possibility the Trump administration could quickly cancel NASA's Space Launch System, the high-priced heavy-lifter designed to send astronauts from the Earth to the Moon. The most immediate possibility involved terminating the SLS program before it flies with Artemis II.

This possibility appears to have been overcome by circumstances. The rockets most often mentioned as stand-ins for the Space Launch System—SpaceX's Starship and Blue Origin's New Glenn—aren't likely to be cleared for crew missions for at least several years.

The fully reusable Starship holds immense long-term promise to be significantly cheaper and more capable than the Space Launch System, but it suffered back-to-back failures to start the year, raising questions about SpaceX's upgraded Starship design, known as "Version 2" or "Block 2." Once SpaceX irons out the design issues, it must prove it can recover and reuse Starships and test the vehicle's in-orbit refueling capabilities. Blue Origin's New Glenn had a successful debut flight in January, but its next flight is likely six or more months away.

NASA's existing architecture still has a limited shelf life, and the agency will probably have multiple options for transporting astronauts to and from the Moon in the 2030s. A decision on the long-term future of SLS and Orion isn't expected until the Trump administration's nominee for NASA administrator, Jared Isaacman, takes office after confirmation by the Senate.

So, what is the plan for SLS?

There are different degrees of cancellation options. The most draconian would be an immediate order to stop work on Artemis II preparations. This is looking less likely than it did a few months ago and would come with its own costs. It would cost untold millions of dollars to disassemble and dispose of parts of Artemis II's SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft. Canceling multibillion-dollar contracts with Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin would put NASA on the hook for significant termination costs.

Of course, these liabilities would be less than the $4.1 billion NASA's inspector general estimates each of the first four Artemis missions will cost. Most of that money has already been spent for Artemis II, but if NASA spends several billion dollars on each Artemis mission, there won't be much money left over to do other cool things.

Other options for NASA might be to set a transition point when the Artemis program would move off of the Space Launch System rocket, and perhaps even the Orion spacecraft, and switch to new vehicles.

Another possibility, which seems to be low-hanging fruit for Artemis decision-makers, could be to cancel the development of a larger Exploration Upper Stage for the SLS rocket. If there are a finite number of SLS flights on NASA's schedule, it's difficult to justify the projected $5.7 billion cost of developing the upgraded Block 1B version of the Space Launch System. There are commercial options available to replace the rocket's Boeing-built Exploration Upper Stage, as my colleague Eric Berger aptly described in a feature story last year.

For now, it looks like NASA's orange behemoth has a little life left in it. All the hardware for the Artemis II mission has arrived at the launch site in Florida.

The Trump administration will release its fiscal year 2026 budget request in the coming weeks. Maybe, then, NASA will also have a permanent administrator, and the veil will lift over the White House's plans for Artemis.

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Not every large object in space forms part of a solar system. There are some big objects that exist in isolation in space, without either being a star or orbiting one. One of these, SIMP 0136, wanders aimlessly in the Milky Way, about 20 light years away from Earth. It has a mass about 13 times that of Jupiter, and is thought to have the structure and chemical composition of a giant gas planet, though its true characteristics have not yet been determined.

Such untethered objects are typically classified either as “free-floating planets,” which form inside a star system, but are thrown out by the gravitational force of another planet, or as “brown dwarfs,” which form like stars in dense molecular clouds of gas and dust, but lack the mass to undergo stable nuclear fusion like a typical star (for this reason, brown dwarfs are sometimes also known as “failed stars”). It is unclear yet whether SIMP 0136 belongs to either of these categories.

To try to find out more about SIMP 0136’s characteristics, a team made up of researchers from Boston University and other institutions recently conducted detailed observations of the mysterious free-floating SIMP 0136 using the James Webb Space Telescope.

SIMP 0136 was an ideal target for research, for several reasons. Although difficult to observe using visible light, it shines brightly in infrared—in fact, SIMP 0136 is the brightest free-floating planetary-mass object in the northern sky. And because it is free-moving, observations of it aren’t affected by the light of nearby stars. On top of this, its rotation time is very short, about 2 hours and 40 minutes. This allows for efficient global observation of the planet.

The James Webb Space Telescope was selected for this work because of its excellent infrared observation capabilities. The team used two instruments that focus on different infrared wavelengths to look at the planet: the telescope’s Near Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) and its Mid Infrared Observatory (MIRI). The team used NIRSpec to observe the object for over three hours, enough to cover the entire planet's rotational period. Then, MIRI was used to observe for another rotation.

Previous observations had shown that SIMP 0136’s brightness varies, but the reason for this was unclear. So, the team analyzed new data gathered from the James Webb Space Telescope using an atmospheric model, and found that some wavelengths of infrared light recorded (shown in red in the diagram below) came from a cloud of evaporated iron molecules in the deepest layer of the planet’s atmosphere, while some other infrared wavelengths (shown in yellow below) came from a cloud of silicate mineral particles in the the planet’s upper atmosphere.

The unevenness of the state of each cloud layer is thought to be the reason why the brightness of SIMP 0136 changes as it rotates. It’s easy to understand if you think of Jupiter, which as a gas giant planet likely has a similar structure and chemical composition.

Or for another way to picture this, try imagining the surface of the Earth, says Philip Muirhead of Boston University, a coauthor of a new paper outlining these findings about SIMP 0136. “As the Earth rotates, when the ocean comes into view, you will observe stronger blue colors, and when you observe stronger brown or green colors, it means that continents, forest areas, et cetera come into view,” he explains.

In addition, the infrared light shown by the blue lines in the figure above comes from a high layer of SIMP 0136’s atmosphere, far above its cloud layers.

It is thought that the brightness of SIMP 0136, caused by these differences in infrared radiation, changes as it rotates because the temperature, like the cloud composition, varies from place to place on the planet. In addition, the researchers noticed hot spots where the planet’s infrared light was particularly bright. They believe that these may be caused by auroras, the existence of which has already been confirmed by radio wave observations.

However, it is difficult to explain all the changes in infrared brightness just by cloud and temperature variations. For this reason, the research team points out that there may be areas in SIMP 0136’s atmosphere where carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide are concentrated, and that these areas may also affect the infrared brightness as the planet rotates.

This story originally appeared on WIRED Japan and has been translated from Japanese.

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On Sunday, the genetic testing and heritage company 23andMe announced that it had entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy and was asking a court to arrange its sale. The company has been losing money for years, and a conflict between its board and CEO about future directions led to the entire board resigning back in September. Said CEO, Anne Wojcicki, has now resigned and will be pursuing an attempt to purchase the company and take it private.

At stake is the fate of genetic data from the company's 15 million customers. The company has secured enough funding to continue operations while a buyer is found, and even though US law limits how genetic data can be used, the pending sale has raised significant privacy concerns.

Risky business

The company launched around the time that "gene chips" first allowed people to broadly scan the human genome for sites where variations were common. A few of these variants are associated with diseases, and 23andMe received approval to test for a number of these. But its big selling point for many people was the opportunity to explore their heritage. This relied on looking broadly at the patterns of variation and comparing those to the patterns typically found in different geographic regions. It's an imperfect analysis, but it can often provide a decent big-picture resolution of a person's ancestry.

23andMe faced a number of challenges, though. For starters, the gene chips quickly became commodities, allowing a large range of competitors to enter the field, some of which had stronger backgrounds in things like linking genealogies to public records. This commodification also meant that many potential 23andMe partners in the pharmaceutical industry, who might be interested in gene/disease linkages, could affordably build their own databases or simply rely on some of the public resources that have since been developed, like the UK's Biobank.

For many direct customers, the test was a "one and done" experience—once they learned their heritage, there wasn't a strong enough draw for them to pay for any of 23andMe's other services. The company has recently focused on trying to get people to develop diet and fitness plans based on their genetic data, but that hasn't been enough to make the company profitable.

Where will the data go?

Former CEO Wojcicki, one of the company's founders, is convinced there is still a viable business there and has been interested in taking the company private for some time. Its sale may provide her the opportunity to do so, provided she can line up the finances for it.

Given the business challenges it's not clear what other buyer might be interested in 23andMe as a company, raising the prospect that Wojcicki will be outbid by someone who is interested in the company's primary asset: the genetic data of 15 million people around the globe. Within the US, the use of this information is limited by the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act, which prevents its use in health insurance decisions and employment. But plenty of other uses may potentially be legal, and customers from overseas may have far fewer protections.

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At the beginning of November 2024, the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) rejected Amazon’s request to buy an additional 180 megawatts of power directly from the Susquehanna nuclear power plant for a data center located nearby. The rejection was due to the argument that buying power directly instead of getting it through the grid like everyone else works against the interests of other users.

Demand for power in the US has been flat for nearly 20 years. “But now we’re seeing load forecasts shooting up. Depending on [what] numbers you want to accept, they’re either skyrocketing or they’re just rapidly increasing,” said Mark Christie, a FERC commissioner.

Part of the surge in demand comes from data centers, and their increasing thirst for power comes in part from running increasingly sophisticated AI models. As with all world-shaping developments, what set this trend into motion was vision—quite literally.

The AlexNet moment

Back in 2012, Alex Krizhevsky, Ilya Sutskever, and Geoffrey E. Hinton, AI researchers at the University of Toronto, were busy working on a convolution neural network (CNN) for the ImageNet LSRVC, an image-recognition contest. The contest’s rules were fairly simple: A team had to build an AI system that could categorize images sourced from a database comprising over a million labeled pictures.

The task was extremely challenging at the time, so the team figured they needed a really big neural net—way bigger than anything other research teams had attempted. AlexNet, named after the lead researcher, had multiple layers, with over 60 million parameters and 650 thousand neurons. The problem with a behemoth like that was how to train it.

What the team had in their lab were a few Nvidia GTX 580s, each with 3GB of memory. As the researchers wrote in their paper, AlexNet was simply too big to fit on any single GPU they had. So they figured out how to split AlexNet’s training phase between two GPUs working in parallel—half of the neurons ran on one GPU, and the other half ran on the other GPU.

AlexNet won the 2012 competition by a landslide, but the team accomplished something way more profound. The size of AI models was once and for all decoupled from what was possible to do on a single CPU or GPU. The genie was out of the bottle.

(The AlexNet source code was recently made available through the Computer History Museum.)

The balancing act

After AlexNet, using multiple GPUs to train AI became a no-brainer. Increasingly powerful AIs used tens of GPUs, then hundreds, thousands, and more. But it took some time before this trend started making its presence felt on the grid. According to an Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) report, the power consumption of data centers was relatively flat between 2010 and 2020. That doesn’t mean the demand for data center services was flat, but the improvements in data centers’ energy efficiency were sufficient to offset the fact we were using them more.

Two key drivers of that efficiency were the increasing adoption of GPU-based computing and improvements in the energy efficiency of those GPUs. “That was really core to why Nvidia was born. We paired CPUs with accelerators to drive the efficiency onward,” said Dion Harris, head of Data Center Product Marketing at Nvidia. In the 2010–2020 period, Nvidia data center chips became roughly 15 times more efficient, which was enough to keep data center power consumption steady.

All that changed with the rise of enormous large language transformer models, starting with ChatGPT in 2022. “There was a very big jump when transformers became mainstream,” said Mosharaf Chowdhury, a professor at the University of Michigan. (Chowdhury is also at the ML Energy Initiative, a research group focusing on making AI more energy-efficient.)

Nvidia has kept up its efficiency improvements, with a ten-fold boost between 2020 and today. The company also kept improving chips that were already deployed. “A lot of where this efficiency comes from was software optimization. Only last year, we improved the overall performance of Hopper by about 5x,” Harris said. Despite these efficiency gains, based on Lawrence Berkely National Laboratory estimates, the US saw data center power consumption shoot up from around 76 TWh in 2018 to 176 TWh in 2023.

The AI lifecycle

LLMs work with tens of billions of neurons approaching a number rivaling—and perhaps even surpassing—those in the human brain. The GPT 4 is estimated to work with around 100 billion neurons distributed over 100 layers and over 100 trillion parameters that define the strength of connections among the neurons. These parameters are set during training, when the AI is fed huge amounts of data and learns by adjusting these values. That’s followed by the inference phase, where it gets busy processing queries coming in every day.

The training phase is a gargantuan computational effort—Open AI supposedly used over 25,000 Nvidia Ampere 100 GPUs running on all cylinders for 100 days. The estimated power consumption is 50 GW-hours, which is enough to power a medium-sized town for a year. According to numbers released by Google, training accounts for 40 percent of the total AI model power consumption over its lifecycle. The remaining 60 percent is inference, where power consumption figures are less spectacular but add up over time.

Trimming AI models down

The increasing power consumption has pushed the computer science community to think about how to keep memory and computing requirements down without sacrificing performance too much. “One way to go about it is reducing the amount of computation,” said Jae-Won Chung, a researcher at the University of Michigan and a member of the ML Energy Initiative.

One of the first things researchers tried was a technique called pruning, which aimed to reduce the number of parameters. Yann LeCun, now the chief AI scientist at Meta, proposed this approach back in 1989, terming it (somewhat menacingly) “the optimal brain damage.” You take a trained model and remove some of its parameters, usually targeting the ones with a value of zero, which add nothing to the overall performance. “You take a large model and distill it into a smaller model trying to preserve the quality,” Chung explained.

You can also make those remaining parameters leaner with a trick called quantization. Parameters in neural nets are usually represented as a single-precision floating point number, occupying 32 bits of computer memory. “But you can change the format of parameters to a smaller one that reduces the amount of needed memory and makes the computation faster,” Chung said.

Shrinking an individual parameter has a minor effect, but when there are billions of them, it adds up. It’s also possible to do quantization-aware training, which performs quantization at the training stage. According to Nvidia, which implemented quantization training in its AI model optimization toolkit, this should cut the memory requirements by 29 to 51 percent.

Pruning and quantization belong to a category of optimization techniques that rely on tweaking the way AI models work internally—how many parameters they use and how memory-intensive their storage is. These techniques are like tuning an engine in a car to make it go faster and use less fuel. But there's another category of techniques that focus on the processes computers use to run those AI models instead of the models themselves—akin to speeding a car up by timing the traffic lights better.

Finishing first

Apart from optimizing the AI models themselves, we could also optimize the way data centers run them. Splitting the training phase workload evenly among 25 thousand GPUs introduces inefficiencies. “When you split the model into 100,000 GPUs, you end up slicing and dicing it in multiple dimensions, and it is very difficult to make every piece exactly the same size,” Chung said.

GPUs that have been given significantly larger workloads have increased power consumption that is not necessarily balanced out by those with smaller loads. Chung figured that if GPUs with smaller workloads ran slower, consuming much less power, they would finish roughly at the same time as GPUs processing larger workloads operating at full speed. The trick was to pace each GPU in such a way that the whole cluster would finish at the same time.

To make that happen, Chung built a software tool called Perseus that identified the scope of the workloads assigned to each GPU in a cluster. Perseus takes the estimated time needed to complete the largest workload on a GPU running at full. It then estimates how much computation must be done on each of the remaining GPUs and determines what speed to run them so they finish at the same. “Perseus precisely slows some of the GPUs down, and slowing down means less energy. But the end-to-end speed is the same,” Chung said.

The team tested Perseus by training the publicly available GPT-3, as well as other large language models and a computer vision AI. The results were promising. “Perseus could cut up to 30 percent of energy for the whole thing,” Chung said. He said the team is talking about deploying Perseus at Meta, “but it takes a long time to deploy something at a large company.”

Are all those optimizations to the models and the way data centers run them enough to keep us in the green? It takes roughly a year or two to plan and build a data center, but it can take longer than that to build a power plant. So are we winning this race or losing? It’s a bit hard to say.

Back of the envelope

As the increasing power consumption of data centers became apparent, research groups tried to quantify the problem. A Lawerence Berkley Laboratory team estimated that data centers’ annual energy draw in 2028 would be between 325 and 580 TWh in the US—that’s between 6.7 and 12 percent of the total US electricity consumption. The International Energy Agency thinks it will be around 6 percent by 2026. Goldman Sachs Research says 8 percent by 2030, while EPRI claims between 4.6 and 9.1 percent by 2030.

EPRI also warns that the impact will be even worse because data centers tend to be concentrated at locations investors think are advantageous, like Virginia, which already sends 25 percent of its electricity to data centers. In Ireland, data centers are expected to consume one-third of the electricity produced in the entire country in the near future. And that’s just the beginning.

Running huge AI models like ChatGPT is one of the most power-intensive things that data centers do, but it accounts for roughly 12 percent of their operations, according to Nvidia. That is expected to change if companies like Google start to weave conversational LLMs into their most popular services. The EPRI report estimates that a single Google search today uses around 0.3 watts of power, while a single Chat GPT query bumps that up to 2.9 watts. Based on those values, the report estimates that an AI-powered Google search would require Google to deploy 400,000 new servers that would consume 22.8 TWh per year.

“AI searches take 10x the electricity of a non-AI search,” Christie, the FERC commissioner, said at a FERC-organized conference. When FERC commissioners are using those numbers, you’d think there would be rock-solid science backing them up. But when Ars asked Chowdhury and Chung about their thoughts on these estimates, they exchanged looks… and smiled.

Closed AI problem

Chowdhury and Chung don't think those numbers are particularly credible. They feel we know nothing about what's going on inside commercial AI systems like ChatGPT or Gemini, because OpenAI and Google have never released actual power-consumption figures.

“They didn’t publish any real numbers, any academic papers. The only number, 0.3 watts per Google search, appeared in some blog post or other PR-related thingy,” Chodwhury said. We don’t know how this power consumption was measured, on what hardware, or under what conditions, he said. But at least it came directly from Google.

“When you take that 10x Google vs ChatGPT equation or whatever—one part is half-known, the other part is unknown, and then the division is done by some third party that has no relationship with Google nor with Open AI,” Chowdhury said.

Google’s “PR-related thingy” was published back in 2009, while the 2.9-watts-per-ChatGPT-query figure was probably based on a comment about the number of GPUs needed to train GPT-4 made by Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, in 2024. That means the “10x AI versus non-AI search” claim was actually based on power consumption achieved on entirely different generations of hardware separated by 15 years. “But the number seemed plausible, so people keep repeating it,” Chowdhury said.

All reports we have today were done by third parties that are not affiliated with the companies building big AIs, and yet they arrive at weirdly specific numbers. “They take numbers that are just estimates, then multiply those by a whole lot of other numbers and get back with statements like ‘AI consumes more energy than Britain, or more than Africa, or something like that.’ The truth is they don’t know that,” Chowdhury said.

He argues that better numbers would require benchmarking AI models using a formal testing procedure that could be verified through the peer-review process.

As it turns out, the ML Energy Initiative defined just such a testing procedure and ran the benchmarks on any AI models they could get ahold of. The group then posted the results online on their ML.ENERGY Leaderboard.

AI-efficiency leaderboard

To get good numbers, the first thing the ML Energy Initiative got rid of was the idea of estimating how power-hungry GPU chips are by using their thermal design power (TDP), which is basically their maximum power consumption. Using TDP was a bit like rating a car’s efficiency based on how much fuel it burned running at full speed. That’s not how people usually drive, and that’s not how GPUs work when running AI models. So Chung built ZeusMonitor, an all-in-one solution that measured GPU power consumption on the fly.

For the tests, his team used setups with Nvidia’s A100 and H100 GPUs, the ones most commonly used at data centers today, and measured how much energy they used running various large language models (LLMs), diffusion models that generate pictures or videos based on text input, and many other types of AI systems.

The largest LLM included in the leaderboard was Meta’s Llama 3.1 405B, an open-source chat-based AI with 405 billion parameters. It consumed 3352.92 joules of energy per request running on two H100 GPUs. That’s around 0.93 watt-hours—significantly less than 2.9 watt-hours quoted for ChatGPT queries. These measurements confirmed the improvements in the energy efficiency of hardware. Mixtral 8x22B was the largest LLM the team managed to run on both Ampere and Hopper platforms. Running the model on two Ampere GPUs resulted in 0.32 watt-hours per request, compared to just 0.15 watt-hours on one Hopper GPU.

What remains unknown, however, is the performance of proprietary models like GPT-4, Gemini, or Grok. The ML Energy Initiative team says it's very hard for the research community to start coming up with solutions to the energy efficiency problems when we don’t even know what exactly we’re facing. We can make estimates, but Chung insists they need to be accompanied by error-bound analysis. We don’t have anything like that today.

The most pressing issue, according to Chung and Chowdhury, is the lack of transparency. “Companies like Google or Open AI have no incentive to talk about power consumption. If anything, releasing actual numbers would harm them,” Chowdhury said. “But people should understand what is actually happening, so maybe we should somehow coax them into releasing some of those numbers.”

Where rubber meets the road

“Energy efficiency in data centers follows the trend similar to Moore’s law—only working at a very large scale, instead of on a single chip,” Nvidia's Harris said. The power consumption per rack, a unit used in data centers housing between 10 and 14 Nvidia GPUs, is going up, he said, but the performance-per-watt is getting better.

“When you consider all the innovations going on in software optimization, cooling systems, MEP (mechanical, electrical, and plumbing), and GPUs themselves, we have a lot of headroom,” Harris said. He expects this large-scale variant of Moore’s law to keep going for quite some time, even without any radical changes in technology.

There are also more revolutionary technologies looming on the horizon. The idea that drove companies like Nvidia to their current market status was the concept that you could offload certain tasks from the CPU to dedicated, purpose-built hardware. But now, even GPUs will probably use their own accelerators in the future. Neural nets and other parallel computation tasks could be implemented on photonic chips that use light instead of electrons to process information. Photonic computing devices are orders of magnitude more energy-efficient than the GPUs we have today and can run neural networks literally at the speed of light.

Another innovation to look forward to is 2D semiconductors, which enable building incredibly small transistors and stacking them vertically, vastly improving the computation density possible within a given chip area. “We are looking at a lot of these technologies, trying to assess where we can take them,” Harris said. “But where rubber really meets the road is how you deploy them at scale. It’s probably a bit early to say where the future bang for buck will be.”

The problem is when we are making a resource more efficient, we simply end up using it more. “It is a Jevons paradox, known since the beginnings of the industrial age. But will AI energy consumption increase so much that it causes an apocalypse? Chung doesn't think so. According to Chowdhury, if we run out of energy to power up our progress, we will simply slow down.

“But people have always been very good at finding the way,” Chowdhury added.

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Seven years ago, three classmates at the Technical University of Munich believed their student engineering project might hold some promise in the private sector.

At the time, one of the co-founders, Daniel Metzler, led a team of 40 students working on rocket engines and launching sounding rockets. Josef Fleischmann was on the team that won the first SpaceX Hyperloop competition. Together with another classmate, Markus Brandl, they crafted rocket parts in a campus workshop before taking the leap and establishing Isar Aerospace, named for the river running through the Bavarian capital.

Now, Isar's big moment has arrived. The company's orbital-class first rocket, named Spectrum, is set to lift off from a shoreline launch pad in Norway as soon as Monday.

The three-hour launch window opens at 12:30 pm local time in Norway, or 7:30 am EDT in the United States. "The launch date remains subject to weather, safety and range infrastructure," Isar said in a statement.

Isar said it received a launch license from the Norwegian Civil Aviation Authority on March 14, following the final qualification test on the Spectrum rocket in February to validate its readiness for flight.

Notably, this will be the first orbital launch attempt from a launch pad in Western Europe. The French-run Guiana Space Center in South America is the primary spaceport for European rockets. Virgin Orbit staged an airborne launch attempt from an airport in the United Kingdom in 2023, and the Plesetsk Cosmodrome is located in European Russia.

No guarantees

Success is never assured on the inaugural launch of a new rocket. Isar is the first in a wave of European launch startups to arrive at this point. The company developed the Spectrum rocket with mostly private funding, although Isar received multimillion-euro investments from the European Space Agency, the German government, and the NATO Innovation Fund.

All told, Isar says it has raised more than 400 million euros, or $435 million at today's currency exchange rate, more than any other European launch startup.

“We are approaching the most important moment of our journey so far, and I would like to thank all our team, partners, customers and investors who have been accompanying and trusting us," said Daniel Metzler, Isar's co-founder and CEO, in a statement.

Most privately-developed rockets have failed to reach orbit on the first try. Several US launch companies that evolved in a similar mold as Isar—such as Rocket Lab, Firefly Aerospace, and Astra—faltered on the way to orbit on their rockets' first flights.

"With this mission, Isar Aerospace aims to collect as much data and experience as possible on its in-house developed launch vehicle. It is the first integrated test of all systems," said Alexandre Dalloneau, Isar's vice president of mission and launch operations.

"The test results will feed into the iterations and development of future Spectrum vehicles, which are being built and tested in parallel," Isar said in a statement.

Europe has struggled to regain its footing after SpaceX took over the dominant position in the global commercial launch market, a segment led for three decades by Europe's Ariane rocket family before SpaceX proved the reliability of the lower-cost, partially reusable Falcon 9 launcher. The continent's new Ariane 6 rocket, funded by ESA and built by a consortium owned by multinational firms Airbus and Safran, is more expensive than the Falcon 9 and years behind schedule. It finally debuted last year.

One ton to LEO

Isar's Spectrum rocket is not as powerful as the SpaceX's Falcon 9 or Arianespace's Ariane 6. But even SpaceX had to start somewhere. Its small Falcon 1 rocket failed three times before tasting success. Spectrum is somewhat larger and more capable than Falcon 1, with performance in line with Firefly's Alpha rocket.

The fully assembled Spectrum rocket stands about 92 feet (28 meters) tall and measures more than 6 feet (2 meters) in diameter. The expendable launcher is designed to haul payloads up to 1 metric ton (2,200 pounds) into low-Earth orbit. Spectrum is powered by nine Aquila engines on its first stage, and one engine on the second stage, burning a mixture of propane and liquid oxygen propellants.

There are no customer satellites aboard the first Spectrum test flight. The rocket will climb into a polar orbit from Andøya Spaceport in northern Norway, but Isar hasn't published a launch timeline or the exact parameters of the target orbit.

While modest in size next to Europe's Ariane launcher family, Isar's Spectrum is the largest German rocket since the V-2, the World War II weapon of terror launched by Nazi Germany against targets in Great Britain, Belgium, and other places. In the 80 years since the war, German industry developed a handful of small sounding rockets, and manufactured upper stages for Ariane rockets.

But German governments have long shunned spending on launchers at levels commensurate with the nation's place as a top contributor to ESA. France took the lead in the continent's postwar rocket industry, providing the lion's share of funding for Ariane, and taking responsibility for building engines and booster stages.

Now, 80 years to the week since the last V-2 launch of World War II, Germany again has a homegrown liquid-fueled rocket on the launch pad. This time, it's for a much different purpose.

As a first step, Isar and other companies in Europe are vying to inject competition with Arianespace into the European launch market. This will begin with small government-funded satellites that otherwise would have likely launched on rideshare flights by SpaceX or Arianespace.

In 2022, the German space agency (known as DLR) announced the selection of research and demo payloads slated to fly on Spectrum's second launch. The Norwegian Space Agency revealed a contract earlier this month for Isar to launch a pair of satellites for the country's Arctic Ocean Surveillance program.

Within the next few days, ESA is expected to release an "invitation to tender" for European industry to submit proposals for the European Launcher Challenge. This summer, ESA will select winners from Europe's crop of launch startups to demonstrate their rockets can deliver the agency's scientific satellites to orbit. This is the first time ESA has experimented with a fully commercial business model, with launch service contracts to private companies. Isar is a leading contender to win the launcher challenge, alongside other European companies like Rocket Factory Augsburg, HyImpulse, MaiaSpace, and others.

Previously, ESA has provided billions of euros to Europe's big incumbent rocket companies for development of new generations of Ariane rockets. Now, ESA wants follow the path of NASA, which has used fixed-price service contracts to foster commercial cargo and crew transportation to the International Space Station, and most recently, privately-owned landers on the Moon.

"Whatever the outcome, Isar Aerospace's upcoming Spectrum launch will be historic: the first commercial orbital launch from mainland Europe," Josef Aschbacher, ESA's director general, posted on X. "The support and co-funding the European Space Agency has given Isar Aerospace and other launch service provider startups is paying off for increased autonomy in Europe. Wishing Isar Aerospace a great launch day with fair weather and most importantly, that the data they receive from the liftoff will speed next iterations of their rockets."

Toni Tolker-Nielsen, ESA's acting director of space transportation, called this moment a "paradigm shift" for Europe's launcher strategy.

"In the last 40 years, we have had these ESA-developed launchers that we have been relying on," Tolker-Nielsen told Ars in an interview. "So we started with Ariane 1 up to Ariane 6. Vega C came onboard. And it's been working like that for the last 40 years. Now, we are moving into in the '30s, and the next decades, to have privately-developed launchers."

Isar Aerospace's first Spectrum rocket will lift off from the remote Andøya Spaceport in Norway, a gorgeous location that might be the world's most picturesque launch site. Nestled on the western coast of an island inside the Arctic Circle, Andøya offers an open path over the Norwegian Sea for rockets to fly north, where they can place satellites into polar orbit.

The spaceport is operated by Andøya Space, a company 90 percent owned by the Norwegian government through the Ministry for Trade, Industry, and Fisheries. Until now, Andøya Spaceport has been used for launches of suborbital sounding rockets.

No better time than now

Isar's first launch comes amid an abrupt turn in European strategic policy as the continent's leaders struggle with how to respond to moves by President Donald Trump in his first two months in office. In recent weeks, the Trump administration put European leaders on their heels with sudden policy reversals and unpredictable statements on Ukraine, NATO, and the US government's long-term backstopping of European security.

Friedrich Merz, set to become Germany's next chancellor, said last month that Europe should strive to "achieve independence" from the United States. "It is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe."

Last week, Merz shepherded a bill through German parliament to amend the country's constitution, allowing for a significant increase in German defense spending. The incoming chancellor said the change is "nothing less than the first major step towards a new European defense community."

The erosion of Europe's trust in the Trump administration prompted rumors that the US government could trigger a "kill switch" to turn off combat capabilities of F-35 fighter jets sold to US allies. This would have previously seemed like a far-fetched conspiracy theory, but some European officials felt compelled to make statements denying the kill switch reports. Still, the recent turbulence in trans-Atlantic relations has some US allies rethinking their plans to buy more US-made fighter jets and weapons systems.

"Reliable and predictable orders should go to European manufacturers whenever possible," Merz said.

This uncertainty extends to space, where it is most apparent in the launch industry. SpaceX, founded and led by Trump ally Elon Musk, dominates the global commercial launch business. European governments have repeatedly turned to SpaceX to launch multiple defense and scientific satellites over the last several years, while Europe encountered delays with its homegrown Ariane 6 and Vega rockets.

Until 2022, Europe and Russia jointly operated Soyuz rockets from the Guiana Space Center in South America to deploy government and commercial payloads to orbit. The partnership ended with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Europe's flagship Ariane 5 rocket retired in 2023, a year before its replacement—the Ariane 6—debuted on its first test flight from the Guiana Space Center. The first operational flight of the Ariane 6 delivered a French military spy satellite to orbit March 6. The smaller Vega C rocket successfully launched in December, two years after officials grounded the vehicle due to an in-flight failure.

ESA funded development of the Ariane 6 and Vega C in partnership with ArianeGroup, a joint venture between Airbus and Safran, and the Italian defense contractor Avio.

For the moment, Europe's launcher program is back on track to provide autonomous access to space, a capability European officials consider a strategic imperative. Philippe Baptiste, France's minister for research and higher education, said after the Ariane 6 flight earlier this month that the launch was "proof" of European space sovereignty.

"The return of Donald Trump to the White House, with Elon Musk at his side, already has significant consequences on our research partnerships, on our commercial partnerships," Baptiste said in his remarkably pointed prepared remarks. "If we want to maintain our independence, ensure our security, and preserve our sovereignty, we must equip ourselves with the means for strategic autonomy, and space is an essential part of this."

The problem? Ariane 6 and Vega C are costly, lack a path to reusability, and aren't geared to match SpaceX's blistering launch cadence. If Europe wants autonomous access to space, European taxpayers will have to pay a premium. Isar's Spectrum also isn't reusable, but European officials hope competition from new startups will produce fresh launch options, and perhaps stimulate an inspired response from Europe's entrenched launch companies.

"In today's geopolitical climate, our first test flight is about much more than a rocket launch: Space is one of the most critical platforms for our security, resilience and technological advancement," Metzler said. "In the next days, Isar Aerospace will lay the foundations to regain much needed independent and competitive access to space from Europe."

Tolker-Nielsen, in charge of ESA's space transportation division, said this is the first of many steps for Europe to develop a thriving commercial launch sector.

"This launch is a milestone, which is very important," he said. "It's the first conclusion of all this work, so I will be looking carefully on that. I cross my fingers that it goes well."

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THIS ARTICLE IS republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

You’re in the middle of the afternoon, eyelids heavy, focus slipping. You close your eyes for half an hour and wake up feeling recharged. But later that night, you’re tossing and turning in bed, wondering why you can’t drift off. That midday snooze which felt so refreshing at the time might be the reason.

Naps have long been praised as a tool for boosting alertness, enhancing mood, strengthening memory, and improving productivity. Yet for some, they can sabotage nighttime sleep.

Napping is a double-edged sword. Done right, it’s a powerful way to recharge the brain, improve concentration, and support mental and physical health. Done wrong, it can leave you groggy, disoriented, and struggling to fall asleep later. The key lies in understanding how the body regulates sleep and wakefulness.

Most people experience a natural dip in alertness in the early afternoon, typically between 1 pm and 4 pm. This isn’t just due to a heavy lunch—our internal body clock, or circadian rhythm, creates cycles of wakefulness and tiredness throughout the day. The early afternoon lull is part of this rhythm, which is why so many people feel drowsy at that time.

Studies suggest that a short nap during this period—ideally followed by bright light exposure—can help counteract fatigue, boost alertness, and improve cognitive function without interfering with nighttime sleep. These “power naps” allow the brain to rest without slipping into deep sleep, making it easier to wake up feeling refreshed.

But there’s a catch: Napping too long may result in waking up feeling worse than before. This is due to “sleep inertia”—the grogginess and disorientation that comes from waking up during deeper sleep stages.

Once a nap extends beyond 30 minutes, the brain transitions into slow-wave sleep, making it much harder to wake up. Studies show that waking from deep sleep can leave people feeling sluggish for up to an hour. This can have serious implications if they then try to perform safety-critical tasks, make important decisions, or operate machinery, for example. And if a nap is taken too late in the day, it can eat away from the “sleep pressure build-up”—the body’s natural drive for sleep—making it harder to fall asleep at night.

When Napping Is Essential

For some, napping is essential. Shift workers often struggle with fragmented sleep due to irregular schedules, and a well-timed nap before a night shift can boost alertness and reduce the risk of errors and accidents. Similarly, people who regularly struggle to get enough sleep at night—whether due to work, parenting, or other demands—may benefit from naps to bank extra hours of sleep that compensate for their sleep loss.

Nonetheless, relying on naps instead of improving nighttime sleep is a short-term fix rather than a sustainable solution. People with chronic insomnia are often advised to avoid naps entirely, as daytime sleep can weaken their drive to sleep at night.

Certain groups use strategic napping as a performance-enhancing tool. Athletes incorporate napping into their training schedules to speed up muscle recovery and improve sports-related parameters such as reaction times and endurance. Research also suggests that people in high-focus jobs, such as health care workers and flight crews, benefit from brief planned naps to maintain concentration and reduce fatigue-related mistakes. NASA has found that a 26-minute nap can improve performance of long-haul flight operational staff by 34 percent, and alertness by 54 percent.

How to Nap Well

To nap effectively, timing and environment matter. Keeping naps between 10 and 20 minutes prevents grogginess. The ideal time is before 2 pm—napping too late can push back the body’s natural sleep schedule.

The best naps happen in a cool, dark, and quiet environment, similar to nighttime sleep conditions. Eye masks and noise-canceling headphones can help, particularly for those who nap in bright or noisy settings.

Despite the benefits, napping isn’t for everyone. Age, lifestyle, and underlying sleep patterns all influence whether naps help or hinder. A good nap is all about strategy—knowing when, how, and if one should nap at all.

For some it’s a life hack, improving focus and energy. For others, it’s a slippery slope into sleep disruption. The key is to experiment and observe how naps affect your overall sleep quality.

Done wisely, naps can be a valuable tool. Done poorly, they might be the reason you’re staring at the ceiling at midnight.

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Monday, 24 March

• Who: SpaceX
• What: Falcon 9
• When: 17:48 UTC
• Where: Florida, US
• Why: SpaceX will launch a Falcon 9 carrying the classified NROL-69 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office. Following the launch of the mission, the first stage of the Falcon 9 will likely perform a landing.

Wednesday, 26 March

• Who: Firefly Aerospace
• What: Alpha
• When: 13:37 – 15:17 UTC
• Where: California, US
• Why: Firefly Aerospace will use an Alpha rocket to launch LM 400, a technology demonstration satellite from Lockheed Martin. The LM 400 is intended to be a highly adaptable satellite bus suitable for military, commercial, and civil applications.

• Who: China
• What: Long March 3B/E
• When: 16:00 UTC
• Where: Xichang Satellite Launch Center
• Why: China will launch a Long March 3B/E rocket carrying an unknown payload.

• Who: SpaceX
• What: Falcon 9
• When: 22:00 – 02:00 UTC
• Where: California, US
• Why: SpaceX will use a Falcon 9 to launch 23 Starlink satellites to a low Earth orbit. This is Starlink Group 11-7. After the launch, the first stage of the rocket will likely attempt a landing so that it can be reused.

Saturday, 29 March

• Who: China
• What: Long March 7A
• When: 16:30 UTC
• Where: Wenchang Satellite Launch Center
• Why: This mission is expected to see the launch of Chinasat 4B. This communications and broadcasting satellite will provide voice, data, radio, and television transmission services.

Recap

• The first launch we got last week took off from Plesetsk Cosmodrome in Russia. An Angara 1.2 rocket was used to launch three Rodnik-S communications satellites for the Russian military.
• The second launch saw the Chinese firm Galactic Energy launch the Ceres 1. It was carrying two satellites of the AIRSAT constellation and was equipped with multispectral camera payloads, offering 2m resolution imaging capabilities.

• Next up, Rocket Lab launched an Electron rocket carrying Kineis satellites, which will provide IoT communications services.

• The fourth launch came from SpaceX, which launched a Falcon 9 carrying Starlink Group 12-25. There were 23 Starlinks aboard, including 13 Direct-to-Cell satellites.

• The following launch was another Falcon 9 from SpaceX, but this time, it was carrying the classified NROL-57 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office.

• In the final mission of the week, Galactic Energy launched a Ceres 1 rocket carrying six Yunyao meteorological satellites. The satellites carry GNSS occultation or long-wave infrared camera payloads to provide meteorological data.

That's it for this week; be sure to check in next week!

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Measles has arrived in Kansas and is spreading swiftly in communities with very low vaccination rates. Since last week, the state has tallied 10 cases across three counties with more pending.

On March 13, health officials announced the state's first measles case since 2018. The case was reported in Stevens County, which sits in the southwest corner of the state. As of now, it's unclear if the case is connected to the mushrooming outbreak that began in West Texas.

That initial case in Kansas already shows potential to mushroom on its own. Stevens County contains two school districts, both of which have extremely low vaccination rates among kindergartners. By the time children enter kindergarten, they should have their two doses of Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) vaccine, which together are 97 percent effective against measles. In the 2023–2024 school year, rates of kindergartners with their two shots stood at 83 percent in the Hugoton school district and 80 percent in the Moscow school district, according to state data. Those rates are significantly below the 95 percent threshold needed to block the onward community spread of measles—one of the most infectious viruses known to humankind.

As of today, March 21, Stevens County has reported three more cases—two confirmed and one epidemiologically linked probable case—bringing the total to four cases. And there's more to come.

"We do have pending cases at this time," the county's health department wrote in a Facebook update this afternoon. "We want to keep our community informed—this is a fluid situation and we are focused on working closely with the identified positives and their contacts."

On the west border of Stevens sits Morton County, which on Wednesday reported three confirmed cases linked to the first case reported last week in Stevens. Morton County has two school districts, Elkhart and Rolla. The vaccination coverage for kindergartners in Elkhart in 2023–2024 was also a low 83 percent, while the coverage in Rolla was not reported.

On Thursday, the county on the northern border of Stevens, Grant County, also reported three confirmed cases, which were also linked to the first case in Stevens. Grant County is in a much better position to handle the outbreak than its neighbors; its one school district, Ulysses, reported 100 percent vaccination coverage for kindergartners in the 2023–2024 school year.

Outbreak risk

So far, details about the fast-rising cases are scant. The Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) has not published another press release about the cases since March 13. Ars Technica reached out to KDHE for more information but did not hear back before this story's publication.

The outlet KWCH 12 News out of Wichita published a story Thursday, when there were just six cases reported in just Grant and Stevens Counties, saying that all six were in unvaccinated people and that no one had been hospitalized. On Friday, KWCH updated the story to note that the case count had increased to 10 and that the health department now considers the situation an outbreak.

Measles is an extremely infectious virus that can linger in airspace and on surfaces for up to two hours after an infected person has been in an area. Among unvaccinated people exposed to the virus, 90 percent will become infected.

Vaccination rates have slipped nationwide, creating pockets that have lost herd immunity and are vulnerable to fast-spreading, difficult-to-stop outbreaks. In the past, strong vaccination rates prevented such spread, and in 2000, the virus was declared eliminated, meaning there was no continuous spread of the virus over a 12-month period. Experts now fear that the US will lose its elimination status, meaning measles will once again be considered endemic to the country.

So far this year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has documented 378 measles cases as of Thursday, March 20. That figure is already out of date.

On Friday, the Texas health department reported 309 cases in its ongoing outbreak. Forty people have been hospitalized, and one unvaccinated child with no underlying medical conditions has died. The outbreak has spilled over to New Mexico and Oklahoma. In New Mexico, officials reported Friday that the case count has risen to 42 cases, with two hospitalizations and one death in an unvaccinated adult. In Oklahoma, the case count stands at four.

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Today, it emerged that Boeing has won its bid to supply the United States Air Force with its next jet fighter. As with the last fighter aircraft design procurement in recent times, the Department of Defense was faced with a choice between awarding Boeing or Lockheed the contract for the Next Generation Air Dominance program, which will replace the Lockheed F-22 Raptor sometime in the 2030s.

Very little is known about the NGAD, which the Air Force actually refers to as a "family of systems," as its goal of owning the skies requires more than just a fancy airplane. The program has been underway for a decade, and a prototype designed by the Air Force first flew in 2020, breaking records in the process (although what records and by how much was not disclosed).

Last summer, the Pentagon paused the program as it reevaluated whether the NGAD would still meet its needs and whether it could afford to pay for the plane, as well as a new bomber, a new early warning aircraft, a new trainer, and a new ICBM, all at the same time. But in late December, it concluded that, yes, a crewed replacement for the F-22 was in the national interest.

While no images have ever been made public, then-Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said in 2024 that "it's an F-22 replacement. You can make some inferences from that."

The decision is good news for Boeing's plant in St. Louis, which is scheduled to end production of the F/A-18 Super Hornet in 2027. Boeing lost its last bid to build a fighter jet when its X-32 lost out to Lockheed's X-35 in the Joint Strike Fighter competition in 2001.

A separate effort to award a contract for the NGAD's engine, called the Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion, is underway between Pratt & Whitney and GE Aerospace, with an additional program aiming to develop "drone wingmen" also in the works between General Atomics and Anduril.

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What do we have in common with fish, besides being vertebrates? The types of joints we (and most vertebrates) share most likely originated from the same common ancestor. But it’s not a feature that we share with all vertebrates.

Humans, other land vertebrates, and jawed fish have synovial joints. The lubricated cavity within these joints makes them more mobile and stable because it allows for bones or cartilage to slide against each other without friction, which facilitates movement.

The origin of these joints was uncertain. Now, biologist Neelima Sharma of the University of Chicago and her colleagues have taken a look at which fish form this type of joint. Synovial joints are known to be present in jawed but not jawless fish. This left the question of whether they are just a feature of bony skeletons in general or if they are also found in fish with cartilaginous skeletons, such as sharks and skates (there are no land animals with cartilaginous skeletons).

As Sharma and her team found, cartilaginous fish with jaws, such as the skate embryos they studied, do develop these joints, while jawless fish, such as lampreys and hagfish, lack them.

So what could this mean? If jawed fish have synovial joints in common with all jawed vertebrates, including us, it must have evolved in our shared ancestor.

Something fishy in our past

While the common ancestor of vertebrates with synovial joints is still a mystery, the oldest specimen with evidence of these joints is Bothriolepis canadensis, a fish that lived about 387 to 360 million years ago during the Middle to Late Devonian period.

When using CT scanning to study a Bothriolepis fossil, Sharma observed a joint cavity between the shoulder and pectoral fin. Whether the cavity was filled with synovial fluid or cartilage is impossible to tell, but either way, she thinks it appears to have functioned like a synovial joint would. Fossils of early jawless fish, in contrast, lack any signs of synovial joints.

“Fossils from the extinct clades along the [jawed fish] stem suggest that joints with reciprocally articulating surfaces arose in the dermal skeleton of the common ancestor of all jawed vertebrates,” Sharma and her team said in a study recently published in PLOS Biology. “Synovial joints in cartilaginous tissue were a subsequent gnathostome innovation.” This suggests that the earliest joints arose in dermal bone, which forms beneath the skin into a plate-like structure like that found in skull bones. But it appears that synovial joints arose sometime after that, which raises the possibility that they appeared with the evolution of bones.

While cartilage and bone are both connective tissue, the extracellular matrix these cells are embedded in is much thinner and softer in cartilage, while in bone, that matrix is calcified and hard. Demonstrating that cartilaginous jawed fish also have synovial joints opens up the questions of whether their–and our–common ancestor also had them.

The way you move

To see if cartilaginous fish share our synovial joints, Sharma studied little skates (Leucoraja erinacea) and compared their joint morphology to that of sea lampreys (Petromyozon marinus) and hagfish (Myxine glutinosa), two types of jawless fish. She found the skeletons of both lampreys and hagfish are made of cartilage segments connected by muscle, connective tissue, or more cartilage. There were no cavities in between.

The skeleton of an adult little skate showed a jaw that slides much like a synovial joint and that its pectoral fin and pelvic joints are also built like synovial joints, with lubricated cavities between the bones that help them slide against each other.

Embryos of little skates were then studied to see when cavitation actually happened. Their bones do not undergo the cavitation necessary for synovial joints until later stages of development. At that point, joints in the jaw and pelvis are the first to cavitate. This process is similar in species with bony skeletons.

Right before their joints cavitate, little skate embryos start producing the protein aggrecan. This is crucial to the function of joint cartilage because of its hydrated gel structure, which gives cartilage more strength. Aggrecan is first made throughout the entire skeleton and then concentrates in the joints. There are several other proteins needed for joint formation in land vertebrates (notably, members of the TGF-beta family of signaling molecules), and these proteins were also active in the jaw, pelvis, and pectoral fin joints of little skate embryos as they developed.

Synovial joints also cannot develop without muscle activity, which is crucial in the development of joints in chicken and mouse embryos—and the synovial joints of little skates actually develop similarly. Some of the little skate embryos were purposely paralyzed right before their joints would begin to cavitate. While embryos that were not paralyzed continued with the cavitation process, cavitated joints did not form in those that were paralyzed.

We haven’t yet unearthed a fossil of the common ancestor of all vertebrates with synovial joints. However, Sharma’s team was able to demonstrate that they develop in cartilaginous jawed fish just as they do in bony fish, but they’re not found in jawless fish, meaning that this mysterious ancestor had to have also been a jawed vertebrate.

“Our results are consistent with such functional studies showing that [jawed cartilaginous fish], like tetrapods, rely on synovial joints for exhibiting considerable jaw and fin movements,” the researchers said in the same study. “But with the exception of the rest of the vertebrates, our results do not support their presence in [jawless fish].”

We don’t look like fish, move like fish, breathe underwater like fish, or (this is probably for the best) smell like fish, but somehow, even if they are used for different types of motions, our joints are structured the same way as those of fish. Evolution has a sense of humor.

PLoS Biology, 2025.  DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3002990

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Welcome to Edition 7.36 of the Rocket Report! Well, after nine months, NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams are finally back on Earth, safe and sound. This brings to conclusion one of the stranger and more dramatic human spaceflight stories in years. We're glad they're finally home, soon to be reunited with their families.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Summary of 2024 launch activity. In its annual launch report, released earlier this month, Bryce Tech analyzed the 259 orbital launches conducted last year. Among the major trends the analysts found were: Nearly 60 percent of all launches were conducted by US providers, Commercial providers accounted for about 70 percent of launches, and Small satellites, primarily for communications, represented the majority of all spacecraft launched at 97 percent.

Trends dominated by Starlink launches ... SpaceX conducted more than half of the launches last year (134), putting 2,390 spacecraft into orbit (the vast majority of which were Starlink satellites). The next closest competitor was China, with 48 launches and 186 spacecraft. The nearest US competitor to SpaceX was Rocket Lab, with 14 launches and 33 spacecraft. The competition in "upmass," that is total kg lofted into orbit, was less close still. SpaceX put 1.86 million kg into space, followed by China (164,000 kg) and Roscosmos (76,000). The closest US competitor was United Launch Alliance, at 29,000 kg. Put another way, for every kilogram ULA put into orbit, SpaceX lofted 66.

MaiaSpace inks first commercial customer. MaiaSpace, a French subsidiary of ArianeGroup founded in 2022, signed an agreement to fly multiple missions for Exotrail’s SpaceVan orbital transfer vehicle beginning in 2027. The partnership with Exotrail provides an early vote of confidence that the reusable Maia rocket can increase Europe’s sovereign launch capabilities, Payload reports. This is one of several launch agreements signed recently by Exotrail.

Hitting the trail ... Exotrail flew its first SpaceVan mission on SpaceX’s Transporter-9 flight in November 2023 and deployed the Endurosat-built “EXO-0” cubesat in LEO after three months in orbit. In November, the company signed a deal with Arianespace to launch Exotrail’s first SpaceVan mission to geostationary transfer orbit in the latter half of 2026. After leaving Ariane 64, SpaceVan will tow a customer satellite to GEO, demonstrating its ability to deliver satellites to the full range of orbital trajectories. (submitted by gma)

Electron launches twice in three days. Rocket Lab completed the deployment of a constellation of Internet of Things satellites for French company Kinéis with an Electron launch on Monday. The launch was the fifth and final mission under a contract signed by the companies in 2021. Each launch carried five satellites, weighing 28 kilograms each, to complete a 25-satellite constellation.

Continuing to steadily increase cadence ... For Rocket Lab, this was the second launch in a little more than 72 hours, after another Electron launched a radar imaging satellite for Japanese company iQPS March 14. It was the fourth launch so far this year for Rocket Lab, which previously stated it expects to perform more than 20 Electron launches, including the HASTE suborbital version, this year.

Pangea raises Series A funding. The Spanish startup announced this week that it has raised 23 million euros ($25 million) in Series A funding, European Spaceflight reports. This funding includes contributions from former ArianeGroup CEO André-Hubert Roussel. Founded in 2018, Pangea Aerospace initially aimed to develop Meso, a small rocket designed to deliver 400 kilograms to low-Earth orbit. The rocket was to be powered by a unique, in-house-developed methalox aerospike engine.

Twice the size ... However, in early 2023, the company announced it had abandoned the development of Meso to focus on providing propulsion systems for rockets and in-orbit applications. Pangea is currently in the process of developing ARCOS, an aerospike engine designed for use aboard the booster and/or upper stage of a rocket. According to Pangea, the funding will be used to “accelerate its expansion in the European market,” aiming to grow its customer base. It will look to double its workforce and scale up its manufacturing, integration, and testing capabilities.

Relativity Space eyeing move to Texas. As he consolidates control over Relativity Space, new owner and chief executive Eric Schmidt is planning significant changes at the launch company, including a likely move to the Lone Star State, Ars reports. The company faces several major challenges as it seeks to bring the Terran R rocket to market, particularly in logistics. This is because Terran R is a large launch vehicle, too large to move across the country by highway.

Watching for Baytown ... The company's initial plan was to manufacture first stages at its massive factory in Long Beach, California, and ship them through the Panama Canal to a test site at the Stennis Space Center in southern Mississippi. From there, they would be moved by barge again to the launch site in Florida. But this was expensive and time-consuming. Two sources have indicated that Relativity Space will likely move a significant portion of its Terran R manufacturing to Baytown, Texas, which is near Houston. Such a location would provide water access on the right side of the Panama Canal. Relativity has not made a formal announcement.

Crew-10 launches to ISS. A Falcon 9 rocket launched four astronauts safely into orbit on Friday evening, marking the official beginning of the Crew-10 mission to the International Space Station. Friday's launch came two days after an initial attempt was scrubbed on Wednesday evening, Ars reports. This was due to a hydraulic issue with the ground systems that handle the Falcon 9 rocket at Launch Complex 39A in Florida.

Smooth ride to orbit ... There were no technical issues on Friday, and with clear skies, NASA astronauts Anne McClain and Nichole Ayers, Japanese astronaut Takuya Onishi, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Kirill Peskov rocketed smoothly into orbit. Although any crew launch into orbit is notable, this mission came with an added bit of importance as its success cleared the way for two NASA astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, to finally return home from space after a saga spanning nine months. They did so on Tuesday evening.

SpaceX pushes Falcon 9 booster reuse record. On March 12 a Falcon 9 rocket first stage made its third launch, lofting the SPHEREx and PUNCH missions into low-Earth orbit for NASA. Following the successful launch, the first stage landed near the launch site at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Now, this same stage could launch again on Thursday night from Vandenberg, carrying the NROL-57 mission for the US Space Force.

Rapid reuse is a thing ... The launch is scheduled for 06:49 UTC, and if it takes place it would be just nine days and four hours since the SPHEREx mission. This would shatter the company's previous booster turnaround, set in November, of a little more than 13 days. The fast turnaround was no doubt enabled by landing the booster back near the launch site, speeding the process of inspecting and refurbishing the rocket. It's also impressive that the Space Force greenlit such a fast turnaround time for a national security payload.

And launch pad turnaround, too. SpaceX launched its latest batch of Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at sunrise Saturday morning. The mission marked a record-breaking turnaround for launch operations at Space Launch Complex 40, Spaceflight Now reports. The launch of 23 Starlink Version 2 Mini satellites came two days, eight hours, 59 minutes, and 40 seconds after the launch of the Starlink 12-21 mission. This beat SpaceX’s previous turnaround time at that pad by nearly six hours.

Ever pushing forward ... Recently, Ars covered a recent string of issues with the Falcon 9 rocket, notably with its upper stage. The principal reason is that SpaceX continues to push the envelope with even its mature products like the Falcon 9 rocket, which is now nearly 15 years old. While we can take note of issues, it's also worth celebrating the incredibly hard work that goes into pushing cadence and turnaround times. Moreover, success with the Falcon 9 rocket supports the notion that, one day, SpaceX will be able to reach a high cadence of operations with Starship.

The Jeff and the Donald. Over the past year, Amazon and Blue Origin founder Bezos has executed a sharp public reversal in his relationship with President Trump—whom he previously criticized as a “threat to democracy”—that has surprised even longtime associates. An article in the Financial Times explores this change, and finds that it is likely due, at least in part, to Bezos' interest in his space company. There are some spicy, and to my sense of things, accurate comments that explain why Bezos has sought to curry favor with Trump.

One longtime adviser cautions ... "He cares most about Blue Origin. His chance of being the player he wants to become in space could be destroyed" if the world’s richest man (Elon Musk) and most powerful politician united against him. "The growth trajectory for the entire enterprise depends on the federal contract... otherwise Blue is dead in the water." Another close associate says that any move by Trump to deprioritize lunar missions in favor of Musk’s aspirations to reach Mars would have a significant impact on the company’s viability and success. "It is what he has always dreamt of. Nothing will hurt Jeff financially—Blue is a money loser. It is more the opportunity to be involved."

Next three launches

March 21: Falcon 9 | NROL-57 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif. | 06:49 UTC

March 23: Spectrum | Demo flight | Andøya Rocket Range, Norway | 11:30 UTC

March 24: Falcon 9 | NROL-69 | Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida | 17:42 UTC

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Human speech arises courtesy of some significant neural horsepower. Different areas of the brain are involved in determining the meaning that's desired, finding the words to express it, and then converting those words to a specific series of sounds—and all that comes before the correct sequence of nerve impulses is sent to the muscles that produce the final output. Humans are far from alone in the animal kingdom with an impressive range of vocalizations, though. That raises the prospect that we can understand a bit more about our own speech by studying how vocalization is managed in different animals.

One group of species that's especially interesting is birds. They're distant relatives compared to other animals with interesting vocal capabilities, like whales and elephants, and their brains have some notable differences from ours. They also show a range of behaviors, from complex songs to vocal mimicry to whatever it is that you want to call what parrots do. Thanks to a newly released study, however, we now have evidence that these different types of vocalization are the product of different control systems in the brain.

The study relied on electrodes placed in the brains of parrots and songbirds and tracked the behavior of neurons in a region that controls vocalization. It showed that the two relied on different types of control, with parrots having a system that operates similarly to the one used by humans.

Timing isn’t everything

The work focused on two species of birds. One is the zebra finch, a songbird that learns to produce a short song it uses each year, in part by listening to what its peers are singing. The second is the budgerigar, a small parrot that's often kept as a pet. Budgerigars are both impressive vocal mimics and also have complex vocalizations called warbles that are a mix of noisy and harmonic calls.

Due to past work, we've already identified the brain structure that controls the activity of the key vocal organ, the syrinx, located in the bird's throat. The new study, done by Zetian Yang and Michael Long of New York University, managed to place fine electrodes into this area of the brain in both species and track the activity of neurons there while the birds were awake and going about normal activities. This allowed them to associate neural activity with any vocalizations made by the birds. For the budgerigars, they had an average of over 1,000 calls from each of the four birds carrying the implanted electrodes.

For the zebra finch, neural activity during song production showed a pattern that was based on timing; the same neurons tended to be most active at the same point in the song. You can think of this as a bit like a player piano central organizing principle, timing when different notes should be played. "Different configurations [of neurons] are active at different moments, representing an evolving population ‘barcode,’" as Yang and Long describe this pattern.

That is not at all what was seen with the budgerigars. Here, instead, they saw patterns where the same populations of neurons tended to be active when the bird was producing a similar sound. They broke the warbles down into parts that they characterized on a scale that ranged from harmonic to noisy. They found that the groups of neurons tended to be more active whenever the warble was harmonic, and different groups tended to spike when it got noisy. Those observations led them to identify a third population, which was active whenever the budgerigars produced a low-frequency sound.

In addition, Yang and Long analyzed the pitch of the vocalizations. Only about half of the neurons in the relevant region of the brain were linked to pitch. However, the half that was linked had small groups of neurons that fired during the production of a relatively narrow range of pitches. They could use the activity of as few as five individual neurons and accurately predict the pitch of the vocalizations at the time.

Structural similarities

Both of these birds use a specific region of the brain to control the muscles of the syrinx to produce a series of sounds. But they organize that process completely differently. The zebra finch has neurons that trigger the right muscles for a given time within the song—even if a similar sound needs to be produced earlier or later. By contrast, the budgerigar organizes things so that the same neurons fire whenever a similar tone needs to be produced; the timing of the tone within a warble is apparently handled elsewhere.

"Our finding of a ‘universal’ motor representation in the budgerigar forebrain indicates that AAC neurons do not represent the individual vocalizations per se," Yang and Long write, "but instead the underlying motor processes that generate those
vocalizations."

That's in keeping with the budgerigar's warbles, which are more tonally complex than a typical songbird vocalization and aren't repeated with the same sort of consistency as the zebra finch's song.

And that's similar to how the last step in human speech production is handled; earlier steps in the process break down our vocalizations into individual sounds, and a specific region of the brain is devoted to producing the right anatomical configuration to produce them. It's important to emphasize that this doesn't mean the budgerigar's warbles are like language; we don't currently know what's upstream of this translation step in these birds and whether that has any parallels in humans.

The other big open question is what drove the budgerigar and its relatives to develop a system so unlike that of the zebra finch. It's possible that complex calls were being selected for, and the ancestors of parrots evolved this system to fill that need. But it's equally possible that this organization came about for some other reason or entirely by chance, and the birds simply started using it to produce more complex calls.

Nature, 2025. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08695-8  (About DOIs).

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Time and again, studies and surveys identify the time it takes to charge an electric vehicle as one of the most significant hurdles affecting EV adoption. For generations, drivers have gotten used to being able to refuel their cars in five minutes using energy-dense liquid hydrocarbons, and plenty of them balk at the idea of having to drive a car where recharging a battery takes half an hour or more. Now it seems that may not be an excuse for much longer—in China, at least.

New tech has been developed by BYD, the Chinese automaker that recently eclipsed Tesla as the leading EV maker by volume. Called the "super e-platform," the new batteries are able to charge at 10C, and the new DC chargers peak at 1,000 kW. BYD says this will add 249 miles (400 km) of range in just five minutes. By contrast, most current Tesla Superchargers peak at 250 kW, with Electrify America's chargers maxing out at 350 kW, and even the powerful new chargers used by Formula E can only reach 600 kW.

"Our goal is to make EV charging as fast as refueling a gasoline car," said BYD chairperson Wang Chuanfu.

BYD says it plans to build more than 4,000 of the new megawatt chargers, and customers will be able to make use of them with a pair of new EVs (the Han L sedan and Tang L SUV), which will go on sale shortly. But only in China.

While the brand sells its EVs in other markets, notably Europe, its presence in the US is limited to batteries and electric buses, and members of Congress from both political parties have been working over the past couple of years to prevent BYD or other Chinese EV makers from entering the US market.

We should also note that the "250 miles" would decrease significantly when using the EPA range estimate rather than the more generous CLTC testing regime used in China. But even under the EPA scheme, BYD's new charging platform sounds like a step above anything else being offered for passenger EVs. Perhaps an automaker that does sell its cars in the US will be able to license it...

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About 252 million years ago, volcanic eruptions triggered the End-Permian Mass Extinction, also known as the Great Dying. About 96 percent of marine species were wiped out—but were things just as grim on land?

Scientists have debated whether this event caused nearly as much terrestrial destruction. Now, researchers from the Nanjing Institute of Geology and Paleontology (NIGPAS) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences suggest that terrestrial ecosystems did not suffer nearly as much as the oceans.

Led by paleontologist Feng Liu, the NIGPAS team found evidence for refugiums, oases where life thrived despite the devastation. Not only did these refugiums give life a chance to survive the mass extinction event, which lasted 200,000 years, but they are now thought to have been crucial to rebuilding ecosystems in much less time than was previously assumed.

“This environment might have served as a refugium for the iconic Mesozoic flora that emerged in the late Permian, potentially contributing to the stability of the food chain and attracting numerous terrestrial animals that survived,” the NIGPAS team said in a study recently published in Science Advances.

Life, uh, finds a way

At the Turpan-Hami Basin, an archaeological site in Xinjiang, Liu and his team unearthed fossilized tree trunks and fern stems, their roots still firmly planted in the stone that was once soil hundreds of millions of years ago, that demonstrated these plants had actually grown there and were not just scattered remains.

Preserved pollen grains and other spores told them about the diversity of plant life in the refugium, something like an oasis where there is food and water available, and environmental conditions are moderate enough to keep organisms surviving through natural disasters and other adverse conditions.

The researchers tracked which species disappeared as they went from older to younger rock layers, which spanned from before the mass extinction to directly after. Using zircon dating of the rock layers in which spores were embedded, they determined that most of the plant species found had started growing in the area 60–160,000 years before the mass extinction and persisted through up to 210,000 years after the catastrophe.

Some earlier plants might not have made it through the extinction since rock layers from the onset of the End-Permian Mass Extinction showed a decrease in pollen and spores, as well as fewer plant species. Other species were scarce because they had not been as well-preserved as others; the team did not automatically assume the scarcity of a plant that did not fossilize meant it had gone extinct.

While there were plant species that ended up being victims of the Great Dying, analysis of species through spore and pollen told the team that only about 21 percent of them succumbed to extinction.

Life will not be contained

The fossils also revealed the presence of plant species known to grow near lakes, which meant an environment that most likely provided drinking water for land-dwelling animals. Fossilized spores farther from what were once the banks of an ancient lake or the edge of a lakeplain suggest it was surrounded by a forest of gymnospermous trees, such as conifers or ginkgo, and ferns.

Because the researchers found so many spores from plant species known to grow in humid climates, they think the regional climate before the extinction was either humid or sub-humid, with plenty of rain. It was a lush environment that would see dry periods during the mass extinction event, but not be completely devastated.

Despite some species of plants vanishing, those that were found to have survived during and after the extinction mostly belonged to conifers and pteridosperms (now-extinct plants similar to ferns), which showed “a remarkable ability to adapt to drought,” as Liu and his team said in the same study.

The drought turned out to be only temporary. Younger rock layers were found to contain a greater abundance of pollen and spores from species that grew during the extinction event. The types of plants represented suggest a climate that had returned to subhumid and was more habitable.

Fossils of animals found at the site support its role as a haven for life. From the herbivorous Lystrosaurus (not a dinosaur), which looked something like a walrus with legs and a shovel face, to the carnivorous chroniosuchians that resembled giant lizards and fed on insects and small amphibians, the refugium in what is now Xinjiang kept life going.

Both flora and fauna would soon spread across terrestrial environments once again. Life on land flourished only 75,000 years after the End-Permian Mass Extinction, so life really does find a way.

Science Advances, 2025. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ads5614

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Optical illusions are great fun, and they fool virtually everyone. But have you ever wondered if you could train yourself to unsee these illusions? Our latest research suggests that you can.

Optical illusions tell a lot about how people see things. For example, look at the picture below.

The two orange circles are identical, but the one on the right looks bigger. Why? We use context to figure out what we are seeing. Something surrounded by smaller things is often quite big. Our visual system takes context into account, so it judges the orange circle on the right as bigger than the one on the left.

This illusion was discovered by German psychologist Herman Ebbinghaus in the 19th century. This and similar geometrical illusions have been studied by psychologists ever since.

How much you are affected by illusions like these depends on who you are. For example, women are more affected by the illusion than men—they see things more in context.

Younger children do not see illusions at all. To a 5-year-old, the two orange circles look the same. It takes time to learn how to use context cues.

Neurodevelopmental conditions similarly affect illusion perception. People with autism or schizophrenia are less likely to see illusions. This is because these people tend to pay greater attention to the central circle, and less to the surrounding ones.

The culture you grew up in also affects how much you attend to context. Research has found that East Asian perception is more holistic, taking everything into account. Western perception is more analytic, focusing on central objects.

These differences would predict greater illusion sensitivity in East Asia. And true enough, Japanese people seem to experience much stronger effects than British people in this kind of illusion.

This may also depend on environment. Japanese people typically live in urban environments. In crowded urban scenes, being able to keep track of objects relative to other objects is important. This requires more attention to context. Members of the nomadic Himba tribe in the almost uninhabited Namibian desert do not seem to be fooled by the illusion at all.

Gender, developmental, neurodevelopmental and cultural differences are all well established when it comes to optical illusions. However, what scientists did not know until now is whether people can learn to see illusions less intensely.

A hint came from our previous work comparing mathematical and social scientists’ judgements of illusions (we work in universities, so we sometimes study our colleagues). Social scientists, such as psychologists, see illusions more strongly.

Researchers like us have to take many factors into account. Perhaps this makes us more sensitive to context even in the way we see things. But also, it could be that your visual style affects what you choose to study. One of us (Martin) went to university to study physics, but left with a psychology degree. As it happens, his illusion perception is much stronger than normal.

Training your illusion skills

Despite all these individual differences, researchers have always thought that you have no choice over whether you see the illusion. Our recent research challenges this idea.

Radiologists need to be able to rapidly spot important information in medical scans. Doing this often means they have to ignore surrounding detail.

Radiologists train extensively, so does this make them better at seeing through illusions? We found it does. We studied 44 radiologists, compared to over 100 psychology and medical students.

Below is one of our images. The orange circle on the left is 6% smaller than the one on the right. Most people in the study saw it as larger.

Here is another image. Most non-radiologists still saw the left one as bigger. Yet, it is 10% smaller. Most radiologists got this one right.

It was not until the difference was nearly 18%, as shown in the image below, that most non-radiologists saw through the illusion.

Radiologists are not entirely immune to the illusion, but are much less susceptible. We also looked at radiologists just beginning training. Their illusion perception was no better than normal. It seems radiologists’ superior perception is a result of their extensive training.

According to current theories of expertise, this shouldn’t happen. Becoming an expert in chess, for example, makes you better at chess but not anything else. But our findings suggest that becoming an expert in medical image analysis also makes you better at seeing through some optical illusions.

There is plenty left to find out. Perhaps the most intriguing possibility is that training on optical illusions can improve radiologists’ skills at their own work.

So, how can you learn to see through illusions? Simple. Just five years of medical school, then seven more of radiology training and this skill can be yours too.

Martin Doherty, Associate Professor in Psychology, University of East Anglia and Radoslaw Wincza, Lecturer in Behavioural Sciences, University of Central Lancashire. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost science station accomplished a lot on the Moon in the last two weeks. Among other things, its instruments drilled into the Moon's surface, tested an extraterrestrial vacuum cleaner, and showed that future missions could use GPS navigation signals to navigate on the lunar surface.

These are all important achievements, gathering data that could shed light on the Moon's formation and evolution, demonstrating new ways of collecting samples on other planets, and revealing the remarkable reach of the US military's GPS satellite network.

But the pièce de résistance for Firefly's first Moon mission might be the daily dose of imagery that streamed down from the Blue Ghost spacecraft. A suite of cameras recorded the cloud of dust created as the lander's engine plume blew away the uppermost layer of lunar soil as it touched down March 2 in Mare Crisium, or the Sea of Crises. This location is in a flat basin situated on the upper right quadrant of the side of the Moon always facing the Earth.

Other images from Firefly's lander showed the craft shooting tethered electrodes out onto the lunar surface, like a baseball outfielder trying to throw out a runner at home plate. Firefly's cameras also showed the lander's drill as it began to probe several meters into the Moon's crust.

The first Blue Ghost mission is part of NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program established in 2018 to partner with US companies for cargo transportation to the Moon. Firefly is one of 13 companies eligible to compete for CLPS missions, precursors to future astronaut landings on the Moon under NASA's Artemis program.

Now, Firefly finds itself at the top of the pack of firms seeking to gain a foothold at the Moon.

Blue Ghost landed just after sunrise at Mare Crisium, an event shown in the blow video captured with four cameras mounted on the lander to observe how its engine plume interacted with loose soil on the lunar surface. The information will be useful as NASA plans to land astronauts on the Moon in the coming years.

“Although the data is still preliminary, the 3,000-plus images we captured appear to contain exactly the type of information we were hoping for in order to better understand plume-surface interaction and learn how to accurately model the phenomenon based on the number, size, thrust and configuration of the engines,” said Rob Maddock, project manager for NASA's SCALPSS experiment.

One of the vehicle's payloads, named Lunar PlanetVac, dropped from the bottom of the lander and released a blast of gas to blow fine-grained lunar soil into a collection chamber for sieving. Provided by a company named Honeybee Robotics, this device could be used as a cheaper alternative to other sample collection methods, such as robotic arms, on future planetary science missions.

After two weeks of pioneering work, the Blue Ghost lander fell into darkness Sunday when the Sun sank below the horizon, robbing it of solar power and plunging temperatures below minus 200° Fahrenheit (148°Celcius). The spacecraft's internal electronics likely won't survive the two-week-long lunar night.

A precoded message from Blue Ghost marked the moment Sunday afternoon, signaling a transition to "monument mode."

"Goodnight friends," Blue Ghost radioed Firefly's mission control center in Central Texas. "After exchanging our final bits of data, I will hold vigil in this spot in Mare Crisium to watch humanity's continued journey to the stars. Here, I will outlast your mightiest rivers, your tallest mountains, and perhaps even your species as we know it."

Blue Ghost's legacy is now secure as the first fully successful commercial lunar lander. Its two-week mission was perhaps just as remarkable for what didn't happen as it was for what did. The spacecraft encountered no significant problems on its transit to the Moon, its final descent, or during surface operations.

One of the few surprises of the mission was that the lander got hotter a little sooner than engineers predicted. At lunar noon, when the Sun is highest in the sky, temperatures can soar to 250° F (121° C).

"We started noticing that the lander was getting hotter than we expected, and we couldn't really figure out why, because it was a little early for lunar noon," Ray Allensworth, Firefly's spacecraft program director, told Ars. "So we went back and started evaluating and realized that the crater that we landed next to was actually reflecting a really significant amount of heat. So we went back and we updated our thermal models, incorporated that crater into it, and it matched the environment we were seeing."

Early Friday morning, the Blue Ghost spacecraft captured the first high-definition views of a total solar eclipse from the Moon. At the same time that skywatchers on Earth were looking up to see the Moon turn an eerie blood red, Firefly's cameras were looking back at us as the Sun, Earth, and Moon moved into alignment and darkness fell at Mare Crisium.

Diamond ring

The eclipse was a bonus for Firefly. It just happened to occur during the spacecraft's two-week mission at the Moon, the timing of which was dependent on numerous factors, ranging from the readiness of the Blue Ghost lander to weather conditions at its launch site in Florida.

"We weren't actually planning to have an eclipse until a few months prior to our launch, when we started evaluating and realizing that an eclipse was happening right before lunar sunset," Allensworth said. "So luckily, that gave us some time to work some procedures and basically set up what we wanted to take images of, what cameras we wanted to run."

The extra work paid off. Firefly released an image Friday showing a glint of sunlight reaching around the curvature of the Earth, some 250,000 miles (402,000 kilometers) away. This phenomenon is known as the "diamond ring" and is a subject of pursuit for many eclipse chasers, who travel to far-flung locations for a few minutes of totality.

The Blue Ghost spacecraft, named for a species of firefly, took eclipse chasing to new heights. Not only did it see the Earth block the Sun from an unexplored location on the Moon, but the lander fell into shadow for 2 hours and 16 minutes, about 18 times longer than the longest possible total solar eclipse on the Earth.

The eclipse presented challenges for Firefly's engineers monitoring the mission from Texas. Temperatures at the spacecraft's airless landing site plummeted as darkness took hold, creating what Allensworth called a "pseudo lunar night."

"We were seeing those temperatures rapidly start dropping," Allensworth said Friday. "So it was kind of an interesting game of to play with the hardware to keep everything in its temperature bounds but also still powered on and capturing data."

Shaping up

Using navigation cameras and autonomous guidance algorithms, the spacecraft detected potential hazards at its original landing site and diverted to a safer location more than 230 feet (70 meters) away, according to Allensworth.

Finally happy with the terrain below, Blue Ghost's computer sent the command for landing, powered by eight thrusters pulsing in rapid succession to control the craft's descent rate. The landing was gentler than engineers anticipated, coming down at less than 2.2 mph (1 meter per second).

According to preliminary data, Blue Ghost settled in a location just outside of its 330-foot (100-meter) target landing ellipse, probably due to the last-minute divert maneuvers ordered by the vehicle's hazard avoidance system.

"It looks like we're slightly out of it, but it's really OK," Allensworth said. "NASA has told us, more than anything, that they want us to make sure we land softly... They seem comfortable where we're at."

Firefly originally intended to develop a spacecraft based on the design of Israel's Beresheet lander, which was the first private mission to attempt a landing on the Moon in 2019. The spacecraft crashed, and Firefly opted to go with a new design more responsive to NASA's requirements.

"Managing the center of gravity and the mass of the lander is most significant, and that informs a lot of how it physically takes shape," Allensworth said. "So we did want to keep certain things in mind about that, and that really is what led to the lander being wider, shorter, broader. We have these bigger foot pads on there. All of those things were very intentional to help make the lander as stable and predictable as possible."

These design choices must happen early in a spacecraft's development. Landing on the Moon comes with numerous complications, including an often-uneven surface and the lack of an atmosphere, rendering parachutes useless. A lander targeting the Moon must navigate itself to a safe landing site without input from the ground.

The Odysseus, or Nova-C, lander built by Intuitive Machines snapped one of its legs and fell over on its side after arriving on the Moon last year. The altimeter on Odysseus failed, causing it to come down with too much horizontal velocity. The lander returned some scientific data from the Moon and qualified as a partial success. The spacecraft couldn't recharge its batteries after landing on its side, and Odysseus shut down a few days after landing.

The second mission by Intuitive Machines reached the Moon on March 6, but it suffered the same fate. After tipping over, the Athena lander succumbed to low power within hours, preventing it from accomplishing its science mission for NASA.

The landers designed by Intuitive Machines are tall and skinny, towering more than 14 feet (4.3 meters) tall with a width of about 5.2 feet (1.6 meters). The Blue Ghost vehicle is short and squatty in shape—about 6.6 feet tall and 11.5 feet wide (2-by-3.5 meters). Firefly's approach requires fewer landing legs than Intuitive Machines—four instead of six.

Steve Altemus, co-founder and CEO of Intuitive Machines, defended the design of his company's lander in a press briefing after the second lunar landing tip-over earlier this month. The Nova-C lander isn't too top-heavy for a safe landing because most of its cargo attaches to the bottom of the spacecraft, and for now, Altemus said Intuitive Machines is not considering a redesign.

Intuitive Machines stacked its two fuel and oxidizer tanks on top of each other, resulting in a taller vehicle. The Nova-C vehicle uses super-cold methane and liquid oxygen propellants, enabling a fast journey to the Moon over just a few days. The four propellant tanks on Blue Ghost are arranged in a diagonal configuration, with two containing hydrazine fuel and two holding an oxidizer called nitrogen tetroxide. Firefly's Blue Ghost took about six weeks to travel from launch until landing.

The design trade-off means Firefly's lander is heavier, with four tanks instead of two, according to Will Coogan, Blue Ghost's chief engineer at Firefly. By going with a stockier lander design, Firefly needed to install four tanks because the spacecraft's fuel and oxidizer have different densities. If Firefly went with just two tanks side-by-side, the spacecraft's center of mass would change continually as it burns propellant during the final descent to the Moon, creating an unnecessary problem for the lander's guidance, navigation, and control system to overcome.

"You want to avoid that," Coogan told Ars before Blue Ghost's launch. "What you can do is you can either get four tanks and have fuel and oxidizer at diagonal angles, and then you're always centered, or you can stay with two tanks, and you can stack them."

The four landing legs on the Blue Ghost vehicle have shock-absorbing feet, with bowl-shaped pads able to bend if the lander comes down on a rock or a slope.

"If we did come in a little bit faster, we needed the legs to be able to take that, so we tested the legs really significantly on the ground," Allensworth said. "We basically loaded them up on a makeshift weight bench at different angles and slammed it into the ground, slammed it into concrete, slammed it into regular simulant rocks, boulders, at different angles to really characterize what the legs could do.

"It's actually really funny, because one of the edge cases that we didn't test is if we came down very lightly, with almost no acceleration," she said. "And that was the case that the lander landed in. I was joking with our structural engineer that he wasted all his time."

Proof positive

Firefly delivered 10 NASA-sponsored science and technology demonstration experiments to the lunar surface, operating under contract with NASA's CLPS program. CLPS builds on the commercial, service-based business model of NASA's commercial cargo and crew program for transportation to the International Space Station.

NASA officials knew this approach was risky. The last landing on the Moon by a US spacecraft was the last Apollo mission in 1972, and most of the companies involved in CLPS are less than 20 years old, with little experience in deep space missions.

A Pittsburgh company named Astrobotic failed to reach the Moon on its first attempt in January 2024. The next month, Houston-based Intuitive Machines landed its Nova-C spacecraft on the lunar surface, but it tipped over after one of its legs snapped at the moment of touchdown.

Firefly, based in Cedar Park, Texas, was the third company to try a landing. Originally established as a rocket developer, Firefly signed up to be a CLPS provider and won a $101 million contract with NASA in 2021 to transport a government-funded science package to the Moon. NASA's instruments aboard the Blue Ghost lander cost about $44 million.

The successful landing of Firefly's Blue Ghost earlier this month buoyed NASA's expectations for CLPS. "Overall, it's been a fabulous, wonderful proof positive that the CLPS model does work," said Brad Bailey, assistant deputy associate administrator for exploration in NASA's Science Mission Directorate.

NASA has seven more CLPS missions on contract. The next could launch as soon as August when Blue Origin plans to send its first Blue Moon lander to the Moon. NASA has booked two more Blue Ghost missions with Firefly and two more landing attempts with Intuitive Machines, plus one more flight by Astrobotic and one lander from Draper Laboratory.

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Plastics are great, except when it comes to making or disposing of them. Production generally requires the use of chemicals derived from fossil fuels, and so helps to continue our reliance on them. And the final products are generally not biodegradable, so they tend to stick around despite breaking down into ever smaller fragments.

Biology might ultimately provide a solution, however. Researchers have identified bacteria that evolved the ability to digest some plastics. And improvements in our ability to design proteins have allowed us to make new enzymes that can chew up plastics.

This week brings some progress on the other side of the equation, with a team of Korean researchers describing how they've engineered a bacterial strain that can make a useful polymer starting with nothing but glucose as fuel. The system they developed is based on an enzyme that the bacteria use when they're facing unusual nutritional conditions, and it can be tweaked to make a wide range of polymers.

Handling a carbon surplus

The researchers focused on the system bacterial cells use for producing polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs). These chemicals are formed when the bacterial cells continue to have a good supply of carbon sources and energy, but they lack some other key nutrients needed to grow and divide. Under these circumstances, the cell will link together small molecules that contain a handful of carbons, forming a much larger polymer. When nutritional conditions improve, the cell can simply break down the polymer and use the individual molecules it contained.

The striking thing about this system is that it's not especially picky about the identity of the molecules it links into the polymer. So far, over 150 different small molecules have been found incorporated into PHAs. It appears that the enzyme that makes the polymer, PHA synthase, only cares about two things: whether the molecule can form an ester bond (PHAs are polyesters), and whether it can be linked to a molecule that's commonly used as an intermediate in the cell's biochemistry, coenzume A.

Normally, PHA synthase forms links between molecules that run through an oxygen atom. But it's also possible to form a related chemical link that instead runs through a nitrogen atom, like those found on amino acids. There were no known enzymes, however, that catalyze these reactions. So, the researchers decided to test whether any existing enzymes could be induced to do something they don't normally do.

The researchers started with an enzyme from Clostridium that links chemicals to Coenzyme A that has a reputation for not being picky about the chemicals it interacts with. This worked reasonably well at linking amino acids to Coenzyme A. For linking the amino acids together, they used an enzyme from Pseudomonas that had four different mutations that expanded the range of molecules it would use as reaction materials. Used in a test tube, the system worked: Amino acids were linked together in a polymer.

The question was whether it would work in cells. Unfortunately, one of the two enzymes turns out to be mildly toxic to E. coli, slowing its growth. So, the researchers evolved a strain of E. coli that could tolerate the protein. With both of these two proteins, the cells produced small amounts of an amino acid polymer. If they added an excess of an amino acid to the media the cells were growing in, the polymer would be biased toward incorporating that amino acid.

Boosting polymer production

However, the yield of the polymer by weight of bacteria was fairly low. "It was reasoned that these [amino acids] might be more efficiently incorporated into the polymer if generated within the cells from a suitable carbon source," the researchers write. So, the researchers put in extra copies of the genes needed to produce one specific amino acid (lysine). That worked, producing more polymer, with a higher percentage of the polymer being lysine.

Most of the polymers incorporated a fair amount of lactic acid, which can also form ester bonds. There's normally lots of lactic acid in the cell since it's one of the potential products of glucose metabolism. But the researchers knocked out the gene that encodes the primary enzyme that produces with lactic acid, dramatically cutting down the amount incorporated into the polymer.

The researchers also tried a variety of conditions, showing that they could create polymers that were a mixture of two different amino acid monomers, and incorporating non-amino acids into the mixture. By adding a few additional enzymes to the E. coli strain, they managed to boost the yield of the polymer by weight to over 50 percent. They also showed that you could introduce mutations to the enzyme that does the polymerization, and it would selectively incorporate more of a specific amino acid into the resulting polymer.

Overall, the system they develop is remarkably flexible, able to incorporate a huge range of chemicals into a polymer. This should allow them to tune the resulting plastic across a wide range of properties. And, considering the bonds were formed via enzyme, the resulting polymer will almost certainly be biodegradable.

There are, however, some negatives. The process doesn't allow complete control over what gets incorporated into the polymer. You can bias it toward a specific mix of amino acids or other chemicals, but you can't entirely stop the enzyme from incorporating random chemicals from the cell's metabolism into the polymer at some level. There's also the issue of purifying the polymer from all the rest of the cell components before incorporating it into manufacturing. Production is also relatively slow compared to large-scale industrial production.

So, it's not quite ready to take over global plastic production. But the work does do a great job of highlighting the potential of bio-based manufacturing.

Nature Chemical Biology, 2025. DOI: 10.1038/s41589-025-01842-2  (About DOIs).

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Many variables can affect the quality of a steaming cup of espresso, including so-called "channeling" during the brewing process, in which the water doesn't seep uniformly through the grounds but branches off in various preferential paths instead. This significantly reduces the extraction yield and thus the quality of the final brew. Scientists from the University of Warsaw have gleaned insights into the underlying physics of channeling that will help coffee lovers achieve more consistent results when brewing espresso. They presented their preliminary findings at the American Physical Society's Global Physics Summit in Anaheim, California, this morning.

As previously reported, there's an official industry standard for brewing espresso, courtesy of the Specialty Coffee Association, which sets out strict guidelines for its final volume (25–35 mL, or roughly 1 ounce) and preparation. The water must be heated to 92° to 95°C (197° to 203°F) and forced (at a specific pressure) through a bed of 7 to 9 grams (about a quarter of an ounce) of finely ground coffee for 20 to 30 seconds. But most coffee shops don't follow this closely, as the brewing machines allow baristas to configure water pressure, temperature, and other key variables to their liking. The result of all those variations in technique is a great deal of variability in quality and taste.

Naturally, scientists find this fascinating. For instance, in 2020, Christopher Hendon's lab at the University of Oregon helped devise a mathematical model for brewing the perfect cup of espresso over and over while minimizing waste. Hendon is a computational materials chemist, and his lab holds regular coffee hours for the Eugene campus community. The researchers focused on an easily measurable property known as the extraction yield (EY): the fraction of coffee that dissolves into the final beverage. That, in turn, depends on controlling water flow and pressure as the liquid percolates through the coffee grounds.

Hendon et al. based their model on how lithium ions propagate through a battery's electrodes, akin to how caffeine molecules dissolve from coffee grounds. They concluded that the most reproducible thing you can do is use fewer coffee beans and opt for a coarser grind with a bit less water; brew time was largely irrelevant.

Three years later, Hendon's team showed how adding a single squirt of water to coffee beans before grinding can significantly reduce the static electric charge on the resulting grounds. This in turn reduces clumping during brewing, yielding less waste and the strong, consistent flow needed to produce a tasty cup of espresso. Good baristas already employ the water trick; it's known as the Ross droplet technique. But this was the first time scientists have rigorously tested that well-known hack and measured the actual charge on different types of coffee.

Coffee-curious

This latest work focuses less on the chemical changes that occur during the brewing process and more on the mechanical and physical processes. "To a physicist, brewing coffee is a reactive flow through a complex porous medium that undergoes dynamic reconfiguration—a fascinatingly complex phenomenon," Maciej Lisicki, a physicist at the University of Warsaw in Poland, told Ars. "This exploration is in part motivated by many myths or assumptions that function in the coffee community. Since many people have a religious attitude towards their favorite drink, there are beliefs about the details of the process (and the do's and don'ts), which we would love to clarify and learn for sure."

There are many variables during the brewing process that can affect the quality of a cup of espresso.

Mirek Kazmierczak

 

The ability to control for such variables will make it easier to make the perfect cup every time.

Mirek Kazmierczak

 

Lisicki leads a team of coffee aficionados, which meshes nicely with the lab's long interest in culinary fluid dynamics and their love of the annual Warsaw Coffee Festival. When a barista friend asked them about the phenomenon of channeling, the team decided to investigate. "Channeling is something we actually want to mitigate," said Lisicki. "It is something the barista cannot control, so by minimizing the chance that a channel appears, you maximize the repeatability."

Channeling is similar to the phenomenon of dissolving rocks, another example of a porous medium that colleagues have studied. "We thought it would be a simple and easy project where we could apply their methods and quickly obtain valuable results, but it turns out that the process of coffee brewing is much more complex," Franciszek Myck, who presented results at the APS meeting, told Ars. "It turns out we had to learn quite a lot on the way to be able to decompose the process of brewing into small steps and understand what is going on, both in terms of the physics and the mechanics of the machine, to be able to gain full control of the process, from the moment a roasted grain enters the lab to the magical liquid filling the mouth with all its complex aromas."

The team initially tried to use a simple home coffee machine for their experiments but eventually partnered with Coffeelab, a major roaster in Poland, and CoffeeMachineSale, the largest global distributor of roasting gear. This brought industrial-grade equipment and much professional coffee expertise to the project: state-of-the-art grinders, for instance, and a cafe-grade espresso machine, tricked out with a pressure sensor, flow meter, and a set of scales. The entire setup was connected to laboratory laptops via a microchip and controlled with custom software that allowed the scientists to precisely monitor pressure, mass, and water flowing through the coffee.

Team members prepare another experiment

Mirek Kazmierczak

 

Coffee lovers, unite!

Mirek Kazmierczak

 

The scientists measured the total dissolved solids to determine the rate at which coffee is dissolved, comparing brews without a channel to those with artificially induced channels. They found that, indeed, channeling adversely affected extraction yields. However, channeling does not have an impact on the rate at which water flows through the espresso puck.

"That is mostly due to the structural rearrangement of coffee grounds under pressure," Lisicki said. "When the dry coffee puck is hit with water under high pressure—as high as 10 times the atmospheric pressure, so roughly the pressure 100 meters below the sea surface—it compacts and swells up. So even though water can find a preferential path, there is still significant resistance limiting the flow."

The team is now factoring their results into numerical and theoretical models of porous bed extraction. They are also compiling an atlas of the different kinds of espresso pucks based on micro-CT imaging of the coffee.

"What we have found can help the coffee industry brew with more knowledge," said Myck. "Many people follow procedures based on unconfirmed intuitions or claims which prove to have confirmation. What's more, we have really interesting data regarding pressure-induced flow in coffee, the results of which have been a surprise to us as well. Our approach may let us finally understand the magic that happens inside your coffee machine."

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Monday, 17 March

• Who: Galactic Energy
• What: Ceres 1
• When: 08:09 UTC
• Where: Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center
• Why: Galactic Energy will launch a Ceres 1 rocket carrying the Zhongke 06 and 07 satellites into orbit. Both satellites will be part of the AIRSAT constellation, which provides Earth surface monitoring data services.

Tuesday, 18 March

• Who: Rocket Lab
• What: Electron
• When: 01:31 UTC
• Where: Mahia, New Zealand
• Why: Rocket Lab will use an Electron rocket to launch five Kinesis satellites to orbit. The satellites will join a constellation of satellites to provide Internet of Things (IoT) communication services.

• Who: SpaceX
• What: Falcon 9
• When: 18:09 – 22:09 UTC
• Where: Florida, US
• Why: SpaceX will launch a Falcon 9 rocket carrying 21 Starlink satellites that carry the designation Starlink Group 12-25. Among the 21 satellites are 13 Direct-to-Cell satellites which can provide phone services directly to supported devices, without the need for a Starlink receiver, over LTE.

Friday, 21 March

• Who: Galactic Energy
• What: Ceres 1
• When: 11:10 UTC
• Where: Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center
• Why: Galactic Energy will use a Ceres 1 rocket to launch an unknown payload in a mission called Vernal Ascent.

Saturday, 22 March

• Who: SpaceX
• What: Falcon 9
• When: 20:45 – 00:45 UTC
• Where: California, US
• Why: SpaceX will use a Falcon 9 to launch 23 Starlink satellites, designated Starlink Group 11-7. Following the launch, we can expect SpaceX to attempt a landing of the first stage of the Falcon 9, so that it can be reused.

Recap

• The first mission we got last week saw China launch a Long March 3B/E rocket carrying the Communications Engineering Test Satellite 15 (TJS 15). It will be used for satellite communications and radio and television broadcasting. Additionally, it will assist in data transmission and carry out technical tests and verifications. You can watch the launch on YouTube.
• The second mission also came from China when a Long March 8 rocket took off with 18 satellites for the SpaceSail internet constellation that rivals Starlink. As an end goal, this constellation of satellites will consist of more than 14,000 low Earth orbit broadband satellites. You can check out this launch on YouTube.
• Next, SpaceX used a Falcon 9 to launch NASA’s SPHEREx and PUNCH missions. SPHEREx will produce four complete all-sky maps to help astronomers better understand the universe, while PUNCH will focus on the Sun’s outer atmosphere, called the corona, to learn how it generates solar wind.

• For the fourth mission, we got SpaceX launching a Falcon 9 carrying 21 Starlink satellites to a low Earth orbit. This batch is Starlink Group 12-21. This included 13 Direct-to-Cell satellites. You can watch the event on the SpaceX website.
• Next up, SpaceX launched another Falcon 9, but this time, it was carrying a crew in a Dragon capsule to the International Space Station. Aboard were NASA astronauts Anne McClain, Nichole Ayers, JAXA astronaut Takuya Onishi, and Russian cosmonaut Kirill Peskov. They are replacing the astronauts who had been on the ISS for an extended duration. You can view the launch on the SpaceX website.
• The sixth launch of the week came from Rocket Lab which launched an Electron rocket carrying 9 QPS-SAR satellites for the Japanese firm iQPS. You can watch it on Rocket Lab’s website.
• China launched a Long March 2D rocket carrying the SuperView Neo 3-02 satellite. This is an Earth observation satellite with a 130 km imaging swatch and a 0.5 km resolution. You can see the launch on YouTube.
• The penultimate launch was from SpaceX which launched a Falcon 9 as part of the Transporter-13 mission. It was a rideshare mission that saw 74 smallsats launched into a Sun-synchronous orbit. The main payloads were SpaceEye-T, an Earth observation satellite for Satrec Initiative, and Clarity 1, a VLEO Earth observation satellite for Albedo. You can view this launch on SpaceX’s website.
• The final mission saw SpaceX launch a Falcon 9 carrying 23 Starlink satellites to a low Earth orbit. This batch was Starlink Group 12-16. Among them, it had 13 Direct-to-Cell satellites. You can watch the launch on the SpaceX website.

That's all for this week! Be sure to check in next time for more exciting updates!

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Biohybrid robots work by combining biological components like muscles, plant material, and even fungi with non-biological materials. While we are pretty good at making the non-biological parts work, we’ve always had a problem with keeping the organic components alive and well. This is why machines driven by biological muscles have always been rather small and simple—up to a couple centimeters long and typically with only a single actuating joint.

“Scaling up biohybrid robots has been difficult due to the weak contractile force of lab-grown muscles, the risk of necrosis in thick muscle tissues, and the challenge of integrating biological actuators with artificial structures,” says Shoji Takeuchi, a professor at the Tokyo University, Japan. Takeuchi led a research team that built a full-size, 18 centimeter-long biohybrid human-like hand with all five fingers driven by lab-grown human muscles.

Keeping the muscles alive

Out of all the roadblocks that keep us from building large-scale biohybrid robots, necrosis has probably been the most difficult to overcome. Growing muscles in a lab usually means a liquid medium to supply nutrients and oxygen to muscle cells seeded on petri dishes or applied to gel scaffoldings. Since these cultured muscles are small and ideally flat, nutrients and oxygen from the medium can easily reach every cell in the growing culture.

When we try to make the muscles thicker and therefore more powerful, cells buried deeper in those thicker structures are cut off from nutrients and oxygen, so they die, undergoing necrosis. In living organisms, this problem is solved by the vascular network. But building artificial vascular networks in lab-grown muscles is still something we can’t do very well. So, Takeuchi and his team had to find their way around the necrosis problem. Their solution was sushi rolling.

The team started by growing thin, flat muscle fibers arranged side by side on a petri dish. This gave all the cells access to nutrients and oxygen, so the muscles turned out robust and healthy. Once all the fibers were grown, Takeuchi and his colleagues rolled them into tubes called MuMuTAs (multiple muscle tissue actuators) like they were preparing sushi rolls. “MuMuTAs were created by culturing thin muscle sheets and rolling them into cylindrical bundles to optimize contractility while maintaining oxygen diffusion,” Takeuchi explains.

Movement in the MuMuTAs was triggered by delivering electrical signals through electrodes attached at both ends. These muscle sushi rolls could bend or rotate, depending on which fibers were contracted. Their contractile force was regulated by modulating the applied voltage.

Once the team made MuMuTAs work, they used five of them to actuate multi-jointed fingers in a robotic hand.

Rock-paper-scissors

The hand, suspended in a liquid medium, was 3D-printed out of plastic. Each finger had three joints and was actuated by a cable connected to a MuMuTA, five of which were located in the forearm. The MuMuTAs were installed in glass containers to limit the diffusion of the electric field, allowing each of them to be actuated separately. They were anchored to the plastic structure on the back end and connected to cables to drive the fingers at the front.

By selectively contracting the MuMuTAs, the hand could do various gestures, like the ones used in the rock, paper, scissors game, or manipulate objects like a pipette. All this was possible because MuMuTAs were strong compared to typical lab-grown muscle systems, with each generating 8 mN of contractile force which is more or less enough to lift a small paperclip. On top of that, Takeuchi’s sushi rolling idea boosted the muscles’ longevity, since MuMuTAs could be unrolled after use to provide oxygen and nutrition to the cells.

The team bumped into some limitations, though. The first issue was that the fingers could only actuate in one direction—the muscles driving them contracted in response to electrical signals, but they only returned to their original position due to the buoyancy of the material. (We mostly use a second set of muscles to return joints to their original position.) Takeuchi suggested one option to solve that would be using an elastic material in the joints, which would make the fingers bounce back faster. The other option he mentioned was adding five more antagonistic MuMuTAs to achieve bidirectional movement—the solution used by the real human hand.

The second problem was that MuMuTAs and the entire hand they actuated couldn’t work without the liquid suspension. “To transition to a dry environment, future developments will need to incorporate artificial nutrient delivery systems and protective scaffolds to maintain tissue viability outside the liquid medium,” Takeuchi says.

But perhaps the most obvious issue with using biological muscles in robots remained unresolved: After making gestures and manipulating objects for about 10 minutes, the biohybrid hand got tired.

Biohybrid robots’ gym

The team noticed the signs of fatigue in MuMuTAs when they were testing how much force the muscles would generate in response to higher voltages. When Takeuchi and his colleagues pushed the MuMuTAs really hard, they saw the contractile force the muscles could generate dropped after a handful of tests. Things went back to normal once the hand rested in its medium for about an hour. This happened even though the muscles grown in petri dishes never worked nearly as hard as they would if they ended up in an actual human being. So, overall, they were rather weak.

The contractile force per unit area Takeuchi achieved in his lab-grown muscles was 0.7 mN per square millimeter, which is not bad compared to other lab-grown muscles. They looked quite feeble, however, compared to living muscles that could generate roughly 6 mN per square millimeter. Takeuchi thinks the solution could be the one we all should be using: exercising.

“Just like natural muscles, engineered muscles may benefit from exercise, where repeated contractions enhance endurance and contractile strength over time,” Takeuchi suggests. Another option Takeuchi’s team proposed in the paper was using chemical growth factors, though. So, we can get them juiced to the gills instead.

Takeuchi’s work on the biohybrid robotic hand is published in Science Robotics: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/scirobotics.adr5512

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A general view of a hybrid minigrids station in Doma Town which is mainly powered by solar energy in Doma,

Nassarawa State, Nigeria on October 16, 2023.

Credit: Kola Sulaimon/AFP via Getty Images

To the people of Mbiabet Esieyere and Mbiabet Udouba in Nigeria’s deep south, sundown would mean children doing their homework by the glow of kerosene lamps, and the faint thrum of generators emanating from homes that could afford to run them. Like many rural communities, these two villages of fishermen and farmers in the community of Mbiabet, tucked away in clearings within a dense palm forest, had never been connected to the country’s national electricity grid.

Most of the residents had never heard of solar power either. When, in 2021, a renewable-energy company proposed installing a solar “mini-grid” in their community, the villagers scoffed at the idea of the sun powering their homes. “We didn’t imagine that something [like this] can exist,” says Solomon Andrew Obot, a resident in his early 30s.

The small installation of solar panels, batteries and transmission lines proposed by the company Prado Power would service 180 households in Mbiabet Esieyere and Mbiabet Udouba, giving them significantly more reliable electricity for a fraction of the cost of diesel generators. Village leaders agreed to the installation, though many residents remained skeptical. But when the panels were set up in 2022, lights blinked on in the brightly painted two-room homes and tan mud huts dotted sparsely through the community. At a village meeting in September, locals erupted into laughter as they recalled walking from house to house, turning on lights and plugging in phone chargers. “I [was] shocked,” Andrew Obot says.

Like many African nations, Nigeria has lagged behind Global North countries in shifting away from planet-warming fossil fuels and toward renewable energy. Solar power contributes just around 3 percent of the total electricity generated in Africa—though it is the world’s sunniest continent—compared to nearly 12 percent in Germany and 6 percent in the United States.

At the same time, in many African countries, solar power now stands to offer much more than environmental benefits. About 600 million Africans lack reliable access to electricity; in Nigeria specifically, almost half of the 230 million people have no access to electricity grids. Today, solar has become cheap and versatile enough to help bring affordable, reliable power to millions—creating a win-win for lives and livelihoods as well as the climate.

That’s why Nigeria is placing its bets on solar mini-grids—small installations that produce up to 10 megawatts of electricity, enough to power over 1,700 American homes—that can be set up anywhere. Crucially, the country has pioneered mini-grid development through smart policies to attract investment, setting an example for other African nations.

Nearly 120 mini-grids are now installed, powering roughly 50,000 households and reaching about 250,000 people. “Nigeria is actually like a poster child for mini-grid development across Africa,” says energy expert Rolake Akinkugbe-Filani, managing director of EnergyInc Advisors, an energy infrastructure consulting firm.

Though it will take more work—and funding—to expand mini-grids across the continent, Nigeria’s experience demonstrates that they could play a key role in weaning African communities off fossil-fuel-based power. But the people who live there are more concerned with another, immediate benefit: improving livelihoods. Affordable, reliable power from Mbiabet’s mini-grid has already supercharged local businesses, as it has in many places where nonprofits like Clean Technology Hub have supported mini-grid development, says Ifeoma Malo, the organization’s founder. “We’ve seen how that has completely transformed those communities.”

The African energy transition takes shape

Together, Africa’s countries account for less than 5 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions, and many experts, like Malo, take issue with the idea that they need to rapidly phase out fossil fuels; that task should be more urgent for the United States, China, India, the European countries and Russia, which create the bulk of emissions. Nevertheless, many African countries have set ambitious phase-out goals. Some have already turned to locally abundant renewable energy sources, like geothermal power from the Earth’s crust, which supplies nearly half of the electricity produced in Kenya, and hydropower, which creates more than 80 percent of the electricity in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia and Uganda.

But hydropower and geothermal work only where those resources naturally exist. And development of more geographically versatile power sources, like solar and wind, has progressed more slowly in Africa. Though solar is cheaper than fossil-fuel-derived electricity in the long term, upfront construction costs are often higher than they are for building new fossil-fuel power plants.

Getting loans to finance big-ticket energy projects is especially hard in Africa, too. Compared to Europe or the United States, interest rates for loans can be two to three times higher due to perceived risks—for instance, that cash-strapped utility companies, already struggling to collect bills from customers, won’t be able to pay back the loans. Rapid political shifts and currency fluctuations add to the uncertainty. To boot, some Western African nations such as Nigeria charge high tariffs on importing technologies such as solar panels. “There are challenges that are definitely hindering the pace at which renewable energy development could be scaling in the region,” says renewable energy expert Tim Reber of the Colorado-based US National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Some African countries are beginning to overcome these barriers and spur renewable energy development, notes Bruno Merven, an expert in energy systems modeling at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, coauthor of a look at renewable energy development in the Annual Review of Resource Economics. Super-sunny Morocco, for example, has phased out subsidies for gasoline and industrial fuel. South Africa is agreeing to buy power from new, renewable infrastructure that is replacing many coal plants that are now being retired.

Nigeria, where only about a quarter of the national grid generates electricity and where many turn to generators for power, is leaning on mini-grids—since expanding the national grid to its remote communities, scattered across an area 1.3 times the size of Texas, would cost a prohibitive amount in the tens of billions of dollars. Many other countries are in the same boat. “The only way by which we can help to electrify the entire continent is to invest heavily in renewable energy mini-grids,” says Stephen Kansuk, the United Nations Development Program’s regional technical advisor for Africa on climate change mitigation and energy issues.

Experts praise the steps Nigeria has taken to spur such development. In 2016, the country’s Electricity Regulatory Commission provided legal guidelines on how developers, electricity distribution companies, regulators and communities can work together to develop the small grids. This was accompanied by a program through which organizations like the World Bank, the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet, Bezos Earth Fund and the Rockefeller Foundation could contribute funds, making mini-grid investments less financially risky for developers.

Solar power was also made more attractive by a recent decision by Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to remove a long-standing government subsidy on petroleum products. Fossil-fuel costs have been soaring since, for vehicles as well as the generators that many communities rely on. Nigeria has historically been Africa’s largest crude oil producer, but fuel is now largely unaffordable for the average Nigerian, including those living in rural areas, who often live on less than $2 a day. In the crude-oil-rich state of Akwa Ibom, where the Mbiabet villages are located, gasoline was 1,500 naira per liter (around $1) at the time of publishing. “Now that subsidies have come off petrol,” says Akinkugbe-Filani, “we’re seeing a lot more people transition to alternative sources of energy.”

Mini-grids take off

To plan a mini-grid in Nigeria, developers often work with government agencies that have mapped out ideal sites: sunny places where there are no plans to extend the national grid, ensuring that there’s a real power need.

The next step is getting communities on board, which can take months. Malo recalls a remote Indigenous village in the hills of Adamawa state in Nigeria’s northeast, where locals have preserved their way of life for hundreds of years and are wary of outsiders. Her team had almost given up trying to liaise with reluctant male community leaders and decided to try reaching out to the women. The women, it turned out, were fascinated by the technology and how it could help them, especially at night — to fetch water from streams, to use the bathroom and to keep their children safe from snakes. “We find that if we convince them, they’re able to go and convince their husbands,” Malo says.

The Mbiabet community took less convincing. Residents were drawn to the promise of cheap, reliable electricity and its potential to boost local businesses.

Like many other mini-grids, the one in Mbiabet benefited from a small grant, this one from the Rocky Mountain Institute, a US-based nonprofit focused on renewable energy adoption. The funds allowed residents to retain 20 percent ownership of the mini-grid and reduced upfront costs for Prado Power, which built the panels with the help of local laborers.

On a day in late September, it’s a sunny afternoon, though downpours from the days before have made their imprint on the ground. There are no paved roads and today, the dirt road leading through the tropical forest into the cluster of villages is unnavigable by car. At one point, we build an impromptu bridge of grass and vegetation across a sludgy impasse; the last stretch of the journey is made on foot. It would be costly and labor-intensive to extend the national grid here.

Palm trees give way to tin roofs propped up by wooden poles, and Andrew Obot is waiting at the meeting point. He was Mbiabet’s vice youth president when Prado Power first contacted the community; now he’s the site manager. He steers his okada—a local motorbike—up the bumpy red dirt road to go see the solar panels.

Along the way, we see transmission lines threading through thick foliage. “That’s the solar power,” shouts Andrew Obot over the drone of the okada engine. All the lines were built by Prado Power to supply households in the two villages.

We enter a grassy clearing where three rows of solar panels sit behind wire gates. Collectively, the 39 panels have a capacity of over 20 kilowatts—enough to power just one large, energy-intensive American household but more than enough for the lightbulbs, cooker plates and fans in the 180 households in Mbiabet Esieyere and Mbiabet Udouba.

Whereas before, electricity was more conservatively used, now it is everywhere. An Afrobeats tune blares from a small barbershop on the main road winding through Mbiabet Esieyere. Inside, surrounded by walls plastered with shiny posters of trending hairstyles — including a headshot of popular musician Davido with the tagline “BBC—Big Boyz Cutz”—two young girls sit on a bench near a humming fan, waiting for their heads to be shaved.

The salon owner, Christian Aniefiok Asuquo, started his business two years ago when he was 16, just before the panels were installed. Back then, his appliances were powered by a diesel generator, which he would fill with 2,000 naira worth (around $1.20) of fuel daily. This would last around an hour. Now, he spends just 2,000 naira a month on electricity. “I feel so good,” he says, and his customers, too, are happy. He used to charge 500 naira ($0.30) per haircut, but now charges 300 naira ($0.18) and still makes a profit. He has more customers these days.

For many Mbiabet residents, “it’s an overall boost in their economic development,” says Suleiman Babamanu, the Rocky Mountain Institute’s program director in Nigeria. Also helping to encourage residents to take full advantage of their newly available power is the installation of an “agro-processing hub,” equipped with crop-processing machines and a community freezer to store products like fish. Provided by the company Farm Warehouse in partnership with Prado Power, the hub is leased out to locals. It includes a grinder and fryer to process cassava—the community’s primary crop—into garri, a local food staple, which many of the village women sell to neighboring communities and at local markets.

The women are charged around 200 naira ($0.12) to process a small basin of garri from beginning to end. Sarah Eyakndue Monday, a 24-year-old cassava farmer, used to spend three to four hours processing cassava each day; it now takes her less than an hour. “It’s very easy,” she says with a laugh. She produces enough garri during that time to earn up to 50,000 naira ($30.25) a week—almost five times what she was earning before.

Prado Power also installed a battery system to save some power for nighttime (there’s a backup diesel generator should batteries become depleted during multiple overcast days). That has proved especially valuable to women in Mbiabet Esieyere and Mbiabet Udouba, who now feel safer. “Everywhere is ... brighter than before,” says Eyakndue Monday.

Other African communities have experienced similar benefits, according to Renewvia Energy, a US-based solar company. In a recent company-funded survey, 2,658 Nigerian and Kenyan households and business owners were interviewed before and after they got access to Renewvia’s mini-grids. Remarkably, the median income of Kenyan households had quadrupled. Instead of spending hours each day walking kilometers to collect drinking water, many communities were able to install electricity-powered wells or pumps, along with water purifiers.

“With all of that extra time, women in the community were able to either start their own businesses or just participate in businesses that already exist,” says Renewvia engineer Nicholas Selby, “and, with that, gain some income for themselves.”

Navigating mini-grid challenges

Solar systems require regular maintenance—replacing retired batteries, cleaning, and repairing and addressing technical glitches over the 20- to 25-year lifetime of a panel. Unless plans for care are built into a project, they risk failure. In some parts of India, for example, thousands of mini-grids installed by the government in recent decades have fallen into disrepair, according to a report provided to The Washington Post. Typically, state agencies have little long-term incentive to maintain solar infrastructure, Kansuk says.

Kansuk says this is less likely in situations where private companies that make money off the grids help to fund them, encouraging them to install high-quality devices and maintain them. It also helps to train locals with engineering skills so they can maintain the panels themselves—companies like Renewvia have done this at their sites. Although Prado Power hasn’t been able to provide such training to locals in Mbiabet or their other sites, they recruit locals like Andrew Obot to work as security guards, site managers and construction workers.

Over the longer term, demographic shifts may also leave some mini-grids in isolated areas abandoned—as in northern Nigeria, for instance, where banditry and kidnapping are forcing rural populations toward more urban settings. “That’s become a huge issue,” Malo says. Partly for this reason, some developers are focusing on building mini-grids in regions that are less prone to violence and have higher economic activity—often constructing interconnected mini-grids that supply multiple communities.

Eventually, those close enough to the national grid will likely be connected to the larger system, says Chibuikem Agbaegbu, a Nigeria-based climate and energy expert of the Africa Policy Research Institute. They can send their excess solar-sourced electricity into the main grid, thus making a region’s overall energy system greener and more reliable.

The biggest challenge for mini-grids, however, is cost. Although they tend to offer cheaper, more reliable electricity compared to fossil-fuel-powered generators, it is still quite expensive for many people — and often much more costly than power from national grids, which is frequently subsidized by African governments. Costs can be even higher when communities sprawl across large areas that are expensive to connect.

Mini-grid companies have to charge relatively high rates in order to break even, and many communities may not be buying enough power to make a mini-grid worthwhile for the developers — for instance, Kansuk says, if residents want electricity only for lighting and to run small household appliances.

Kansuk adds that this is why developers like Prado Power still rely on grants or other funding sources to subsidize construction costs so they can charge locals affordable prices for electricity. Another solution, as evidenced in Mbiabet, is to introduce industrial machinery and equipment in tandem with mini-grids to increase local incomes so that people can afford the electricity tariffs.

“For you to be able to really transform lives in rural communities, you need to be able to improve the business viability—both for the mini-grid and for the community,” says Babamanu. The Rocky Mountain Institute is part of an initiative that identifies suitable electrical products, from cold storage to rice mills to electric vehicle chargers, and supports their installation in communities with the mini-grids.

Spreading mini-grids across the continent

Energy experts believe that these kinds of solutions will be key for expanding mini-grids across Africa. Around 60 million people in the continent gained access to electricity through mini-grids between 2009 and 2019, in countries such as Kenya, Tanzania and Senegal, and the United Nations Development Program is working with a total of 21 African countries, Kansuk says, including Mali, Niger and Somalia, to incentivize private companies to develop mini-grids there.

But it takes more than robust policies to help mini-grids thrive. Malo says it would help if Western African countries removed import tariffs for solar panels, as many governments in Eastern Africa have done. And though Agbaegbu estimates that Nigeria has seen over $900 million in solar investments since 2018—and the nation recently announced $750 million more through a multinationally funded program that aims to provide over 17.5 million Nigerians with electricity access—it needs more. “If you look at what is required versus what is available,” says Agbaegbu, “you find that there’s still a significant gap.”

Many in the field argue that such money should come from more industrialized, carbon-emitting countries to help pay for energy development in Global South countries in ways that don’t add to the climate problem; some also argue for funds to compensate for damages caused by climate impacts, which hit these countries hardest. At the 2024 COP29 climate change conference, wealthy nations set a target of $300 billion in annual funding for climate initiatives in other countries by 2035—three times more than what they had previously pledged. But African countries alone need an estimated $200 billion per year by 2030 to meet their energy goals, according to the International Energy Agency.

Meanwhile, Malo adds, it’s important that local banks in countries like Nigeria also invest in mini-grid development, to lessen dependence on foreign financing. That’s especially the case in light of current freezes in USAID funding, she says, which has resulted in a loss of money for solar projects in Nigeria and other nations.

With enough support, Reber says, mini-grids—along with rooftop and larger solar projects—could make a sizable contribution to lowering carbon emissions in Africa. Those who already have the mini-grids seem convinced they’re on the path toward a better, economically richer future, and Babamanu knows of communities that have written letters to policymakers to express their interest.

Eyakndue Monday, the cassava farmer from Mbiabet, doesn’t keep her community’s news a secret. Those she has told now come to her village to charge their phones and watch television. “I told a lot of my friends that our village is ... better because of the light,” she says. “They were just happy.”

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More than 200 wildfires broke out in the southeastern US last week, marking an active start to the region’s annual fire season. A particularly large fire in a forest near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, forced dozens of evacuations and scorched more than 2,000 acres of land. Firefighters have largely contained the most severe blazes, but fire risk remains high in parts of the region.

Severe wind and an unusually long period of dryness in the Southeast have made it easier for wildfires to ignite and spread. Meanwhile, a weather disaster that hit last year may be helping supply ample fuel to keep the flames raging. In September, Hurricane Helene tore through the Southeast, dumping more than a foot of rain in some locations and knocking over hundreds of thousands of acres of trees across the region.

Now, these dried-out trees act as kindling and could block firefighters’ access to the fires. This deadly combination of hurricane-fueled destruction and drought is expected to get worse as climate change accelerates, experts say.

Wet to Dry Whiplash

Though I’m normally based on the East Coast, I spent all of last week in Southern California reporting on the aftermath of the fires that decimated parts of Los Angeles County in January (more stories on this to come). Many people think of the West as the US fire epicenter, which is true in some ways. But purely by numbers, the Southeast has more wildfires than any other part of the country in a given year, according to NASA.

These numerous and (mostly) small fires occur primarily in the spring and fall, with peak activity hitting between March and May. Fire is a natural part of ecosystems in the Southeast, often burning through weedy shrubs and enabling native plants to grow without as much competition. For people, most of the problems begin in what’s called the wildland-urban interface (WUI): A growing number of homeowners in the region live in extremely close proximity to forests and grasslands, where wildfires can easily encroach on property.

And abnormally dry conditions, like the ones that most of the Carolinas have been experiencing since last fall, can pose heightened risks to WUI communities if a fire ignites.

“It’s not typical for conditions to be as dry as they have been the past couple of months,” Lauren Lowman, an associate professor in environmental engineering at Wake Forest University, told me. “Anything from a lightning strike to [a] power line sparking to someone deciding to burn leaves in their backyard and it just sort of getting out of control can lead to a wildfire under those conditions.”

On Monday, police arrested a person for starting the Myrtle Beach fire by burning debris in her yard without taking necessary precautions to contain the fire, according to the South Carolina Forestry Commission. As I reported in November, droughts set up the ideal conditions for human-ignited fires to spread.

Dozens of other fires broke out in Georgia and western North Carolina, which were both hard-hit by Hurricane Helene. In some areas, the fallen trees can act as fuel and promote fire spread in the short and long term, according to Virginia Iglesias, who studies the effects of climate variability on social-environmental systems at University of Colorado Boulder.

“After the hurricane, there were lots of dead trees felled on the ground, and that allows for sunlight to reach the ground,” Iglesias said. “And with that, it’s easier for biomass to desiccate, promoting fire if there’s an ignition. That’s in the short term. Another consequence of these fires is that they represent an access issue for firefighters. So there are lots of logs blocking roads.”

This happened last week in North Carolina’s Polk County, where firefighters struggled to navigate between fallen trees and contain an almost 500-acre fire in the area, Blue Ridge Public Radio reports. These fallen trees can be a fire nuisance for years after a hurricane, particularly in the Southeast, where dried out pine needles are highly combustible.

For example, in 2018, Hurricane Michael decimated around 1.3 million acres of longleaf pine habitat in the Florida Panhandle, which subsequently dried out and fueled the Bertha Swamp Road Fire in 2022 that burned more than 33,000 acres.

Some fire experts are also concerned that the extra sunlight on the landscape could trigger the growth of plants like rhododendron and mountain laurel in the southern Appalachians, which burn intensely if they catch fire.

“And now we’ve got full sunlight on these areas that before didn’t get full sunlight,” Gary C. Wood, a retired North Carolina Forest Service worker who now coordinates wildfire management strategies for the Wildland Fire Leadership Council’s Southeast Region, told The Post and Courier. “So that stuff could really increase, growth-wise, and that’s gonna have a potential impact from a firefighting standpoint.”

Fighting Fire with Fire

While a wide body of research clearly shows that climate change is fueling more intense fires out West, scientists are still fleshing out the direct climate connection for blazes in the Southeast. But some studies do show that warming is setting up conditions that wildfires thrive in throughout the region.

“Droughts are expected to become more intense and more frequent in the Southeast and many other areas of the country because of climate change,” Iglesias said. This could dramatically increase the amount of forest burned in the southern Appalachians, according to a 2024 study.

To combat this, forest managers in this region often ignite planned, contained fires known as prescribed burns, which help clear out dry plants before they can fuel larger infernos. However, there are a few roadblocks to this strategy. More than 50 percent of the 751 million acres of forest land in the US is privately owned, and these owners decide how their land is managed. That means government agencies are required to get permission from homeowners before clearing downed trees following a storm or to allow prescribed burns on their land. There’s a growing push from some groups to help homeowners in North Carolina embrace this fire control strategy, Grist reports.

Another snag is that climate change could reduce the number of days that land managers can practice prescribed burning in the Southeast, according to a 2024 study. Vegetation must be dry enough to ignite and burn, but temperatures and winds should be moderately low to prevent the fire from getting out of control—conditions that are becoming less predictable as global temperatures rise. Like wildfires, prescribed burns can also release air pollution, which can negatively affect air quality. My colleague Lee Hedgepeth covered this issue, which is currently happening in Birmingham, Alabama.

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